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L'analyse des déterminants de l'endettement extérieur public des pays en développement

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par Sidiki TRAORE
Université de ouagadougou - DEA 2005
  

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ANNEXE 3: Estimation de l'équation de long terme

Dependent Variable: LDTPIB

 

 

 

Method: Least Squares

 
 

 

Date: 05/04/05 Time: 08:58

 
 

 

Sample: 1980 2004

 
 
 

 

Included observations: 25

 

 

 

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

 

 

 

 

 

LSDPIB

0.302383

0.078689

3.842749

0.0009

LTXCHGE

0.320384

0.110046

2.911352

0.0083

BFPIB

-0.044283

0.016316

-2.714134

0.0130

C

1.603641

0.765390

2.095196

0.0485

R-squared

0.682448

Mean dependent var

 

4.572011

Adjusted R-squared

0.637084

S.D. dependent var

 

0.291316

S.E. of regression

0.175496

Akaike info criterion

 

-0.496755

Sum squared resid

0.646775

Schwarz criterion

 

-0.301735

Log likelihood

10.20944

F-statistic

 

15.04365

Durbin-Watson stat

1.442136

Prob(F-statistic)

 

0.000019

ANNEXE 4: Test Breusch Godfrey sur l'équation de long terme

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:

 

 

 

 
 
 

 

F-statistic

0.480681

Probability

0.625680

Obs*R-squared

1.204030

Probability

0.547707

Test Equation:

 

 

 

 

Dependent Variable: RESID

 
 

 

Method: Least Squares

 
 

 

Date: 05/04/05 Time: 10:00

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

 

 

 

 

 

LSDPIB

0.014115

0.087576

0.161173

0.8737

LTXCHGE

-0.015345

0.115851

-0.132453

0.8960

BFPIB

0.003895

0.017276

0.225479

0.8240

C

0.127967

0.808676

0.158243

0.8759

RESID(-1)

0.196709

0.237100

0.829642

0.4170

RESID(-2)

-0.155934

0.250119

-0.623441

0.5404

 

 

 

 

 

R-squared

0.048161

Mean dependent var

5.51E-16

Adjusted R-squared

-0.202323

S.D. dependent var

0.164161

S.E. of regression

0.180004

Akaike info criterion

-0.386115

Sum squared resid

0.615626

Schwarz criterion

-0.093584

Log likelihood

10.82643

F-statistic

 

0.192273

Durbin-Watson stat

1.804584

Prob(F-statistic)

0.961799

ANNEXE 5: Test de white sur l'équation de long terme

White Heteroskedasticity Test:

 

 

 

 

 
 
 

 

F-statistic

0.962108

Probability

0.477622

Obs*R-squared

6.070680

Probability

0.415319

Test Equation:

 

 

 

 

Dependent Variable: RESID^2

 
 

 

Method: Least Squares

 
 

 

Date: 05/04/05 Time: 10:00

 
 

 

Sample: 1980 2004

 
 
 

 

Included observations: 25

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

 

 

 

 

 

C

5.636928

4.315363

1.306246

0.2079

LSDPIB

0.109216

0.084082

1.298932

0.2104

LSDPIB^2

-0.044726

0.032861

-1.361074

0.1903

LTXCHGE

-1.691492

1.455980

-1.161755

0.2605

LTXCHGE^2

0.136974

0.121758

1.124968

0.2754

BFPIB

0.069822

0.061343

1.138224

0.2700

BFPIB^2

0.002530

0.002164

1.169350

0.2575

 

 

 

 

 

R-squared

0.242827

Mean dependent var

0.025871

Adjusted R-squared

-0.009564

S.D. dependent var

0.047589

S.E. of regression

0.047816

Akaike info criterion

-3.011422

Sum squared resid

0.041154

Schwarz criterion

-2.670136

Log likelihood

44.64277

F-statistic

 

0.962108

Durbin-Watson stat

2.215067

Prob(F-statistic)

0.477622

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