ANNEXE 1
TABLEAU N°7: EVOLUTION DE LA MASSE
SALARIALE ET DE
L'IVESTISSEMENT PUBLIC PAR RAPPORT AUX RECETTES
FISCALES
|
Années
|
MS/RF
|
INVESPUB/RF
|
|
1990
|
91,66667
|
48,03030303
|
|
1991
|
79,02542
|
38,98305085
|
|
1992
|
68,65149
|
31,99649737
|
|
1993
|
57,55725
|
35,00763359
|
|
1994
|
50,3304
|
30,56167401
|
|
1995
|
43,82114
|
25,41463415
|
|
1996
|
40,81346
|
22,55259467
|
|
1997
|
39,04282
|
17,49370277
|
|
1998
|
35,37788
|
14,5618839
|
|
1999
|
33,24975
|
15,28585757
|
|
2000
|
31,0551
|
17,22768048
|
|
2001
|
31,98544
|
18,20460979
|
|
2002
|
31,89381
|
17,96814159
|
|
2003
|
32,84439
|
17,49362245
|
|
2004
|
37,98972
|
19,37700706
|
|
2005
|
39,01198
|
18,61377246
|
|
2006
|
35,62945
|
17,06782792
|
|
2007
|
32,48265
|
15,20483546
|
|
2008
|
35,61109
|
14,36157751
|
|
2009
|
45,14388
|
17,87969624
|
|
2010
|
45,38886
|
14,45141662
|
|
2011
|
47,36251
|
15,60044893
|
|
2012
|
46,77716
|
14,23070484
|
ANNEXE 2 :
TABLEAU N °8: EVOLUTION DE LA MASSE SALARIALE
DANS L'ESPACE UEMOA
|
Années
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
Moyenne
|
|
Bénin
|
39
|
35,6
|
32
|
35,6
|
45,1
|
45,4
|
47,4
|
46,8
|
40,8625
|
|
Burkina-Faso
|
42
|
44,1
|
46,4
|
44,7
|
46,2
|
43,5
|
40,5
|
37,5
|
43,1125
|
|
Cote d'Ivoire
|
45
|
42,1
|
43,6
|
43,8
|
41,5
|
41,5
|
48,2
|
42,2
|
43,4875
|
|
Guinnée-Bisseau
|
115,9
|
111
|
116,5
|
96,9
|
75,6
|
79,2
|
71,3
|
62
|
91,05
|
|
Mali
|
30,9
|
30,9
|
32,9
|
35,8
|
34,2
|
34
|
36,1
|
38,4
|
34,15
|
|
Niger
|
34,8
|
33,4
|
31
|
29,8
|
33,5
|
34,7
|
32,4
|
34,6
|
33,025
|
|
Sénégal
|
30
|
31
|
30,1
|
33,1
|
33,6
|
32,8
|
33,2
|
33,5
|
32,1625
|
|
Togo
|
30,4
|
33,1
|
32,8
|
32,7
|
41,2
|
33,5
|
35,9
|
36,7
|
34,5375
|
Analyse des effets de la masse salariale sur l'investissement
public au Bénin
2012-2013
61
Réalisé par Romaric DOSSA
ANNEXE 3 :
TABLEAU N°9: DONNEES DU MODELE
D'ESTIMATION
|
ANNEES
|
INVESPUB
|
MS
|
TCPIBr
|
APD
|
SERVDETP
|
ENCDETP
|
INVESPRV
|
|
1980
|
3,2817944
|
3,8
|
6,9
|
5,26
|
14,9
|
|
9,406055
|
|
1981
|
3,30929147
|
7,03
|
10,1
|
5,43
|
58,4
|
|
9,39753924
|
|
1982
|
3,61869313
|
7,4
|
2,9
|
5,8
|
58,6
|
|
9,4292804
|
|
1983
|
3,34476844
|
7,8
|
-4
|
7,28
|
35,8
|
|
9,47684391
|
|
1984
|
3,37167791
|
7,2
|
9,1
|
6,25
|
23,4
|
|
9,4153114
|
|
1985
|
3,35979324
|
7,89
|
8,2
|
6,59
|
8,5
|
|
9,31096363
|
|
1986
|
3,31341662
|
8,3
|
2,2
|
7,09
|
18,5
|
48,3432917
|
9,41517291
|
|
1987
|
3,34681868
|
9,6
|
-1,7
|
7,03
|
21,8
|
48,859875
|
9,45200441
|
|
1988
|
3,47949583
|
8,6
|
3,9
|
8,71
|
14,8
|
50,7189775
|
9,51310847
|
|
1989
|
3,95209581
|
7,4
|
-2,8
|
13,82
|
14,7
|
46,2874251
|
9,76047904
|
|
1990
|
3,56071964
|
6,2
|
3,7
|
14,11
|
7,8
|
45,446027
|
8,56446777
|
|
1991
|
3,28336902
|
6,1
|
4,2
|
12,55
|
10,1
|
50,3033547
|
9,29693076
|
|
1992
|
3,07873486
|
6
|
3
|
12,82
|
9,3
|
47,3418573
|
9,87550471
|
|
1993
|
3,55534855
|
5,4
|
5,8
|
24,76
|
10,8
|
49,899084
|
9,64136004
|
|
1994
|
3,13310042
|
5,2
|
2
|
14,39
|
10,5
|
70,8215936
|
10,1093204
|
|
1995
|
2,89012004
|
5
|
6
|
13,23
|
8,9
|
64,9215149
|
11,089566
|
|
1996
|
2,66600431
|
4,8
|
4,3
|
13,91
|
12
|
62,6924988
|
10,2417619
|
|
1997
|
2,09985648
|
4,7
|
5,7
|
9,84
|
11,9
|
56,522396
|
12,1006118
|
|
1998
|
1,83650925
|
4,5
|
4
|
8,72
|
14,8
|
53,2656725
|
12,5586854
|
|
1999
|
1,99034195
|
4,3
|
5,3
|
9,8
|
11,5
|
55,311929
|
12,6990342
|
|
2000
|
2,3993808
|
4,3
|
4,9
|
10,41
|
6,8
|
54,5248869
|
11,5920457
|
|
2001
|
2,45619781
|
4,3
|
6,2
|
10,36
|
6,3
|
53,6651929
|
11,4567982
|
|
2002
|
2,59994256
|
4,6
|
4,4
|
6,41
|
3,8
|
48,5308396
|
11,5590986
|
|
2003
|
2,65538089
|
5,2
|
3,9
|
7,65
|
3,6
|
40,5513906
|
12,0048368
|
|
2004
|
2,81775701
|
5,5
|
3,1
|
9,57
|
3,1
|
38,7757009
|
11,3084112
|
|
2005
|
2,70587723
|
5,7
|
2,9
|
7,5
|
8,9
|
40,15313
|
11,3498934
|
|
2006
|
2,62986749
|
5,5
|
3,8
|
7,45
|
9,5
|
21,2137225
|
11,5397122
|
|
2007
|
2,57031757
|
5,4
|
4,6
|
8,86
|
2,547
|
20,5814438
|
11,8257183
|
|
2008
|
2,49703138
|
6,1
|
5
|
7,81
|
2,22
|
24,206955
|
12,0203562
|
|
2009
|
2,87836882
|
7,3
|
2,7
|
12,37
|
2,69
|
26,7800862
|
10,8734804
|
|
2010
|
3,13417575
|
7,3
|
2,6
|
14,28
|
2,15
|
20,021976
|
10,10455698
|
|
2011
|
3,80182589
|
7,4
|
3,5
|
14,3
|
1,5
|
26
|
10,856544
|
|
2012
|
3,10254412
|
7,2
|
5,4
|
15,01
|
2,2
|
22,4
|
10,3577486
|
2012-2013
Réalisé par Romaric
DOSSA
Analyse des effets de la masse salariale sur
l'investissement public au Bénin
62
ANNEXE 4 : TEST DE STATIONNARITE EN NIVEAU
INVESPUB
Null Hypothesis: INVESPUB has a unit root Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.389764 0.5353
Test critical values: 1% level -2.641672
5% level -1.952066
10% level -1.610400
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
MS
Null Hypothesis: MS has a unit root Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.540263 0.4747
Test critical values: 1% level -2.641672
5% level -1.952066
10% level -1.610400
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
TCPIBr
Null Hypothesis: TCPIBr has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag
Length: 3 (Fixed)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.104532 0.2444
Test critical values: 1% level -3.679322
5% level -2.967767
10% level -2.622989
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
2012-2013
Réalisé par Romaric
DOSSA
Analyse des effets de la masse salariale sur
l'investissement public au Bénin
63
INVESPRV
Null Hypothesis: INVESPRV has a unit root Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic 0.187957 0.7340
Test critical values: 1% level -2.641672
5% level -1.952066
10% level -1.610400
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
APD
Null Hypothesis: APD has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag
Length: 1 (Fixed)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.034783 0.2712
Test critical values: 1% level -3.661661
5% level -2.960411
10% level -2.619160
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
SERVDETP
Null Hypothesis: SERVDETP has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.542103 0.0001
Test critical values: 1% level -3.661661
5% level -2.960411
10% level -2.619160
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
2012-2013
Réalisé par Romaric
DOSSA
Analyse des effets de la masse salariale sur
l'investissement public au Bénin
64
ENCDETP
Null Hypothesis: ENCDETP has a unit root Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.948021 0.2967
Test critical values: 1% level -2.660720
5% level -1.955020
10% level -1.609070
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
PREMIERE DIFFERENCE
INVESPUB
Null Hypothesis: D(INVESPUB) has a unit root Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.720700 0.0006
Test critical values: 1% level -2.644302
5% level -1.952473
10% level -1.610211
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
MS
Null Hypothesis: D(MS) has a unit root Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 3 (Fixed)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.151360 0.0325
Test critical values: 1% level -2.650145
5% level -1.953381
10% level -1.609798
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
2012-2013
Réalisé par Romaric
DOSSA
Analyse des effets de la masse salariale sur
l'investissement public au Bénin
65
TCPIBr
Null Hypothesis: D(TCPIBr) has a unit root Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 3 (Fixed)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.043269 0.0002
Test critical values: 1% level -2.650145
5% level -1.953381
10% level -1.609798
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
INVESPRV
Null Hypothesis: D(INVESPRV) has a unit root Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
t-Statistic
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.670474
Test critical values: 1% level -2.644302
5% level -1.952473
10% level -1.610211
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
APD
Null Hypothesis: D(APD) has a unit root Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.628873 0.0000
Test critical values: 1% level -2.644302
5% level -1.952473
10% level -1.610211
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
2012-2013
Réalisé par Romaric
DOSSA
Analyse des effets de la masse salariale sur
l'investissement public au Bénin
66
ENCDETP
Null Hypothesis: D(ENCDETP) has a unit root Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Fixed)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.827102 0.0005
Test critical values: 1% level -2.664853
5% level -1.955681
10% level -1.608793
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
