1.2 Socio-Political Situation
The effects of the socio-economic collapse in the past decade
and the protracted 2008 elections that led to the formation of an Inclusive
Government in February 2009, after the signing of the Global Political
Agreement (GPA) between the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front
(ZANU-PF) and the two formations of Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in
September 2008 continue. ZANU-PF insists that the GPA will not be fully
implemented until the targeted western sanctions are removed. MDC- Tsvangirai
has called for fresh elections to break the GPA implementation deadlock and has
also turned to regional powers to influence President Mugabe but this strategy
appears to be increasingly ineffectual. The Call for fresh elections is
unlikely to be accepted by the two other principals to the GPA not only because
it contravenes the GPA but also because both political parties do not want an
election in which MDC-Tsvangirai would secure an easy victory. Mediation
efforts by the South African president has made little progress and it is not
clear what more SADC can do given the support President Mugabe commands from
both current SADC as well as African Union leadership.
The ongoing process of drafting a new Constitution, which as
per the GPA should happen as part of the transition before fresh general
elections are called is already behind schedule owing to funding problems,
administrative failures and political infighting.. Given the delay, a final
draft constitution is unlikely to be ready before February 2011. As a
stakeholders conference and referendum on the new constitution must be held
subsequently, fresh elections under the new constitution is unlikely before
2011. Even this timetable could change, given that it is to the benefit of
ZANU-PF and MDC-Mutambara sections of the inclusive government to maintain the
status quo as long as possible so as to weaken the political support of MDC-
Tsvangirai and benefit from possible political fallout in the process.
Economic policies continue to be driven by political
considerations, with the struggle for influence in the power-sharing government
overshadowing policy reforms. The ZANU-PF led indigenization legislation under
which all companies operating in the country are supposed to be majority
controlled by indigenous (Black) Zimbabweans is likely to deter potential
investors and slow economic progress. Similarly, while MDC- Tsvangirai has been
trying to improve relations with donor nations and convince them that the
transition process is working, ZANU-PF continues to take antagonistic approach
to Western states for example through improving diplomatic relations with
countries like Iran. Western governments have in turn tied the removal of
sanctions to political and economic progress, which has made opening of
improvement in funding for development projects increasingly difficult. The
friends of Zimbabwe consultative forum that was held in Oslo in June 2010 while
promising, continued engagement and support towards the reform process and
implementation tied any further substantial financial support to the inclusive
government to full political and economic reforms.
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