3.3.2. Graphiques de corrélation entre l'indicateur
ICRG du risque financier et les différentes variables
macroéconomiques utilisées dans notre étude.
Commentaires :
a) On constate une relation linéaire positive
entre le taux de croissance de PIE par tête et l'indicateur ICRG du
risque financier dans les 2 catégories de pays mais cette relation est
plus forte dans les pays à hauts revenus. Ce qui permet de conclure
à une relation linéaire négative entre le taux de
croissance de PIE par tête et le risque dans les 2 catégories de
pays.
b) On constate une relation linéaire positive
entre le PIE réel par tête et l'indicateur ICRG du risque
financier dans les 2 catégories de pays mais cette relation est plus
forte dans les pays à hauts revenus. Ce qui permet de conclure à
une relation linéaire négative entre le taux de croissance de PIE
par tête et le risque financier dans les 2 catégories de pays, la
relation étant négativement plus forte dans les pays à
moyens et faibles revenus.
c) Aucune relation linéaire entre l'inflation et
le risque financier dans les pays à moyens et faibles
revenus.
Relation linéairement négative entre
l'inflation et l'indicateur du risque financier dans les pays à hauts
revenus, d'où relation linéairement positive entre l'inflation et
le risque financier dans les pays à hauts revenus.
d) Il n'y a pas de relation linéaire entre le
taux d'intérêt et le risque financier aussi bien dans les pays
à hauts revenus que dans les pays à moyens et faibles
revenus.
e) Aucune relation linéaire entre le
crédit domestique au privé et le risque financier dans les pays
à hauts revenus.
Relation positive entre le crédit domestique
au secteur privé et l'indicateur ICRG du risque financier dans les pays
à moyens et faibles revenus, d'où on a une relation
linéaire négative entre le crédit domestique au secteur
privé et le risque financier dans les pays à moyens et faibles
revenus.
f) Relation linéairement positive entre le
taux de croissance du crédit et l'indicateur ICRG du risque financier
dans les pays à moyens et faibles revenus. On a donc une relation
linéairement négative entre le taux de croissance du
crédit et le risque financier dans les pays à moyens et faibles
revenus.
Aucune relation linéaire entre le taux de
croissance du crédit et le risque financier dans les pays à hauts
revenus.
g) On a une relation linéaire positive assez
forte entre la balance courante et l'indicateur ICRG du risque financier dans
les pays à moyens et faibles revenus, donc on a une relation
négative assez forte entre la balance courante et le risque financier
dans les pays à moyens et faibles revenus. Cette relation est aussi
négative entre les pays à hauts revenus et le risque financier
mais la relation est moins forte.
h) Relation linéaire négative entre la
masse monétaire rapportée aux réserves internationales et
l'indicateur ICRG du risque financier dans les pays à hauts revenus,
donc on a une relation linéaire positive entre la masse monétaire
rapportée aux réserves internationales et l'indicateur ICRG du
risque financier dans les pays à hauts revenus.
Aucune relation linéaire entre la masse
monétaire rapportée aux réserves internationales et
l'indicateur ICRG du risque financier dans les pays à moyens et faibles
revenus.
i) Les termes de l'échange ajustés n'ont
aucun effet linéaire sur le risque financier dans les 2
catégories de pays.
-20 -10 0 10 20
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|
0 10000 20000 30000
0 10 20 30 40 50
riskfin
infl
Fitted values
Taux de croissance du PIB - risque financier dans les PHR
PIB réel par tête - risque financier dans les PHR Inflation -
risque financier dans les PMFR
Liberia
Iraq
Lebanon
Sierra Leone
Iraq
Liberia Liberia
Sierra Leone Mozambique
Malwi
Papua New Guinea
Botswana
Sudan Iran. Islamic Rep I. slc
Liberia Jordan
Ht Domn l
Pr BlChna China
Angola Angola Angola
AlAnl
Angoa Togo
Papa Nw Gna
Agn Argtin
Venezuela. RB
Ethiopia n o o Rb Rulc
PP Angola
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Arentina Aetn Ati ge
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l Mli Ci Ch
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Chl C Btswt
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Myanmar
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Cong. Dem. .
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N N apa New p
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Guinea
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Congo. Dem. Rep.
Hai Jordn
Ethiopia
Idonesia Mlai Mongolia
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Mlaysia
Mexico
Mexic
Morocco
Morocc
Nigr
Nmibia
Nicragu
Ngei Mzbque Ppua N
New i Gie
Ppua w Guine
p Nw Ginea
u pa New New
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w Pp GNew Gna
Nw Gun Guna
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deration
ls u Rssian
Russin Russian
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Pa Nw Guinea
g y
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ggu rgy
s
Pe Za Ncargu
PrguyPraguay
s hand Tland
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Fderation Fdration
Federation Fedration
d Russian
Federation
Federation
Sie o
y il
eru
omami
b Ri mandn
on
Romnia
Paguay
Nig
Nicaragu
Peru Peru
PhiipinsPhilipines
Mal Zimbabw
Russian Federation
Romania us
Fderation
na ut g
ff ca
k nk nk a
Venezuela.
RB RB
SudanSudan
San
Sudn
Su Sdudan
Syian Arab Republic yi Ab epublic
u da
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riame b i Ty
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Tr
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bc epic
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Arab Syrin Ar
public
Tailand
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ublic
pubic
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epublic
Z Tand
d alnd
guay
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Sierra
Leone
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Republi
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Surinam
g abweZa
Tn T g Sya
Arab Republic
Syian Arab
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Syrian Arab Republic
ibwe
Suriname
go urky
Tgo
g gay ugy uuay
Urguay
Uganda
Z Zmba ambi Vneula. RB
Tukey
amb Trky
Turky
Vezuea. RB
m p. p n. en. men. Rep.
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Zam baw
Venezuela. RB
Venezuela. RB
ussia Federtion
Romana
Venezela. RB
Thailand
Uruguay
Venzuela.
Venezuela. RB RB
Zambia
Suriname Panama Russian
Feeration
Lithuani
Mada
Liberia Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone Togo Gabon
Angola
Liberia
Guinea-Bissau
Lebanon
Liberia
0 10 20 30 40 50
riskfin
pibgrwth Fitted values
-50 0 50 100
Iraq
Lebanon
Liberia
Liberia
Iraq
-200 0 200 400 600 800
|
|
|
|
Israel Israel
|
Polnd
Israel PolndPolandPoandPolan Brune
HungayHHa
u ca Huga H H
Iceland
elndccln
PortaotglPg Oa el
Emirtes
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IIs I On Tidad
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l Kor. srael
Qaa bli C Kuti
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t
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|
United Arab T Tdad id
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D
United Aab
Emirates KKwat a
Qatar Saudi Arbia
Kuwait Oman Saud Abia
Brunei Daru
|
10 20 30 40 50
riskfin
infl Fitted values
|
|
Gabon Lithuania
Gabon Lithuania
Gabon
Gabon Gabon Lithuania Libya
LibyaLibya LibyaLibya
Lithuai
Gabon nGabon abon Gabon
Gabon Lithuania Russian Federa
Russian Fed
Gabon Gabon n Russian
Federatio GabonGabonGabnGbon
Gabon Gabon
Argenti Argt
Chile Mico exic Mexic Russian Fe
Lithua
Gabon Chile alysia
Malaysia Malaysi Botswan
Argnina
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Romni ChilhileChileChleCheCil
Lebano Mexco Mexici
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Malaysa otsan
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Panama Panam Russin Feder
Venezuela. RB RB RB Bugria Bulgaria Botswana
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|
Agn gi Ann tn
Urug Veze. RB Vnzuel. RB
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Mexico MexicMeico Meico M
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Iran. Iran.
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. . . . .
|
|
|
-10000 0 10000 20000 30000
eration tion a deration a on ation ep. Rep.
Rep.
ep.ep. Rep. ic
a
lic
0 10 20 30 40 50
riskfin
pib Fitted values
Taux de croissance du PIB - risque financier dans les
PMFR PIB réel par tête - risque financier dans les PMFR Inflation
- risque financier dans les PHR
-100 0 100 200 300 400
|
|
|
Israel
Israel
Kuwait
Oman Kuwait Trinidad a
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|
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HungayHgGG y Ic Icy
y
pblc
II nite ra
Emrts
Ntln h
Triiad an ob Bu
R
h a a Bi Bl
Ire Ire rn
United United United rab Arab Arab
Emirates Emiraes Emirates
SpapSpai o in p
R Spi p p p p
gSoSpgpo
KuwaitKuwai lta
Nehds M M hrl
Oman Kit u Kit
Trinidad an
Tobgo Nwy r
Norwy yNrway
HgyHugy Hg H C g.
Pln O m g un
a
OmOma Buni
Tnidad and
Norway Da C R
Trinidad and T
man Omn
Brnei Bru
Iceland Kuat KuaitKui
it uit
Oman Unted Arab
Emirte Slovak Republic
Qatar Oman
New New Zelnd Zealan
Brunei
|
10 20 30 40 50
riskfin
txint
Fitted values
-200 0 200 400 600 800
|
Nicaragua
|
|
|
Peru Uruguay
Bulgaria
Rusian Rusn Fderation Federation
Per Iraq
Congo. Rep. Ecadr Ecor
Monga
Brazl
BraziBai Brazil
Brazil Brazil Bl
Cong. Re
Ecuador Ecuadoru
EcadEuadoEcdrEcuador
Ar Ecuador Ecudor A Angola
Libya
Gbon
oo Re
Malawi
BrlBrzilBralBrazi
C Cgo Cno D Gabon Uruguay
BB B i i olivi li
oa ivi
Bolivi Ecudor Bzil
Pe en Re
c
Urugu U Urugay
Uruguy
Mlii li M Mi
lia
Ini dr
R Dn b l Gn
am Ni
R dsca Pa a
Srme b T Th Th
P tm l
Liberia Uugy uguy Uguy Ugy
euea RB
Ne Nir i b
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Sr Se L Leon Sia e Vl RB
Lebanon a B s k F C
M Ct
N Lb L i
Ed E G b Gh h h m tsw
C C C R R
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Lber D Rpbc li u
Si L Nig
b Li Lib ia donsi Btswn
Srin Ab
epub Svdr ay y
r PPu ots
l E Sl h t n Idoi
At i M ew
G G
neua RB
Pgy a
Fetion
Ni Islm
la RB
B
|
Msy
AllAg era
gCile n.
C Ch hhlhlC CCh C h h
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n S i k k n Lk
C C
y y Mxcoxco
xo i xco x x
iag p u p w Gi
u S na S f Ac i
E Ept A p p Ecy y p p p Ni i
mb
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Venezuea
B RB
Venezula. RB
Vnla. B
y M y M y ly sMy
RB NgiNge
M p Bw
Lby
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tam Vitm
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q do IdosId r
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r lleriAgi
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B RB
uml t l
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Lebnon Lno u
nul.
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puc Syi pbyri
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ulic
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Taai il h Td
nzul.
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enzuela. RB Veu
RB GhGhna
tnamVenam
eme m Rep Rep
b dsc gc Mli
LbyaLbyaLiyLbyLbya
Zmbi ga Malwwi
Cog o . Re Gmb.
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uesu
Jc
Gutl u
Unda Uganda
ne. R
Indonesi Iraq m JicIaq
rd J
Et EpEthpiahiiEthiop
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yMyMyanmr
Phpi Rssian
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tho b
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nni omania omania
Feder
w Suriame
ganda
Venezuela
RBnezuela. RB
Agol Gabon
Myanma Lbon Libya
Ge-Bissu
an
Zbi Zambia
Peru Peru Peru
Peru GynGuyan
Zambia Zmbia
Zamia
Dmican pulic
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Sra Lon
Nicragu
ZmbaZmbia Zimbabwe Venezuela.
RB
Bolivia Ginea-sGuieBissu Suriname
Ugad
UgandaUgandUganda Suriname
Venezuela. RB
Sierra Leone Bulgaria
Guyna
Zimbabwe
Angola Angola Suriname
Bulgaria
AnolaAngola Suriname
Liberia
Bolivia Bolivia Nicaragua Nicaragua
Nicaragua
|
0 10 20 30 40 50
riskfin
txint Fitted values
0 50000 100000 150000
10 20 30 40 50
riskfin
PolaPolanP
Poland Polad Kuwait
United United
United
Unite
Un S A S
crdipvé Fitted values
PortugalPortugalPortugalPortug Portugal orua
Portugal
Spain SpainSpain Spain
Spin pain pain Spain
Spain
Portugal
orua
Portugal
Portugal Portugal Portugal
Lxm
Lux
Bl
Bl
Bl A B i i eg
B gim Bl Be A i L B i
ItalyItalyItaly Italy
Italy Italy Italy
ItalyItaly Italy
Italy
Italy Italy Italy
Taux d'intérêt - risque financier dans les
PHR Taux d'intérêt - risque financier dans les PMFR Crédit
domestique - risque financier dans les PHR
Guyana
Sri Lanka
Zambia
Nicaragua
Malaysia
Costa Rica
Liberia Morocco
Sudan Guinea-Bissau Suriname South Africa
Sierr Leone Ghana
Gune-Bssau
ZimbbSuriame
Ethipi n Aleria
Guine
Ziabwe
Gue-Bssu Sdn Gmba TVeneul. RB
GineBissau
Guia-Bissa
Ghan Ag l B Vezuela.
San
lvd S ad Uruguay n
ii i G Guyan
na Ta Vin Rp s
Sa Sra L Lone Gbo
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ini Z T oe e Le
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m uis Vel.
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g g ruy ul. RB
e s
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Gb
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Sierra Leone
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Sri Lank Indonesia
Guinea-Bissau
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Turkey Algeria Tanzn
Liberia Liberia Argentina Angoa Brazil Angola Nigeria
Congo Re.
Malawi Angola
Congo Dem. Rep.
Congo Dem. Rep.
Mongolia li Mongoli
Mongolia
Bulgaia Libya
Libeia Cog De Re Namibia Cgo
Congo Rep. Rep
Bolivia An Ri
Federtio
Angla Angola
Lib Lebn
Anti
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Nicaragua
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Philipns Congo Dm Rep
Burkina Faso
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M M Rssi Feertion
Brazil zbque
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Malaysia
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China
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Congo Rep.
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Cameroon Co. Rep. Praguy
Ja c
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Ma s Kya khstn
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Libera ebanon
Lberia
Liberi Pu bya by ibb
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Morocco
Nicragua
Ne i ga pps pnes
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Rani aa
Nger Nicaragua
Myanmar
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Liberia Bulgara Nicaragua
Zmba Gueml Indones
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Zambia Hdas
Vetnam Zimbawe Hit
Tukey Sri Lk
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Gmbi. T Russin Fedetin
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Urguy Ugad Egyt. Arab Rp.
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Congo. Dem. Rep.
Brazil Congo. De. Rep.
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Coob
LithuBulgaria
Romnia
Jamaica
Kazakhst
Brazil
Pan
Mngolia
Colombi
Chile
Philippines
Kenya
Paraguay
Myanma
Bangladeh
Nigeri
Nmibia
Iraq
Malaysia
Bolivia Botswana
Algeria ea lic
crdigrwth Fitted values
-2000 -1000 0 1000 2000
0 10 20 30 40 50
riskfin
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BArgntiB BAg lh
Av A A At
Al l Al A A
razl l
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Islamic
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Fedtion Algria
Fedration
Federation
crdipvé Fitted values
-2 0 2 4 6 8
0 10 20 30 40 50
riskfin
n
0 500 1000 1500
10 20 30 40 50
riskfin
crdigrwth Fitted values
PolaPolandPolnd
Poland United
United United United Unite Arb Saudi
Saudi Arab Arb
Saudi Aab QatQt Unite
Saud Arabi N Emits Arab
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Italy
Crédit domestique au privé - risque
financier dans les PMFR Taux de croissance du crédit - risque financier
dans les PMFR Taux de croissance du crédit - risque financier dans les
PHR
-300 -200 -100 0 100
10 20 30 40 50
riskfin
Kuwait Kwait Ku
Kuwait
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Triid r Ta rind
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Tnd Tad g o
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Tiidad Trind
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Tobago Kingdom Cyprus
Iceland Saudi Arabi
Iceland Oman
Kuwait
balce Fitted values
i
-50 0 50
0 10 20 30 40 50
riskfin
Angola
i LibyaLibya Botswana Iraq
Nigeria Libya
Sierra Leone Iraq Nigeria
Gabon Angola
Congo. Rep. Nigeria
Suriname Venezuel. RB
Gabon Botswan
Yemen. Rep
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li Mys
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Mongolia
Mongolia
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balce Fitted values
Guinea Bissau
Suriname
Libe
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Congo. Rep.
Nicaragua
Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe
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Zimbabwe
Zimbawe Zimbabwe
Mozaique
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Zimbawe ibae
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0 10 20 30 40 50
riskfin
m2rserv Fitted values
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
ationoneration ion
Balance courante - risque financier dans les PHR Balance
courante - risque financier dans les PMFR M2/réserves - risque financier
dans
-1.00e+14 -5.00e+13 0 5.00e+13 1.00e+14
0 10 20 30 40 50
riskfin
Iran. Islamic Rep. Iran Irn.
Iran Islamic Rep.
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Iran. Islamic Rep.
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tech
Indonesia
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Fitted values
Idsi
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Islamic RepIran. Islamic
Rep.
Colombia
Indonesia Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia
Indonesia Indoesia
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Iran. Iran. Islamic Ilamic
Rep. Rep.
i Vietnam
Indonesia
Indonesia
Iran. Islamic Rep.
Iran. Islamic Rep. Iran. Islamic Rep.
Iran. Islamic Rep.
Iran. Islamic Rep.
les PMFR
-50 0 50 100 150 200
10 20 30 40 50
riskfin
Poland Poland
Poland
PolandPoland
Poland
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Kuwait
United United Unied Uited Unite Arb rb A
Saudi Saud
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N rae Tr d r P H Q
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Australia
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-5.00e,13 0 5.00e+13
|
|
|
Korea. Rep.
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Iceland
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Japan
Korea. Rep.
Japan
Japan
Korea. Rep.
Korea. Rep.
|
10 20 30 40 50
riskfin
tech Fitted values
.
.
.
M2/réserves - risque financier dansles PHR Termes
de l'échange ajustés - risque financier dans les PHR Termes de
l'échange ajustés - risque financier dans les PMFR
|