Energizing toward independence: eu energy diversification policies since the Russia-Ukraine war: a comparative study of France, Germany, and Spain

Vesalius College, Brussels School of Governance
Vrije Universiteit Brussel

ENERGIZING TOWARD INDEPENDENCE:
EU ENERGY DIVERSIFICATION POLICIES SINCE THE
RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF
FRANCE, GERMANY, AND SPAIN

Written by Alice Nicolleau

MA Thesis

Master in Diplomacy and Global Governance

Supervisor: Zafer Kizilkaya

Date of Submission: September 1^st 2025
Word count: 11902

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Research Question:

To what extent have EU energy diversification policies been implemented into national strategies in Spain, France, and Germany since aftermath of the war in Ukraine?

Main argument:

EU energy diversification since the war in Ukraine has reduced dependence on Russia but produced uneven national trajectories: France leans on nuclear sovereignty, Germany on rapid LNG substitution, and Spain on hydrogen and regasification. These divergences expose persistent tensions between EU climate ambition and national energy security imperatives.

Abstract:

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked a turning point in European energy governance, forcing the European Union (EU) to reduce its dependence on Russian fossil fuels and accelerate diversification strategies. This thesis investigates how EU-level diversification policies, notably REPowerEU, the revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED III), and the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED), have been translated into national strategies in France, Germany, and Spain. Using a qualitative comparative case study and drawing on official policy documents, statistical data, and three expert interviews, the analysis traces the causal pathway from EU inputs to national instruments and measurable outputs. The findings show significant variation in national responses: France prioritizes nuclear power and cautious hydrogen imports to preserve sovereignty; Germany has relied on rapid LNG substitution and renewable acceleration but remains carbon-intensive; Spain leverages regasification and hydrogen export ambitions while constrained by limited interconnections. The comparison highlights the tradeoffs between energy security and climate goals, as well as structural asymmetries in infrastructure and resources. Overall, the study argues that while EU diversification has reduced vulnerability to Russia, its uneven national implementation reveals enduring tensions between common European objectives and domestic political, economic, and geographic constraints, seeking for more unity within Member States.

Keywords: European Union; Energy Diversification; Energy Transition; Member-States; Ukraine-Russia war

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Table of content

I- Introduction 4

II- Literature Review 6

1) Energy Security in International Relations Grand theories 6

a) Concept of Energy Security 6

b) Energy security and power . 7

c) Interdependency and Cooperation .. 7

d) Securitization and Constructivism .. 8

2) Energy Transition at the EU Level . 9

a) Energy Transformation Measure . 9

b) EU Sanctions on Russian Energy 10

c) Green Transition and Sustainability Framework 10

d) Energy Governance and Policy Networks . 11

e) Critical Political Economy . 12

3) Member States Level: Implementation and Differentiation . 12

a) Persistent Divisions in Decision-Making . 12

b) The Evolution of the Energy Mix 13

c) Gaps in the Literature . 14

III- Conceptual and Methodological chapter ... 15

1) Theoretical approaches 15

2) Operationalization of key concepts . 15

3) Methodological framework . 16

a) Choice of Research Strategy .. 16

b) Comparative Case Study and Case Selection 17

c) Sample Design 18

d) Interviews 19

e) Ethical Considerations 19

f) Limitations 20

4) Methodology of Analysis 20

IV- Analysis 22

1) Analysis Framework . 22

2) European Union Policy . 23

a) Historic break: reducing dependence on Russia . 23

b) Sanctions 24

c) REPowerEU 24

d) EU climate framework and the role of nuclear power 25

3) Case-studies . 27

a) France . 27

b) Germany . 29

c) Spain .. 30

4) Within-Case Analysis 33

V- Conclusion .. 35

References .. 37

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I- Introduction

At the European Union (EU) level, there has been a notable increase in interest in energy and climate issues in recent years. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered an unprecedented energy crisis within the EU, marked by soaring energy prices. This development pushed the EU to accelerate its energy transition efforts to reduce dependency on Russian hydrocarbons (Bricout et al., 2022; Miík, 2022).

The war in Ukraine occurs against a backdrop of a global climate crisis. Since the 1980s, Europe has been the continent most affected by climate change, with warming twice as fast as the average (Copernicus, 2024; Lee et al., 2023). In response, the EU has implemented a number of ambitious measures, notably reaching climate neutrality by 2050, with a 55% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 (Climate Action, n.d.).

Russia's invasion of Ukraine exposed the EU's vulnerability through its dependence on Russian gas, intensifying debates between energy security and the transition toward green energies. Indeed, the EU decided to progressively reduce its imports of Russian energy, while Russia considerably diminished its exports. Reshaped by this crisis, Europe's energy policy is now guided by the "energy trilemma" of "environmental sustainability, equity, and energy security" (Kuzemko et al., 2022). Frans Timmermans, former EC vice-president for the Green Deal, said in January 2022 that: "If we really want to stop long-term making Putin very rich, we have to invest in renewables and we need to do it quickly" (Nugent, 2022).

The sanctions imposed by the EU on Russia demonstrated the EU's united strength, capable of responding rapidly to a geopolitical crisis. Nevertheless, it revealed tensions within the EU between short-term objectives (securing supply) and long-term ambitions (carbon neutrality by 2050) (Maruiak, 2024). While some Member States (MS) particularly dependent on Russian gas, have opted for short-term solutions, such as Poland with coal, others have maintained their commitment to GHG emission reductions.

Although replacing Russian energy supplies has been costly for MS and citizens, the crisis could also offer opportunities to accelerate the energy transition and develop more resilient policies (Miík, Nosko; 2023). This is the idea advocated by European institutions which, despite internal political challenges, have progressed towards more ambitious climate policies,

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moving from limited and distinct initiatives to coordinated policies. According to Skjærseth (2021), the notion of "policy mixes" is necessary to provoke change, but it must be coupled with crisis factors to advance policies towards consensus. Launched in May 2022, the European Commission's REPowerEU initiative aims to diversify energy sources, save energy and produce clean energy. One of its main objectives is to increase renewable energy capacity to 42.5% by 2030 (REPowerEU, n.d.). However, concerns about the affordability of energy are strong, resulting in numerous studies and reports.

It is within this context that the present study is situated, aiming to address the following research question: " To what extent have EU energy diversification policies been implemented into national strategies in Spain, France, and Germany since aftermath of the war in Ukraine?" This research project operates in the framework of an ongoing geopolitical tension and the transition towards a greener future. Understanding the application of EU policies through comparative analysis is intended to shed light on their economic and diplomatic impact. Furthermore, I will attempt to provide some answers to the debate between the decisions that must be taken by policy-makers at either EU or national level.

The main hypothesis is to raise awareness of the importance of regional cooperation and Spain's potential diplomatic role in supplying renewable energy to Europe. In other words, green energy from southern countries could strengthen European integration and sovereignty, strategic partnerships and the EU's global leadership in the fight against climate change. My focus in this research is on Germany, France and Spain, three Member States with strong economic weight, size and population, but above with distinct energy strategies. Regarding energy transition, Spain and France adopted rules on gas and electricity costs, and Germany provides financial support for consumers. The lack of a coherent EU-wide rationing system challenges the evolution of its energy policy (Kuzemko et al., 2022). The EU needs to coordinate more effectively between different levels of governance (EU, national, local) to maximize the effectiveness of its actions against climate change (ECRA, 2023).

At the national level, Ukraine's conflict alerted German policymakers to economic risks from cutting Russian gas supplies, which accounted for 55% in 2020. Germany's ability to replace gas is challenging, highlighting its strong dependence on Russia (Halser & Paraschiv, 2022). The national strategy implemented since 2020 plans to integrate hydrogen into the energy mix, but the production, storage, and distribution of hydrogen present technical, economic, and

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socio-political obstacles (McCay, 2014; Mankoff, 2025). In France, the idea that nuclear energy is essential for reducing CO2 emissions, economic growth and environmental sustainability is widely accepted, positioning the country as a model in nuclear energy in Europe. However, debates continue regarding the cost competitiveness and environmental impact of nuclear compared to renewable energies (Pata & Samour, 2022; IEA, n.d.). Spain has one of Europe's highest solar and wind resources, with solar energy potential 20- 25% above northern regions, and ranked 5th globally for wind installed capacity and second in Europe (Escario-Chust et al., 2023; AEE, 2024). Spain could hold a strategic role for the EU in supplying green energy to its European neighbors through interconnections (InfraHidrogeno, 2025; Editorial, 2023; 2024). However, Spain relied of 77.8% of energy imports in 2022, and plans to reduce it to 50% by 2030 (Morgado et al., 2024; MITECO, 2024).

The methodology used follows a qualitative, comparative approach, where the data collected during the three semi-structured interviews with four experts is supported by documents analysis. The data collected is thus innovative and will enrich the literature on energy transition in Europe, offering a new angle on this subject. The results reveled the need for more unity between the Member States to move further toward independence, there has been notable successes, but the energy strategy remain fragmented between MS.

The first section of this paper consists of reviewing the theoretical state of published research. Secondly, we will discuss in detail the methodology used to answer the research question. Finally, before concluding, the study's results will be analyzed highlighting the contributions and limitations of this thesis.