BIBLIOGRAPHIR
Ouvrage
1. BOURBONNAIS, R., Econométrie, 9e
édition, duo, 2015, paris.
2. BIKAI, J. et KENKOUO G. Analyse et évaluation
de canaux de transmission de la politique monétaire dans la CEMAC : une
approche SVAR, 2015.
3. CLERG D., l'inflation, paris, syros, 1994.
4. STOCK J.H. et M.W. WATSON, Forecasting Inflaction,
Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 44, 1999.
5. M. Freedman, le recours aux indicateurs et à
l'indice de condition monétaire at Canada, banque du Canada,
1996.s
6. DIARISSO et SAMBA, les conditions monétaires
dans l'UEMOA : confection d'un indice communautaire, BCAO, note information et
statistique N°501
7. AGENOR P. R. (2008), «
ciblage d?inflation et définition d?objectifs monétaires : quels
critères de choix pour les pays en développement ? »,
Quatrième colloque BCEAO - Universités - centres de recherche :
politique monétaire et stabilité des prix dans l?UEMOA :
contraintes et défis, volume II - intervention orale,
août.
8. ALLEGRET J. et GOUX J. (2003),
« Trois essais sur les anticipations d?inflation »,
in Documents de travail - Working Papers n°03-01, GATE, Mai.
Note de cours
9. BOLITO, R., cours de la macroéconomique, FSEG,
UNIKIS, L1 économie, 20162017,
10. LUBANZA, N. cours d'informatique, FSEG, UNIKIS, L1
économie, 20162017, Mémoire et article
11. Caleb MUKADI « RDC : l'inflation n'est que
monétaire ? », article, 2010
12. LIOTO GANDI, l'analyse de quelques aspects de la
politique monétaire de la banque centrale du Congo et ses effets sur
l'économie nationale, FSEG, UPLG, 2010
13. Henry N. MUGANZA Les indicateurs avances de
l'inflation en RDC, article, 2014
14. NGANDU LISIMO, la politique de l'autorité face
à la dépréciation du CDF : enjeux et conséquences,
FSEG, UNIKIN, 2014
Webographie
Besoin de financement
http://www.fao.org/tiews/french/basedocs/DRCen,
STM. Consulté en Août 2018, 15h18,
IMPORTATION ET INFLATION EN RDC 1980 A2016
PIVA ASALOKO PRINCE
IMPORTATION ET INFLATION EN RDC 1980 A2016
PIVA ASALOKO PRINCE
nnexes
PIVA ASALOKO PRINCE
IMPORTATION ET INFLATION EN RDC 1980 A2016
Analyses de la stationnarité des
variables
|
Null Hypothesis: D(LINF) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: None
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic
|
- based on SIC,
|
maxlag=9)
|
|
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|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-6.846802
|
0.0000
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.632688
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1.950687
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1.611059
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: D(LIMP) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: None
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=9)
|
|
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|
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|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-4.893660
|
0.0000
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.632688
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1.950687
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1.611059
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: D(TCH) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: None
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=9)
|
|
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|
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|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-3.116378
|
0.0028
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.632688
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1.950687
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1.611059
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PIVA ASALOKO PRINCE
IMPORTATION ET INFLATION EN RDC 1980 A2016
|
Null Hypothesis: D(TC) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: None
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=9)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-5.622891
|
0.0000
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.632688
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1.950687
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1.611059
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: D(LMM) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=9)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-4.304575
|
0.0017
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-3.632900
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-2.948404
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-2.612874
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LMM,2)
|
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 08/05/19 Time: 22:42
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1982 2016
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 35 after adjustments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(LMM(-1))
|
-0.721380
|
0.167584
|
-4.304575
|
0.0001
|
|
C
|
0.686993
|
0.279786
|
2.455425
|
0.0195
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: DB has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 9 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=9)
IMPORTATION ET INFLATION EN RDC 1980 A2016
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-7.202242
|
0.0000
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-4.339330
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-3.587527
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-3.229230
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(DB)
|
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 08/05/19 Time: 22:44
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1990 2016
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 27
|
after adjustments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DB(-1)
|
-1.973067
|
0.273952
|
-7.202242
|
0.0000
|
|
D(DB(-1))
|
1.432773
|
0.243098
|
5.893806
|
0.0000
|
|
D(DB(-2))
|
1.091097
|
0.207194
|
5.266068
|
0.0001
|
|
D(DB(-3))
|
0.963881
|
0.192016
|
5.019807
|
0.0002
|
|
D(DB(-4))
|
0.466411
|
0.173752
|
2.684351
|
0.0170
|
|
D(DB(-5))
|
0.663322
|
0.158320
|
4.189760
|
0.0008
|
|
D(DB(-6))
|
0.347596
|
0.130985
|
2.653713
|
0.0181
|
|
D(DB(-7))
|
0.338270
|
0.120890
|
2.798154
|
0.0135
|
|
D(DB(-8))
|
0.199186
|
0.113300
|
1.758039
|
0.0991
|
|
D(DB(-9))
|
0.254166
|
0.100655
|
2.525112
|
0.0233
|
|
C
|
-18.38841
|
2.469483
|
-7.446258
|
0.0000
|
|
@TREND("1980")
|
0.566357
|
0.078976
|
7.171217
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Estimation du VECM
|
Vector Error Correction Estimates
|
|
|
|
|
|
Date: 08/05/19 Time: 22:50
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1982 2016
|
|
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 35 after adjustments
|
|
|
|
|
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cointegrating Eq:
|
CointEq1
|
CointEq2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINF(-1)
|
1.000000
|
0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
PIVA ASALOKO PRINCE
|
IMPORTATION ET INFLATION EN RDC 1980 A2016
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LIMP(-1)
|
0.000000
|
1.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LMM(-1)
|
0.318820
|
1.284899
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.10672)
|
(0.38209)
|
|
|
|
|
|
[ 2.98731]
|
[ 3.36278]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TCH(-1)
|
-0.003897
|
-0.021216
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.00554)
|
(0.01982)
|
|
|
|
|
|
[-0.70389]
|
[-1.07044]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TC(-1)
|
-0.283792
|
-2.629368
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.36508)
|
(1.30706)
|
|
|
|
|
|
[-0.77734]
|
[-2.01166]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DB(-1)
|
-2.185389
|
-7.330622
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.33504)
|
(1.19950)
|
|
|
|
|
|
[-6.52282]
|
[-6.11140]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Error Correction:
|
D(LINF)
|
D(LIMP)
|
D(LMM)
|
D(TCH)
|
D(TC)
|
D(DB)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CointEq1
|
-0.435236
|
-0.093057
|
-0.153170
|
-12.61859
|
0.277037
|
1.493157
|
|
(0.19453)
|
(0.05160)
|
(0.14986)
|
(10.5378)
|
(0.55417)
|
(0.65492)
|
|
[-2.23732]
|
[-1.80355]
|
[-1.02209]
|
[-1.19746]
|
[ 0.49991]
|
[ 2.27991]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CointEq2
|
0.119401
|
0.022104
|
0.072730
|
3.705481
|
-0.106624
|
-0.368716
|
|
(0.05181)
|
(0.01374)
|
(0.03991)
|
(2.80629)
|
(0.14758)
|
(0.17441)
|
|
[ 2.30477]
|
[ 1.60865]
|
[ 1.82240]
|
[ 1.32042]
|
[-0.72249]
|
[-2.11408]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(LINF(-1))
|
-0.034012
|
-0.007593
|
0.215557
|
3.528189
|
-0.507492
|
-0.537826
|
|
(0.16978)
|
(0.04503)
|
(0.13079)
|
(9.19706)
|
(0.48366)
|
(0.57160)
|
|
[-0.20032]
|
[-0.16861]
|
[ 1.64808]
|
[ 0.38362]
|
[-1.04927]
|
[-0.94092]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(LIMP(-1))
|
-0.911977
|
-0.047692
|
-1.014450
|
-18.27883
|
-0.656052
|
0.313726
|
|
(0.73558)
|
(0.19510)
|
(0.56665)
|
(39.8457)
|
(2.09544)
|
(2.47640)
|
|
[-1.23981]
|
[-0.24445]
|
[-1.79025]
|
[-0.45874]
|
[-0.31309]
|
[ 0.12669]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(LMM(-1))
|
-0.205367
|
0.087210
|
-0.584333
|
-7.364135
|
1.796277
|
-0.236775
|
|
(0.21516)
|
(0.05707)
|
(0.16575)
|
(11.6549)
|
(0.61292)
|
(0.72435)
|
|
[-0.95449]
|
[ 1.52821]
|
[-3.52546]
|
[-0.63185]
|
[ 2.93070]
|
[-0.32688]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(TCH(-1))
|
-0.006934
|
0.000861
|
-0.004662
|
0.329762
|
0.021207
|
0.008050
|
|
(0.00366)
|
(0.00097)
|
(0.00282)
|
(0.19849)
|
(0.01044)
|
(0.01234)
|
|
[-1.89236]
|
[ 0.88602]
|
[-1.65158]
|
[ 1.66134]
|
[ 2.03158]
|
[ 0.65259]
|
|
PIVA ASALOKO PRINCE
|
PIVA ASALOKO PRINCE
IMPORTATION ET INFLATION EN RDC 1980 A2016
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(TC(-1))
|
0.026633
|
0.045647
|
-0.001082
|
2.112184
|
-0.179168
|
-0.159208
|
|
(0.08816)
|
(0.02338)
|
(0.06791)
|
(4.77558)
|
(0.25114)
|
(0.29680)
|
|
[ 0.30209]
|
[ 1.95214]
|
[-0.01593]
|
[ 0.44229]
|
[-0.71341]
|
[-0.53641]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(DB(-1))
|
-0.173019
|
-0.011904
|
0.051192
|
2.233979
|
0.024549
|
-0.066002
|
|
(0.05991)
|
(0.01589)
|
(0.04615)
|
(3.24547)
|
(0.17068)
|
(0.20171)
|
|
[-2.88781]
|
[-0.74910]
|
[ 1.10915]
|
[ 0.68834]
|
[ 0.14384]
|
[-0.32722]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.527301
|
0.356940
|
0.717608
|
0.220793
|
0.388093
|
0.309929
|
|
Adj. R-squared
|
0.404749
|
0.190221
|
0.644395
|
0.018776
|
0.229450
|
0.131022
|
|
Sum sq. resids
|
31.17491
|
2.193088
|
18.50040
|
91476.30
|
252.9856
|
353.3359
|
|
S.E. equation
|
1.074535
|
0.285001
|
0.827768
|
58.20662
|
3.061019
|
3.617529
|
|
F-statistic
|
4.302684
|
2.140968
|
9.801659
|
1.092942
|
2.446335
|
1.732346
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-47.63750
|
-1.187196
|
-38.50562
|
-187.3614
|
-84.27757
|
-90.12409
|
|
Akaike AIC
|
3.179285
|
0.524983
|
2.657464
|
11.16351
|
5.273004
|
5.607091
|
|
Schwarz SC
|
3.534794
|
0.880491
|
3.012972
|
11.51902
|
5.628512
|
5.962599
|
|
Mean dependent
|
-0.071632
|
0.069858
|
0.954778
|
28.86579
|
0.001414
|
0.174857
|
|
S.D. dependent
|
1.392742
|
0.316711
|
1.388112
|
58.76088
|
3.487110
|
3.880678
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)
|
7427.043
|
|
|
|
|
|
Determinant resid covariance
|
1565.274
|
|
|
|
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-426.7039
|
|
|
|
|
|
Akaike information criterion
|
27.81165
|
|
|
|
|
|
Schwarz criterion
|
30.47796
|
|
|
|
|
|
Number of coefficients
|
60
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IMPORTATION ET INFLATION EN RDC 1980 A2016
ESTIMATION DU VECM PARTIEL
|
Vector Error Correction Estimates
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Date: 08/05/19 Time: 22:53
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Sample (adjusted): 1982 2016
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Included observations: 35 after adjustments
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Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
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Cointegration Restrictions:
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A(5,1)=0, A(5,2)=0, A(4,1)=0, A(4,2)=0
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Convergence achieved after 13 iterations.
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Not all cointegrating vectors are identified
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LR test for binding restrictions (rank = 2):
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Chi-square(4)
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7.408943
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Probability
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0.115792
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Cointegrating Eq:
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CointEq1
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CointEq2
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LINF(-1)
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0.135154
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1.080568
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LIMP(-1)
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-0.065817
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-0.284635
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LMM(-1)
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-0.036364
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-0.002718
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TCH(-1)
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0.000582
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0.001162
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TC(-1)
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0.159596
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0.477164
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DB(-1)
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0.185231
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-0.297400
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Error Correction:
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D(LINF)
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D(LIMP)
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D(LMM)
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D(TCH)
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D(TC)
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D(DB)
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CointEq1
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-0.307701
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0.044611
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-1.145553
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0.000000
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0.000000
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-1.257164
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(0.17083)
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(0.04689)
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(0.12549)
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(0.00000)
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(0.00000)
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(0.48083)
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[-1.80122]
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[ 0.95131]
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[-9.12897]
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[NA]
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[NA]
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[-2.61457]
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CointEq2
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-0.477418
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-0.099468
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-0.084522
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0.000000
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0.000000
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1.577814
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PIVA ASALOKO PRINCE
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IMPORTATION ET INFLATION EN RDC 1980 A2016
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(0.16964)
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(0.04657)
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(0.12461)
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(0.00000)
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(0.00000)
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(0.47747)
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[-2.81436]
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[-2.13603]
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[-0.67830]
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[NA]
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[NA]
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[ 3.30452]
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D(LINF(-1))
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-0.008570
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-0.010442
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0.228379
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1.948111
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-0.463815
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-0.541302
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(0.16473)
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(0.04519)
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(0.12771)
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(9.35011)
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(0.48850)
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(0.57017)
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[-0.05203]
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[-0.23108]
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[ 1.78831]
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[ 0.20835]
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[-0.94946]
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[-0.94938]
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D(LIMP(-1))
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-0.880694
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-0.024345
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-0.903234
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-8.395955
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-1.009086
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0.061399
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(0.69271)
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(0.19003)
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(0.53703)
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(39.3189)
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(2.05424)
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(2.39765)
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[-1.27138]
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[-0.12811]
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[-1.68191]
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[-0.21353]
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[-0.49122]
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[ 0.02561]
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D(LMM(-1))
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-0.245998
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0.089470
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-0.615863
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-6.289098
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1.749578
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-0.210394
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(0.21168)
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(0.05807)
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(0.16411)
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(12.0153)
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(0.62774)
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(0.73269)
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[-1.16212]
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[ 1.54069]
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[-3.75281]
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[-0.52343]
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[ 2.78709]
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[-0.28716]
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D(TCH(-1))
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-0.007312
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0.000959
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-0.004735
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0.372707
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0.019770
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0.007569
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(0.00351)
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(0.00096)
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(0.00272)
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(0.19937)
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(0.01042)
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(0.01216)
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[-2.08167]
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[ 0.99567]
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[-1.73896]
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[ 1.86943]
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[ 1.89804]
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[ 0.62254]
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D(TC(-1))
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0.057861
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0.044894
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0.020566
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1.261324
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-0.157738
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-0.189693
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(0.08875)
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(0.02435)
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(0.06880)
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(5.03733)
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(0.26318)
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(0.30717)
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[ 0.65199]
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[ 1.84398]
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[ 0.29892]
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[ 0.25040]
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[-0.59936]
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[-0.61754]
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D(DB(-1))
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-0.173808
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-0.011641
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0.051149
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2.391184
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0.023341
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-0.067600
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(0.05808)
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(0.01593)
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(0.04502)
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(3.29650)
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(0.17223)
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(0.20102)
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[-2.99275]
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[-0.73068]
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[ 1.13602]
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[ 0.72537]
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[ 0.13552]
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[-0.33629]
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R-squared
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0.554601
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0.351772
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0.730513
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0.193841
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0.375165
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0.312692
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Adj. R-squared
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0.439128
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0.183713
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0.660646
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-0.015164
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0.213171
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0.134501
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Sum sq. resids
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29.37443
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2.210715
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17.65493
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94640.36
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258.3304
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351.9213
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S.E. equation
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1.043044
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0.286144
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0.808632
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59.20472
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3.093185
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3.610280
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F-statistic
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4.802835
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2.093143
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10.45576
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0.927449
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2.315917
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1.754813
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Log likelihood
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-46.59644
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-1.327288
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-37.68702
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-187.9564
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-84.64345
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-90.05389
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Akaike AIC
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3.119796
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0.532988
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2.610687
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11.19751
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5.293911
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5.603080
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Schwarz SC
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3.475304
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0.888496
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2.966195
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11.55302
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5.649419
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5.958588
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Mean dependent
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-0.071632
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0.069858
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0.954778
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28.86579
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0.001414
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0.174857
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S.D. dependent
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1.392742
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0.316711
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1.388112
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58.76088
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3.487110
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3.880678
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Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)
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7605.360
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Determinant resid covariance
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1602.854
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Log likelihood
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-430.4083
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Akaike information criterion
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28.02333
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Schwarz criterion
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30.68964
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Number of coefficients
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60
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PIVA ASALOKO PRINCE
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IMPORTATION ET INFLATION EN RDC 1980 A2016
PIVA ASALOKO PRINCE
TEST DE BRUITS BLANCS
RESIDUS DE LA PREMIERE EQUATION
IMPORTATION ET INFLATION EN RDC 1980 A2016
RESIDUS DE LA DEUXIEME EQUATION
PIVA ASALOKO PRINCE
RESIDUS DE LA TROISIEME EQUATION
PIVA ASALOKO PRINCE
IMPORTATION ET INFLATION EN RDC 1980 A2016
RESIDUS DE LA QUATRIEME EQUATION
PIVA ASALOKO PRINCE
IMPORTATION ET INFLATION EN RDC 1980 A2016
RESIDUS DE LA CINQUIEME EQUATION
RESIDUS DE LA SIXIEME EQUATION
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