CERTIFICATION
Je soussignée Madame ACACHA-ACAKPO
Hortensia Vicentia enseignante à l'Ecole Nationale Economie
Appliquée et de Management (ENEAM) certifie que le présent
mémoire a été rédigé par le nommé de
SOUZA Ghislain Fidèle Sènan sous mon entière
supervision.
En foi de quoi je lui délivre la présente
certification pour servir et valoir ce que de droit.
Fait à Cotonou,
le...............2012
La Tutrice de
mémoire
Dr
ACACHA-ACAKPO Hortensia Vicentia
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Dependent Variable: CAMS
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Method: ML - Binary Probit (Quadratic hill climbing)
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Date: 09/31/12 Time: 23:11
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Sample (adjusted): 1 300
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Included observations: 300 after adjustments
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Prediction Evaluation (success cutoff C = 0.5)
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Estimated
Equation
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Constant
Probability
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Dep=0
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Dep=1
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Total
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Dep=0
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Dep=1
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Total
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P(Dep=1)<=C
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94
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7
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101
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0
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0
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0
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P(Dep=1)>C
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5
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194
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199
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99
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201
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300
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Total
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99
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201
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300
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99
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201
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300
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Correct
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94
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194
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288
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0
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201
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201
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% Correct
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94.95
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96.52
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96.00
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0.00
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100.00
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67.00
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% Incorrect
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5.05
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3.48
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4.00
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100.00
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0.00
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33.00
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Total Gain*
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94.95
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-3.48
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29.00
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Percent Gain**
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94.95
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NA
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87.88
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Estimated
Equation
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Constant
Probability
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Dep=0
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Dep=1
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Total
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Dep=0
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Dep=1
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Total
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E(# of Dep=0)
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91.57
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8.05
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99.62
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32.67
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66.33
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99.00
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E(# of Dep=1)
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7.43
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192.95
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200.38
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66.33
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134.67
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201.00
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Total
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99.00
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201.00
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300.00
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99.00
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201.00
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300.00
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Correct
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91.57
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192.95
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284.52
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32.67
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134.67
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167.34
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% Correct
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92.49
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95.99
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94.84
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33.00
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67.00
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55.78
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% Incorrect
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7.51
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4.01
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5.16
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67.00
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33.00
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44.22
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Total Gain*
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59.49
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28.99
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39.06
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Percent Gain**
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88.79
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87.86
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88.33
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Dependent Variable: CAMS
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Method: ML - Binary Probit (Quadratic hill climbing)
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Date:09/31/12 Time: 23:11
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Sample (adjusted): 1 300
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Included observations: 300 after adjustments
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Andrews and Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit Tests
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Grouping based upon predicted risk (randomize ties)
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Quantile of Risk
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Dep=0
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Dep=1
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Total
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H-L
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Low
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High
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Actual
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Expect
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Actual
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Expect
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Obs
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Value
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1
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4.E-08
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5.E-06
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30
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29.9999
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0
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0.00012
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30
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0.00012
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2
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5.E-06
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0.0003
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30
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29.9954
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0
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0.00458
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30
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0.00459
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3
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0.0003
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0.1190
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29
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28.0066
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1
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1.99340
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30
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0.53029
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4
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0.1621
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0.9646
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9
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10.9474
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21
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19.0526
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30
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0.54548
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5
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0.9646
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0.9972
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1
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0.61447
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29
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29.3855
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30
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0.24695
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6
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0.9972
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0.9999
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0
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0.05198
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30
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29.9480
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30
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0.05207
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7
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0.9999
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1.0000
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0
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0.00121
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30
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29.9988
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30
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0.00121
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8
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1.0000
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1.0000
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0
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0.00012
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30
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29.9999
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30
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0.00012
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9
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1.0000
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1.0000
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0
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2.0E-06
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30
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30.0000
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30
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2.0E-06
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10
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1.0000
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1.0000
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0
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9.0E-09
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30
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30.0000
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30
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9.0E-09
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Total
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99
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99.6171
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201
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200.383
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300
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1.38082
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H-L Statistic:
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1.3808
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Prob. Chi-Sq(8)
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0.9945
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Andrews Statistic:
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130.5843
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Prob. Chi-Sq(10)
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0.0000
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Dependent Variable: CAMS
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Method: ML - Binary Probit (Newton-Raphson)
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Date: 07/31/12 Time: 23:22
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Sample (adjusted): 1 300
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Included observations: 300 after adjustments
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Convergence achieved after 7 iterations
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QML (Huber/White) standard errors & covariance
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Variable
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Coefficient
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Std. Error
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z-Statistic
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Prob.
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C
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-2.910583
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0.753115
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-3.864727
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0.0001
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ETAMCM
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3.151723
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0.610807
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5.159931
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0.0000
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NIVEINSC
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-2.118727
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0.422481
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-5.014958
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0.0000
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QUAL
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-2.284209
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0.651895
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-3.503953
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0.0005
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TAILLEM
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0.962357
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0.166252
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5.788546
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0.0000
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Mean dependent var
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0.670000
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S.D. dependent var
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0.470998
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S.E. of regression
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0.162111
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Akaike info criterion
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0.204122
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Sum squared resid
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7.752576
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Schwarz criterion
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0.265852
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Log likelihood
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-25.61829
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Hannan-Quinn criter.
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0.228826
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Restr. log likelihood
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-190.2536
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Avg. log likelihood
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-0.085394
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LR statistic (4 df)
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329.2706
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McFadden R-squared
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0.865347
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Probability(LR stat)
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0.000000
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Obs with Dep=0
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99
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Total obs
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300
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Obs with Dep=1
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201
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