Annexes
Annexe1 : Démonstration de la convergence
conditionnelle
·
Considérons la production par tête y =
k 1 á et k = sk
1-á
+ n)k
· 1
á
k =
0 s
? ?
k* = n
?? ä ??
+
D'où y * =( á
+
n1
á
. De plus comme
·
= ( 1 - á ) k Alors à partir de :
k = sk 1 - á - (
ä+n)k on a :
·
1-á
·
y = (1 -á a
)( (5)[ y _
n+ 1 Ce qui équivaut
d log( yt )
= â(log y - log y
) Avec â la vitesse de convergence
dt
|
d log( y t )
dt + â logy t =
âlogy
|
*
|
En multipliant les deux côtés par exp(ât
) puis en
|
intégrant, on a : ? e â t [d
log yt + â log
yt- ?I dt = ? eât
[ â logy*
dt ? ]dt
.
Or, d r ?[em log y
t ] = em [d log yt +â
log yt? ,dt
dt
dt J
donc ? e â t [d log
dt yt + â log yt ?
,dt = log y*e ât +
a1
?
J
Ainsi, on a : log y t e â t +
a0 = logy * + a1 log y t
= logy* + aeât Avec a
= a0 +a1. On en déduit :
log y 0 - log y* = a log
y t = (1 - CM) log y * +
CM log y0
Soit en taux de croissance :
0 )= 1
[ ] [ ] 0
- - â t *
1 e y
log - -
1 e - â t log y
T
(log yt- logy
1
T
|
1
T
|
log
|
yt
y0
|
= a - b log y
|
+ å0
0
|
-
Ainsi, pour un échantillon de pays on a : T v
1
.
log y iT = a - b log yit
+åit - it
Il y a convergence conditionnelle si b - 0
Annexe2 : Base donnée d'estimation de la relation entre la
sigma convergence budgétaire et les différentiels des taux de
change et d'inflation dans l'UEMOA
obs VCHG VINF VDEP VDEPD VDEPF
|
1979
|
6.30652000000000
|
1.76798100000000
|
0.380239
|
0.380239
|
0
|
|
1980
|
6.68272095746054
|
1.84006173661743
|
0.470554
|
0.470554
|
0
|
|
1981
|
7.0589218919782
|
1.91214312035072
|
0.560869
|
0.560869
|
0
|
|
1982
|
7.09047240145349
|
1.48095865056376
|
0.626390
|
0.62639
|
0
|
|
1983
|
6.65207644272843
|
1.60104942726473
|
0.656680
|
0.65668
|
0
|
|
1984
|
6.60545866925427
|
1.95974444099417
|
0.654222
|
0.654222
|
0
|
|
1985
|
6.64318348748687
|
2.48223249408537
|
0.644953
|
0.644953
|
0
|
|
1986
|
6.36757475207371
|
1.51061133735226
|
0.599834
|
0.599834
|
0
|
|
1987
|
5.70311728380156
|
2.62389292909549
|
0.546101
|
0.546101
|
0
|
|
1988
|
5.44507744946715
|
1.95337649213032
|
0.471917
|
0.471917
|
0
|
|
1989
|
4.87418291111974
|
2.01749871547614
|
0.471917
|
0.471917
|
0
|
|
1990
|
5.00472172284043
|
1.17830478117732
|
0.347787
|
0.347787
|
0
|
|
1991
|
3.95817627560208
|
1.71567652245421
|
0.452776
|
0.452776
|
0
|
|
1992
|
3.90383260897248
|
1.96049808299301
|
0.418392
|
0.418392
|
0
|
|
1993
|
3.83594510718641
|
1.49603828061045
|
0.268920
|
0.268920
|
0
|
|
1994
|
2.03784321411452
|
1.58801486897249
|
0.313183
|
0.313183
|
0
|
|
1995
|
2.30610700000000
|
1.44612148855161
|
0.209544
|
0.209544
|
0
|
|
1996
|
1.95354600000000
|
1.55988583808481
|
0.373375
|
0.373375
|
0
|
|
1997
|
1.60808299483594
|
1.61720764969846
|
0.307941
|
0.307941
|
0
|
|
1998
|
2.32813967803435
|
0.564366201120543
|
0.163514
|
0.163514
|
0
|
|
1999
|
2.38266984580549
|
0.434521326725246
|
0.265115
|
0.265115
|
0
|
|
2000
|
3.61297337837804
|
0.602594814388694
|
0.909067
|
0
|
0.909067
|
|
2001
|
3.4118427615281
|
0.418194787775423
|
0.411254
|
0
|
0.411254
|
|
2002
|
3.23931782677432
|
0.223354823630634
|
0.262549
|
0
|
0.262549
|
|
2003
|
3.25274159305522
|
0.657447979597789
|
0.323414
|
0
|
0.323414
|
|
2004
|
3.28218656951147
|
0.397935498277570
|
0.434233
|
0
|
0.434233
|
|
2005
|
3.32352100000000
|
0.635526012607002
|
0.328035
|
0
|
0.328035
|
|
2006
|
3.36537244359147
|
0.654535000000000
|
0.318847
|
0
|
0.318847
|
|
2007
|
3.20049973901082
|
0.679377309541519
|
0.272073
|
0
|
0.272073
|
|
2008
|
3.20646400000000
|
0.688888000000000
|
0.225299
|
0
|
0.225299
|
|
obs
|
VREC
|
VRECD
|
VRECF
|
VSB
|
VSBD
|
VSBF
|
|
1979
|
0.323370
|
0.323370
|
0
|
0.881215
|
0.881215
|
0
|
|
1980
|
0.344099
|
0.344099
|
0
|
0.969907
|
0.969907
|
0
|
|
1981
|
0.364828
|
0.364828
|
0
|
1.056925
|
1.056925
|
0
|
|
1982
|
0.405250
|
0.405250
|
0
|
1.169663
|
1.169663
|
0
|
|
1983
|
0.385515
|
0.385515
|
0
|
1.349065
|
1.349065
|
0
|
|
1984
|
0.367436
|
0.367436
|
0
|
1.369114
|
1.369114
|
0
|
|
1985
|
0.349612
|
0.349612
|
0
|
1.353799
|
1.353799
|
0
|
|
1986
|
0.331244
|
0.331244
|
0
|
1.202726
|
1.202726
|
0
|
|
1987
|
0.312039
|
0.312039
|
0
|
1.036739
|
1.036739
|
0
|
|
1988
|
0.292555
|
0.292555
|
0
|
0.792478
|
0.792478
|
0
|
|
1989
|
0.202351
|
0.202351
|
0
|
0.867514
|
0.867514
|
0
|
|
1990
|
0.112147
|
0.112147
|
0
|
0.942550
|
0.942550
|
0
|
|
1991
|
0.559830
|
0.559830
|
0
|
1.578846
|
1.578846
|
0
|
|
1992
|
0.157597
|
0.157597
|
0
|
1.210611
|
1.210611
|
0
|
|
1993
|
0.216441
|
0.216441
|
0
|
3.113125
|
3.113125
|
0
|
|
1994
|
0.153231
|
0.153231
|
0
|
1.94517
|
1.945170
|
0
|
|
1995
|
0.164359
|
0.164359
|
0
|
1.217290
|
1.217290
|
0
|
|
1996
|
0.177997
|
0.177997
|
0
|
1.139499
|
1.139499
|
0
|
|
1997
|
0.116811
|
0.116811
|
0
|
0.479907
|
0.479907
|
0
|
|
1998
|
0.110390
|
0.110390
|
0
|
1.146518
|
1.146518
|
0
|
|
1999
|
0.104752
|
0.104752
|
0
|
0.786816
|
0.786816
|
0
|
|
2000
|
0.221731
|
0
|
0.221731
|
1.263218
|
0
|
1.263218
|
|
2001
|
0.081135
|
0
|
0.081135
|
0.125003
|
0
|
0.125003
|
|
2002
|
0.095350
|
0
|
0.095350
|
0.252451
|
0
|
0.252451
|
|
2003
|
0.075914
|
0
|
0.075914
|
0.545439
|
0
|
0.545439
|
|
2004
|
0.075690
|
0
|
0.075690
|
0.171659
|
0
|
0.171659
|
|
2005
|
0.079441
|
0
|
0.079441
|
0.724178
|
0
|
0.724178
|
|
2006
|
0.312083
|
0
|
0.312083
|
0.745658
|
0
|
0.745658
|
|
2007
|
0.260654
|
0
|
0.260654
|
0.681363
|
0
|
0.681363
|
|
2008
|
0.209225
|
0
|
0.209225
|
0.617068
|
0
|
0.617068
|
T3
Annexe3 : Résumé des valeurs de la statistique de
carré et Clomp
-Dépenses publiques
|
Année terminale
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1998
|
2000
|
2002
|
2004
|
2007
|
|
Année de base
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1989
|
2,75
|
na
|
1,37
|
0,19
|
1,16
|
|
1998
|
|
na
|
-0,9868
|
na
|
na
|
|
2000
|
|
|
3,65
|
1,79
|
3,4881
|
|
2002
|
|
|
|
na
|
+0,089
|
|
2004
|
|
|
|
|
1,3667
|
Le sigle na signifie qu'on ne peut pas calculer la statistique T3
-Recettes publiques
|
Année terminale Année de base
|
1991
|
1999
|
2000
|
2002
|
2004
|
2007
|
|
1989
|
-3,17
|
+0,48
|
na
|
+0,72
|
+0,70
|
-0,30
|
|
1991
|
|
+0,84
|
+0,61
|
+1,32
|
+1,14
|
+0,88
|
|
1999
|
|
|
na
|
na
|
+0,3
|
-2,25
|
|
2000
|
|
|
|
na
|
+,66
|
-0,17
|
|
2002
|
|
|
|
|
+0,98
|
-2,56
|
|
2004
|
|
|
|
|
|
-3,077
|
Le sigle na signifie qu'on ne peut pas calculer la statistique T3
Soldes budgétaires
|
Année terminale Année de base
|
1993
|
2000
|
2002
|
2004
|
2007
|
|
1989
|
-1,2898
|
-0,45
|
0,45
|
+0,8
|
na
|
|
1993
|
|
+0,9206
|
+0,7836
|
+1,11690
|
+1,2000
|
|
2000
|
|
|
+1,63
|
+1,67
|
+0,66
|
|
2002
|
|
|
|
+1,11
|
na
|
|
2004
|
|
|
|
|
-3,9551
|
Le sigle na signifie qu'on ne peut pas calculer la statistique
T3
Annexe4 : RESULTATS DES ESTIMATIONS
Différentiel des taux de change et dispersion des
dépenses publiques Dependent Variable: VCHG
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/06/09 Time: 13:32
Sample (adjusted): 1981 2008
Included observations: 28 after adjustments
Convergence achieved after 8 iterations
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 2.985188 4.916206 0.607214 0.5494
T -0.024448 0.157186 -0.155538 0.8777
VDEP 1.553641 0.629148 2.469434 0.0210
AR (2) 0.838898 0.141012 5.949142 0.0000
R-squared 0.869760 Mean dependent var 4.130502
Adjusted R-squared 0.853480 S.D. dependent var 1.699260
S.E. of regression 0.650440 Akaike info criterion 2.109230
Sum squared resid 10.15375 Schwarz criterion 2.299545
Log likelihood -25.52921 F-statistic 53.42527
Durbin-Watson stat 1.146185 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Inverted AR Roots .92 -.92
Dependent Variable: VCHG
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/06/09 Time: 13:33
Sample (adjusted): 1981 2008
Included observations: 28 after adjustments Convergence achieved
after 10 iterations
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 3.258045 5.088331 0.640297 0.5283
T -0.034063 0.164624 -0.206914 0.8379
VDEPD 1.312372 1.540845 0.851722 0.4031
VDEPF 1.558220 0.642938 2.423595 0.0236
AR(2) 0.840412 0.147615 5.693281 0.0000
R-squared 0.869932 Mean dependent var 4.130502
Adjusted R-squared 0.847312 S.D. dependent var 1.699260
S.E. of regression 0.663992 Akaike info criterion 2.179339
Sum squared resid 10.14036 Schwarz criterion 2.417232
Log likelihood -25.51074 F-statistic 38.45771
Durbin-Watson stat 1.114859 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Inverted AR Roots .92 -.92
Différentiel des taux de change et dispersion des recettes
publiques
Dependent Variable: VCHG Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/10/09 Time: 22:47 Sample: 1979 2008
|
Included observations: 30
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
5.130290
|
0.763833 6.716507
|
0.0000
|
|
T
|
-0.123950
|
0.026606 -4.658665
|
0.0001
|
|
VREC
|
4.114957
|
1.876056 2.193409
|
0.0371
|
|
R-squared
|
0.710236
|
Mean dependent var
|
4.288110
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.688772
|
S.D. dependent var
|
1.746580
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.974379
|
Akaike info criterion
|
2.880607
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
25.63421
|
Schwarz criterion
|
3.020727
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-40.20911
|
F-statistic
|
33.08961
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.649125
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000000
|
|
Dependent Variable: VCHG
|
|
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 05/10/09 Time: 22:48 Sample: 1979 2008
|
Included observations: 30
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
7.139018
|
0.889622 8.024774
|
0.0000
|
|
T
|
-0.231438
|
0.039549 -5.851940
|
0.0000
|
|
VRECD
|
0.109289
|
2.005459 0.054496
|
0.9570
|
|
VRECF
|
10.30412
|
2.457813 4.192393
|
0.0003
|
|
R-squared
|
0.796522
|
Mean dependent var
|
4.288110
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.773044
|
S.D. dependent var
|
1.746580
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.832069
|
Akaike info criterion
|
2.593763
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
18.00080
|
Schwarz criterion
|
2.780589
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-34.90644
|
F-statistic
|
33.92606
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.807376
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000000
|
Différentiel des taux de change et dispersion des soldes
budgétaires
Dependent Variable: VCHG
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/10/09 Time: 22:49
Sample (adjusted): 1980 2008
Included observations: 29 after adjustments Convergence achieved
after 10 iterations
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
4.315855
|
5.495166 0.785391
|
0.4396
|
|
T
|
-0.060682
|
0.186053 -0.326152
|
0.7470
|
|
VSB
|
0.301657
|
0.177537 1.699125
|
0.1017
|
|
AR(1)
|
0.920357
|
0.092175 9.984894
|
0.0000
|
|
R-squared
|
0.920694
|
Mean dependent var
|
4.218509
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.911177
|
S.D. dependent var
|
1.734640
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.516977
|
Akaike info criterion
|
1.645804
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
6.681622
|
Schwarz criterion
|
1.834397
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-19.86416
|
F-statistic
|
96.74505
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.845256
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000000
|
|
Inverted AR Roots
|
.92
|
|
|
Dependent Variable: VCHG
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/10/09 Time: 22:50
Sample (adjusted): 1980 2008
Included observations: 29 after adjustments Convergence achieved
after 13 iterations
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
5.232444
|
4.202945 1.244947
|
0.2252
|
|
T
|
-0.097104
|
0.155523 -0.624367
|
0.5383
|
|
VSBD
|
0.191810
|
0.196953 0.973888
|
0.3398
|
|
VSBF
|
0.599277
|
0.293533 2.041603
|
0.0523
|
|
AR(1)
|
0.911943
|
0.098321 9.275153
|
0.0000
|
|
R-squared
|
0.925657
|
Mean dependent var
|
4.218509
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.913266
|
S.D. dependent var
|
1.734640
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.510861
|
Akaike info criterion
|
1.650148
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
6.263500
|
Schwarz criterion
|
1.885889
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-18.92715
|
F-statistic
|
74.70691
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.891167
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000000
|
|
Inverted AR Roots
|
.91
|
|
|
Différentiel des taux d'inflation et dispersion des
dépenses publiques
Dependent Variable : VINF
Method : Least Squares
Date : 03/05/09 Time: 17 :18
Sample (adjusted) : 1980 2008
Included observations : 29 after adjustments Convergence achieved
after 9 iterations
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
1.888327
|
0.566888 3.331037
|
0.0027
|
|
T
|
-0.067604
|
0.022099 -3.059088
|
0.0052
|
|
VDEP
|
0.840343
|
0.712777 1.178970
|
0.2495
|
|
AR (1)
|
0.453937
|
0.189405 2.396649
|
0.0243
|
|
R-squared
|
0.678001
|
Mean dependent var
|
1.209356
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.639361
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.826412
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.496287
|
Akaike info criterion
|
1.564116
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
6.157512
|
Schwarz criterion
|
1.752709
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-18.67968
|
F-statistic
|
17.54668
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.217109
|
Prob (F-statistic)
|
0.000002
|
|
Inverted AR Roots
|
.45
|
|
|
|
Dependent Variable : VINF
|
|
|
|
|
Method : Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date : 03/05/09 Time: 19 :59
Sample (adjusted) : 1980 2008
Included observations : 29 after adjustments Convergence achieved
after 10 iterations
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
0.513604
|
0.866949 0.592427
|
0.5591
|
|
T
|
0.001244
|
0.030649 0.040576
|
0.9680
|
|
VDEPD
|
2.480297
|
1.230194 2.016184
|
0.0551
|
|
VDEPF
|
0.150539
|
0.638487 0.235774
|
0.8156
|
|
AR (1)
|
0.207357
|
0.248397 0.834781
|
0.4121
|
|
R-squared
|
0.746310
|
Mean dependent var
|
1.306899
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.704028
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.677483
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.368573
|
Akaike info criterion
|
0.997229
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
3.260305
|
Schwarz criterion
|
1.232970
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-9.459827
|
F-statistic
|
17.65091
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.063716
|
Prob (F-statistic)
|
0.000001
|
|
Inverted AR Roots
|
.21
|
|
|
Différentiel des taux d'inflation et dispersion des
recettes publiques
Dependent Variable : VINF Method : Least Squares
Date : 03/05/09 Time: 18 :05 Sample : 1979 2008
Included observations : 30
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
1.944485
|
0.323414 6.012367
|
0.0000
|
|
T
|
-0.054393
|
0.011265 -4.828350
|
0.0000
|
|
VREC
|
0.717280
|
0.794340 0.902989
|
0.3745
|
|
R-squared
|
0.648037
|
Mean dependent var
|
1.322268
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.621966
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.671001
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.412562
|
Akaike info criterion
|
1.161777
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
4.595592
|
Schwarz criterion
|
1.301897
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-14.42666
|
F-statistic
|
24.85632
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.315758
|
Prob (F-statistic)
|
|
Dependent Variable: VINF
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/05/09 Time: 18:06
Sample (adjusted): 1980 2008
Included observations: 29 after adjustments Convergence achieved
after 13 iterations
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
2.008635
|
0.459850 4.368019
|
0.0002
|
|
T
|
-0.054734
|
0.022234 -2.461686
|
0.0214
|
|
VRECD
|
0.672185
|
0.906385 0.741611
|
0.4655
|
|
VRECF
|
0.176328
|
1.361414 0.129519
|
0.8980
|
|
AR (1)
|
0.306554
|
0.196773 1.557903
|
0.1323
|
|
R-squared
|
0.696103
|
Mean dependent var
|
1.306899
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.645454
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.677483
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.403399
|
Akaike info criterion
|
1.177804
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
3.905536
|
Schwarz criterion
|
1.413545
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-12.07816
|
F-statistic
|
13.74356
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.172705
|
Prob (F-statistic)
|
|
|
Inverted AR Roots
|
.31
|
|
|
Différentiel des taux d'inflation et dispersion des soldes
budgétaires
Dependent Variable: VINF Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/05/09 Time: 18:06 Sample: 1979 2008
|
Included observations: 30
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
1.941588
|
0.245053 7.923141
|
0.0000
|
|
T
|
-0.056188
|
0.009249 -6.075016
|
0.0000
|
|
VSB
|
0.190733
|
0.143503 1.329117
|
0.1949
|
|
R-squared
|
0.659675
|
Mean dependent var
|
1.322268
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.634466
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.671001
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.405684
|
Akaike info criterion
|
1.128153
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
4.443640
|
Schwarz criterion
|
1.268273
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-13.92230
|
F-statistic
|
26.16794
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.501364
|
Prob (F-statistic)
|
0.000000
|
|
Dependent Variable: VINF
|
|
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 03/05/09 Time: 18:07
Sample (adjusted): 1980 2008
Included observations: 29 after adjustments Convergence achieved
after 11 iterations
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
2.259715
|
0.381349 5.925585
|
0.0000
|
|
T
|
-0.065724
|
0.017907 -3.670376
|
0.0012
|
|
VSBD
|
0.032766
|
0.172214 0.190265
|
0.8507
|
|
VSBF
|
0.106192
|
0.315479 0.336604
|
0.7393
|
|
AR (1)
|
0.333996
|
0.205488 1.625380
|
0.1171
|
|
R-squared
|
0.690919
|
Mean dependent var
|
1.306899
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.639405
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.677483
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.406825
|
Akaike info criterion
|
1.194721
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
3.972167
|
Schwarz criterion
|
1.430461
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-12.32345
|
F-statistic
|
13.41237
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.191989
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000007
|
|
Inverted AR Roots
|
.33
|
|
|
Résultats d'estimation : Test de rupture dans la
variance en coupe transversale des Dépenses publiques
Dependent Variable: D(VDEP)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/06/02 Time: 17:18
Sample (adjusted): 1991 2007
Included observations: 17 after adjustments
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
0.941557
|
0.134018 7.025611
|
0.0000
|
|
VDEP(-1)
|
-1.937369
|
0.211320 -9.167932
|
0.0000
|
|
DU98
|
0.666745
|
0.105975 6.291525
|
0.0001
|
|
TB98
|
-0.584135
|
0.122488 -4.768918
|
0.0008
|
|
DT98
|
-0.019896
|
0.018928 -1.051138
|
0.3179
|
|
TREND
|
-0.046476
|
0.013723 -3.386673
|
0.0069
|
|
D(VDEP(-1))
|
0.516872
|
0.135146 3.824553
|
0.0033
|
|
R-squared
|
0.912179
|
Mean dependent var
|
-0.004454
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.859486
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.226847
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.085034
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-1.798624
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.072308
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-1.455536
|
|
Log likelihood
|
22.28830
|
F-statistic
|
17.31122
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.913701
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000094
|
Dependent Variable: D(VDEP)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/06/02 Time: 17:23
Sample (adjusted): 1991 2007
Included observations: 17 after adjustments
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
0.402817
|
0.417194 0.965540
|
0.3570
|
|
VDEP(-1)
|
-1.277794
|
0.819415 -1.559399
|
0.1500
|
|
DU00
|
0.136561
|
0.347106 0.393429
|
0.7023
|
|
TB00
|
-0.237677
|
0.522206 -0.455141
|
0.6587
|
|
DT00
|
-0.046602
|
0.055149 -0.845014
|
0.4179
|
|
TREND
|
0.008232
|
0.026352 0.312387
|
0.7612
|
|
D(VDEP(-1))
|
0.468469
|
0.406204 1.153285
|
0.2756
|
|
R-squared
|
0.579220
|
Mean dependent var
|
-0.004454
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.326752
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.226847
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.186132
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-0.231820
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.346451
|
Schwarz criterion
|
0.111268
|
Log likelihood 8.970472 F-statistic 2.294232
Durbin-Watson stat 1.910682 Prob(F-statistic) 0.117776
Dependent Variable: D(VDEP)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/06/02 Time: 17:24
Sample (adjusted): 1991 2007
Included observations: 17 after adjustments
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
0.431592
|
0.189856 2.273265
|
0.0463
|
|
VDEP(-1)
|
-1.386813
|
0.417863 -3.318817
|
0.0078
|
|
DU02
|
0.046428
|
0.327692 0.141681
|
0.8901
|
|
TB02
|
-0.085764
|
0.300769 -0.285150
|
0.7813
|
|
DT02
|
-0.047519
|
0.085604 -0.555107
|
0.5910
|
|
TREND
|
0.008986
|
0.016108 0.557872
|
0.5892
|
|
D(VDEP(-1))
|
0.366859
|
0.290879 1.261208
|
0.2359
|
|
R-squared
|
0.576052
|
Mean dependent var
|
-0.004454
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.321683
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.226847
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.186831
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-0.224319
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.349060
|
Schwarz criterion
|
0.118769
|
|
Log likelihood
|
8.906708
|
F-statistic
|
2.264630
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.917498
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.121308
|
Recettes publiques
Dependent Variable: D(VREC)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/06/02 Time: 17:26
Sample (adjusted): 1992 2007
Included observations: 16 after adjustments
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
0.839479
|
0.175212 4.791217
|
0.0010
|
|
VREC(-1)
|
-1.992052
|
0.423490 -4.703893
|
0.0011
|
|
DU00
|
-0.000336
|
0.112113 -0.003000
|
0.9977
|
|
TB00
|
0.144468
|
0.116731 1.237614
|
0.2472
|
|
DT00
|
0.067782
|
0.022544 3.006628
|
0.0148
|
|
TREND
|
-0.055686
|
0.013462 -4.136437
|
0.0025
|
|
D(VREC(-1))
|
0.323803
|
0.243821 1.328034
|
0.2169
|
|
R-squared
|
0.865137
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.012496
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.775228
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.175017
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.082976
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-1.840899
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.061965
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-1.502891
|
|
Log likelihood
|
21.72719
|
F-statistic
|
9.622394
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.389857
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.001720
|
Dependent Variable: D(VREC)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/06/02 Time: 17:28
Sample (adjusted): 1992 2007
Included observations: 16 after adjustments
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
0.932009
|
0.188806 4.936339
|
0.0008
|
|
VREC(-1)
|
-2.067311
|
0.425345 -4.860316
|
0.0009
|
|
DU98
|
-0.003471
|
0.099384 -0.034924
|
0.9729
|
|
TB98
|
0.007509
|
0.110101 0.068199
|
0.9471
|
|
DT98
|
0.066898
|
0.021482 3.114162
|
0.0124
|
|
TREND
|
-0.067832
|
0.017996 -3.769338
|
0.0044
|
|
D(VREC(-1))
|
0.355081
|
0.249049 1.425746
|
0.1877
|
|
R-squared
|
0.853193
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.012496
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.755322
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.175017
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.086572
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-1.756042
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.067453
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-1.418034
|
|
Log likelihood
|
21.04833
|
F-statistic
|
8.717513
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.472380
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.002465
|
Dependent Variable: D(VREC)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/06/02 Time: 17:30
Sample (adjusted): 1991 2007
Included observations: 17 after adjustments
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
VREC(-1)
|
-1.049496
|
0.210443 -4.987082
|
0.0003
|
|
DU91
|
0.058662
|
0.087589 0.669747
|
0.5157
|
|
TB91
|
0.387898
|
0.091302 4.248519
|
0.0011
|
|
DT91
|
-0.044062
|
0.030319 -1.453277
|
0.1718
|
|
TREND
|
0.040721
|
0.027944 1.457248
|
0.1707
|
|
R-squared
|
0.866697
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.006455
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.822262
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.171281
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.072210
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-2.178545
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.062572
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-1.933482
|
|
Log likelihood
|
23.51763
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.546663
|
Soldes budgétaires
Dependent Variable: D(VSB)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/06/02 Time: 17:44
Sample (adjusted): 1991 2007
Included observations: 17 after adjustments
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
-0.815734
|
1.302664 -0.626205
|
0.5452
|
|
VSB(-1)
|
-0.959317
|
0.343414 -2.793472
|
0.0190
|
|
DU93
|
-1.854616
|
0.530781 -3.494130
|
0.0058
|
|
DT93
|
-0.712972
|
0.338818 -2.104296
|
0.0616
|
|
TB93
|
1.646058
|
0.827399 1.989438
|
0.0747
|
|
TREND
|
0.692135
|
0.324230 2.134703
|
0.0586
|
|
D(VSB(-1))
|
-0.313810
|
0.247120 -1.269868
|
0.2329
|
|
R-squared
|
0.786010
|
Mean dependent var
|
-0.015364
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.657616
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.755768
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.442227
|
Akaike info criterion
|
1.498916
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
1.955651
|
Schwarz criterion
|
1.842004
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-5.740789
|
F-statistic
|
6.121851
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.051430
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.006370
|
| 
