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Analyse des déterminants de la croissance économique au Burkina Faso. Quelles perspectives pour une croissance soutenue ?

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par Edouard KABORE
ENAM-Burkina Faso - Conseiller des Affaires Economiques 2011
  

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ANNEXE 7: TEST DE STABILITE DES COEFFICIENTS DU MODELE

 
 
 
 

6 4 2 0 -2 -4

 

800

400

0

-800 -100

150 100 50 0 -50

 

80

40

0

-80

 

20,000

10,000

0

-20,000

 
 

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 94

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

 

94

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

 
 

Recursive C(1) Estimates

#177; 2 S.E.

-400

Recursive C(2) Estimates

#177; 2 S.E.

 

Recursive C(3) Estimates

#177; 2 S.E.

-40

Recursive C(4) Estimates

#177; 2 S.E.

-10,000

Recursive C(5) Estimates

#177; 2 S.E.

 
 

60

80

120

 

30

10,000

 
 
 

40

20

 

40

 

80

40

 

20

10

 

5,000

0

 
 
 

0 -20 -40 -60

 

0

-40

-80

 

0 -40 -80 -120

 

0

-10

-20

 

-5,000

-10,000

-15,000

 
 
 
 

94

96 98 00 02 04 06 08

10 94

96 98 00 02 04 06 08

10 94

96 98 00 02 04 06 08

10 94

96 98 00 02 04 06 08

10 94

96 98 00 02 04 06 08

10

 
 

Recursive C(6) Estimates

#177; 2 S.E.

 

Recursive C(7) Estimates

#177; 2 S.E.

 

Recursive C(8) Estimates

#177; 2 S.E.

 

Recursive C(9) Estimates

#177; 2 S.E.

 

Recursive C(10) Estimates

#177; 2 S.E.

 
 

1

 

4

 

1,200

 

200

 

150

 
 
 

0

-1

-2

-3

 

2

0

-2

 

800

400

0

-800

-1,200

 

100 0 -100 -200

 

100 50 0 -50 -100 -150

 
 
 
 

94

96 98 00 02 04 06 08

10 94

96 98 00 02 04 06 08

10 94

96 98 00 02 04 06 08

10 94

96 98 00 02 04 06 08

10 94

96 98 00 02 04 06 08

10

 
 

Recursive C(11) Estimates

#177; 2 S.E.

 

Recursive C(12) Estimates

#177; 2 S.E.

-400

Recursive C(13) Estimates

#177; 2 S.E.

 

Recursive C(14) Estimates

#177; 2 S.E.

 

Recursive C(15) Estimates

#177; 2 S.E.

 
 
 
 

100

-4

120

 

80

 

60

 
 
 

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

-1,000

-2,000

 

50

-50

-100

 

80

40

-40

80

 

40 0 -40 -80

 

40 20 0 -20 -40

 
 
 

94 96

98 00 02 04 06 08

10 94 96

98 00 02 04 06 08 10 94 96

0

98 00 02 04 06 08 10 94 96

0

98 00 02 04 06 08

10 94 96

98 00 02 04 06 08

10

 
 

Recursive C(16) Estimates

#177; 2 S.E.

 

Recursive C(17) Estimates

#177; 2 S.E.

 

Recursive C(18) Estimates

#177; 2 S.E.

 

Recursive C(19) Estimates

#177; 2 S.E.

 

Recursive C(20) Estimates

#177; 2 S.E.

 
 

-120

 
 
 

xiv

ANNEXE 8: TESTS DE RACINE UNITAIRE

Null Hypothesis: D(LAPD) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -6.702715 0.0000

Test critical values: 1% level -3.605593

5% level -2.936942

10% level -2.606857

Null Hypothesis: D(LEMMICO2) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -7.316791 0.0000

Test critical values: 1% level -3.605593

5% level -2.936942

10% level -2.606857

Null Hypothesis: D(LCREDIPRIV) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.222887 0.0019

Test critical values: 1% level -3.605593

5% level -2.936942

10% level -2.606857

Null Hypothesis: D(LGCONS) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -7.404131 0.0000

Test critical values: 1% level -3.605593

5% level -2.936942

10% level -2.606857

Null Hypothesis: D(LPRIX) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -6.069383 0.0000

xv

Test critical values: 1% level -3.605593

5% level -2.936942

10% level -2.606857

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Null Hypothesis: D(TINV) has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.617920 0.0006

Test critical values: 1% level -3.610453

5% level -2.938987

10% level -2.607932

Null Hypothesis: D(LPACTIV) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 3 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.987380 0.0038

Test critical values: 1% level -3.621023

5% level -2.943427

10% level -2.610263

Null Hypothesis: D(LPIBRHBT) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -6.876313 0.0000

Test critical values: 1% level -3.605593

5% level -2.936942

10% level -2.606857

Null Hypothesis: D(LTCER) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -6.735458 0.0000

Test critical values: 1% level -3.605593

5% level -2.936942

10% level -2.606857

Null Hypothesis: D(LTERAGRI) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9)

xvi

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -7.540613 0.0000

Test critical values: 1% level -3.605593

5% level -2.936942

10% level -2.606857

Null Hypothesis: TPIB has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.655999 0.0000

Test critical values: 1% level -3.600987

5% level -2.935001

10% level -2.605836

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