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Etude des conséquences immédiates et à  terme des phénomènes associés à  un événement El Nino


par Florent Demoraes
Université de Savoie - DEA Interface Nature / Sociétés 1999
  

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Bitcoin is a swarm of cyber hornets serving the goddess of wisdom, feeding on the fire of truth, exponentially growing ever smarter, faster, and stronger behind a wall of encrypted energy

Abstract

The exceptionally oceanic warm current, known as El Niño, which abnormally extends southward along

South American coasts is a regional repercussion of a much wider phenomenon called El Niño Southern

Oscillation (ENSO). It manifests itself every 3 to 7 years. There has been a tendency for this length of time to

become shorter since 1970. ENSO is a system of complex interrelations gathering the dynamic of the Pacific

Ocean hydrosphere with aerological dynamic symbolised by the Southern Oscillation. This SO corresponds to a

variation of the pressures' differential between the East and West of the Pacific area, whose appearance is due to

a change of conditions of the general atmospheric circulation impulsed by the Arctic's drop in temperature.

Those recurrent aperiodic fluctuations of the general circulation together with a faster meridian transfer of

energy predetermine the arrival of an ENSO period. They are in parallel with the origin of many hydrometeorological

and environmental anomalies, which form an interconnected chain of hazards. This succession of

climatic incidences and induced effects will also provoke a multitude of consequences over societies, either

immediately or in the long run. Far from being systematically harmful, on the contrary, certain effects can be

considered as good opportunities. However, in many cases, anthropogenic actions over the environment

contribute to an increase of dangerous situations as well as to vulnerability of human communities. Furthermore,

numerous factors of vulnerability are also to be searched in the foundations of societies themselves (such as

institutional and political factors). The purpose of this French Geography DEA thesis centred on Andean

countries and more precisely, on Ecuador -deeply affected by El Niño- is to establish a theme work programme

to be studied thoroughly in a PhD thesis. A detailed analysis will lead to the discovery of improvements in order

to minimise danger due to physical hazards and to protect peoples within the frame of a concerted planning of

the territory as well as a lasting development of societies.

Key words: El Niño, ENSO, Southern Oscillation, anomalies, physical hazard, immediate consequences, long

term consequences, societal impacts, anthropogenic actions, vulnerability, Andean countries, Ecuador.

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REMERCIEMENTS

Je tiens à adresser mes sincères remerciements plus particulièrement aux personnes suivantes,

certaines pour m'avoir aidé dans l'élaboration de ce mémoire et d'autres pour m'avoir soutenu

lors de mon séjour en Equateur :

Robert D'Ercole, maître de conférences à l'Université de Savoie

Marcel Leroux, professeur à l'Université Jean Moulin, Lyon III

Patrick Pigeon, maître de conférences à l'Université de Savoie

Jean François Dumont, géologue de l'IRD, en poste à Guayaquil et Sahlia, sa femme

Francis Kahn, représentant IRD à Quito

Robert Hoorelbeke, hydrologue de l'IRD à Quito

Jean Louis Perrin, hydrologue de l'IRD à Quito

Kevin Pedoja, CSN géologue à Guayaquil

Cristina Carrión, documentaliste de l'IRD de Quito

Claudine Misson, responsable de la base Em-Dat au CRED-UCL - Bruxelles

Balbino Fernandez et Céline Milani, mes irremplaçables traducteurs

et puis les locataires de la Casa Lortic, Axel, Guillaume, Picou, Séverine, Orane,

Vincent, Benoît, Marisa, Manue, sans oublier Mouic et Noémie

ma famille.

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