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The real impact of climate change on hospitality and tourism in the USA

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par Hyppolite MOUAFFO
Strayer University-washington DC - MBA 2007
  

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Statement of the Problem

Due to his high touristic potential and capacity, US Tourism and Hospitality represents a fast growing sector of the economy. All over the world, The United States of America represents an important attractive destination for many tourists who still considered this country as a world prototype; consequently, the high demand has been increasing from one year to another. This strategic sector however, still has to deal with the natural phenomenon of climate and weather. Thus, as part of US natural resource, this problem of climatic change appears as a great challenge that even the evolution of the technology doesn't seem to solve.  As a result, US Tourism and Hospitality flow still has to interact with this issue which is still considered as one of the strongest indicator of Tourism and Hospitality activities. Like poverty or criminality, the phenomenon of the influence of climate change on Hospitality and Tourism remains a critical issue for the world community and particularly for US economy where, this industry has become victim and dependant of climate change.

Research Questions

1- Doest the climate change really affects negatively Hospitality and Tourism in US?

2-To what extend does it impact the Tourism and Hospitality flow?

3-What are the area of this industry more affected and is there a hope for tomorrow?

Significance of the Study

In US, Hospitality and Tourism represents a vital resource for its economy. With the globalization, people should increase   their awareness of the impact of some factors such as climatic change, which can really affect   this industry with a wide range of consequences. By focusing attention on this aspect of problem, we're trying as far as possible to stimulate a dialogue among Hospitality and Tourism professionals in US in particular and all over the world in general. The study emphasizes also the need to further research on this aspect of the problem. This sector is still viewed in US , as well as in many part of the world as a business in which community, privates and publics organizations  can choose to get involved, that's why the present study appears as a strategic business planning and market orientation for those who  are managing and coordinating Hospitality and Tourism-related activities. Finally, all tourists world wide are also interested by this study which provides a standardized climatic information's to assist choice on where and when to go for holidays, and what to expect (rain, thermal condition, snow, sunshine).

Research Design and Methodology

To conduct this analysis on the impact of climate change on Hospitality and Tourism in US, the main approach used includes a content analysis. Some research materials have been collected in library as well as in internet.

The exploitation of available data found both online and in the library has been very helpful to conduct such a problem analysis. This method used was highly relevant to learn more efficiently about this issue.

Organization of the Study

As it has been illustrated in the proceedings pages, this study points out how important the Tourism an Hospitality industry as become very important in US and in many part of the world. The important growth in this sector projected this sector to be one of the most important in the International Economy. However, this activity still face a great challenge as a result of natural factor such as climate change , which is still affecting the industry and tends to make it seasonal . Considered as a strategic touristic land with it high touristic potential, US still   has to deal with the phenomenon of climatic change . From the content analysis method used, it has been noticed the insufficiency of research studies relating to this aspect of the problem, even though some researches have started to emerge. By revising such a topic, the hope is to highlight all the different actors of the field, both from public and private sector about the importance of the issue. Hopefully the present study will also make a contribution in academia to advancing the researches in that particular aspect of the problem, which appears more critical for Tourism and Hospitality sector and for international business in general.

The second aspect of this study presents a review of relevant and abundant literature on the issue of the conflictual relationship between climate change and Hospitality/tourism sector. It also discusses the multidimensional way climate changes impact tourism, today and probably tomorrow and some adaptative strategies. By reviewing and discussing such impacts, the hope is that this study as many others become a guideline for all Tourism and hospitality professional as well as tourists worldwide.

CHAPTER II THE REVIEW OF LITERATURE

General impacts of climate change on Hospitality and Tourism in US and adaptatives strategies to tackle the issue

The present study of the impact of climate change on Hospitality and Tourism in US , appears as one of the most critical concern of our century due to the importance of this sector to the American and world's economy. Either these impacts can be view as positive or negative, direct or indirect, quantitative or qualitative, a wide range of studies strongly agree that climate change really influence Hospitality and Tourism sector everywhere. The degree of interest toward this particular concern has generated an important literature, shared between five different branches. Firstly, there are a few studies (e.g. Madddison 2001) that built a statistical model of the behavior of certain groups of tourists as a function of weather and climate. Secondly, there are few studies (e.g. Abegg, 1996) that relate the fates of particular touristic destinations to climate change. The third branch of studies, (e.g. Matzarakis, 2002) defines some indicators of attractiveness of certain weather conditions to tourists. Fourthly, there are few studies, (e.g. Hamilton et al. 2003) that use «simulation models» of the tourism sector to study the impact of climate change on tourist flows. Finally a handful of studies (e.g., Berritella et

al., 2004) analyze the economic impact of the climate change on tourism.

Prior to the discussion of the abundant literature on various aspect of the impact of climate change on the pattern of Hospitality and Tourism flow and how tourist behavior might change as a result of changing weather scenarios, it is first necessary to review and summarize the significance of this essential sector on the world's and the American's economy.

It is generally admitted that many part of our lives are influenced by the weather and climate, from the crops we grow to the social activities we engage in, particularly in Hospitality and Tourism sector. Here, the natural environment and climate conditions are very important factors which determine the attractiveness of a region as a touristic or a holiday destination. As it explain by Ghislaine Dubois(1995) a climate adequate for tourism should provide both safety because its very important that tourist be sheltered on from climatic accident and natural catastrophe which they generate. Adequate climate for tourism should also provide amenities, which include sunshine, absence of frequency rainfall, a minimum of comfort (acceptable temperature for example) and a minimization of health risk associated to climate. Talking about health risk associate to climate, it is known that the exhibition of sunrays can cause skin cancer, as well as association of cool temperature and violent winds can increase the risk of heard attacks; and those moist winds increases cerebral and vascular accident frequency; so, over-heated summers and more disturbed winters are not welcome. Some categories of population are particularly concerned (Young children and old person).Talking about how the climate can affect tourists behaviors, Besancenot (1989:40) recalls that 20-30%of emergency return home by tourists originate from climate aggression, even though the sanitary level of the country can also affect tourists behavior(mosquitoes, yellow fever, dandy fever...)

In US, people all aver the year choose to move from one State to another for holidays according to the weather conditions. This shows how climate change can really affects Tourism/Hospitality activity, particularly in the later stage of the twentieth century where holidays have become an essential part of our lives, accounting for one of the most costly items of expenditure. As International Tourism has become one of the most important and rapidly growing services industries in the world, it continued success is closely and symbiotically related to some environmental factors. Many experts claim that the touristic industry now involved more people and more money than any other industry on earth. Although this claim may be arguable, tourism is becoming increasingly vital in the economy of many countries.

Discussing about this sector growth, the World Tourism Organization forecasts that international arrivals will increase from 594 million in 1996 to 1600 million in 2020 with a growth from $621 billion by 2000 to $1.5 trillion by 2010. Thomas S. Powers (1978) discuss the economic significance of American Tourism, and according to this author, in 1972, Tourism expenditures climbed above $60 billion. The Travel Data Center strongly agrees with this opinion and points out that in US, for every dollar spent in the nation's grocery store, 66cents is spent on tourism. In eight States-California, Florida, New York, Texas , Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan and Ohio, Hospitality and Tourism expenditures have passed the billions dollars mark. Also, in three States-Florida, Nevada and Hawaii, Tourism is the principal industry. As international Tourism is now one of the fastest growing components of International Trade, the United States represents an international tourism attraction. Travel expenditure made in this country by tourists have been growing at an annual rate of almost 14 percent in recent years while the number of actual visitors has grown by 9.5percent, so the United States' travel receipts and arrivals has being increasing more rapidly than the total world trade rate. The United States Travel Service, which has been establish especially to attract traveler to America, states that Tourism/Hospitality was the major export industry, accounting for 4.9 percent of all United States export in 1974. The World Tourism Organization (2002) recognizes the importance of American tourism and its strong domestic touristic market. Instead of this high tourism potential, it is generally accepted that climate remains an important factor of the regions tourism resource base. It is assume that various place in the world have a tourism potential, however, there is also weather and climate sets limits; for example tourism administrators do not promote places with a little potential, as this would not be profitable. On the other hand, tourists who choose to visit such places would suffer inconvenience (transport costs discomfort,) financial loose can also result from weather variation and change as discussed by De Freitas(1984)

Economic impacts of climate change on Hospitality and Tourism industry

If a handful of studies focus on the economic implication of climate change on Hospitality and Tourism, it is probably because of the previewed economic significance of this sector which according to Graham & Todd (2003) is the second largest sector in the economy and remains the largest employer in the US, providing 14,4million jobs annually. In addition, in some American states such as Florida Tourism remains the biggest industry. A wide range of findings, Witt and Witt (1995) and Lim (1995) shows that the demand forecasting, in the majority of studies, is focused on economic factors. This is the idea defended by Barritella et al (2004) who concludes that many studies analyze the economic implication of the climate change on Hospitality and Tourism. This might be probably because before being an attraction, tourism is a business. By discussing the problem of economic impact of climate change on tourism, Sutcliffe & Sinclair (1980) point out the idea that economic impact of climate change on Tourism relates mostly to problems in the off-peak period, particularly the lost of profit due to the inefficient use of resources and facilities. This argument is approved respectively by Manning and Powers (1984); William and Shaw (1991) that finally make tourism and hospitality a seasonal activity, consequently, the negative effects of climate change may lead to a shortage of hotels rooms in peak- season, and the creation of excess capacity can have economically disastrous effects. The underutilization of facilities in the off- peak season along with greatly reduced revenues is inevitable, because the majority of the capital assets are inflexible as they have not many alternative uses. This is the view of Mathieson and wall (1982). Even though some companies in the service accommodation sector close during the off-pick season, many must remain open to obtain sufficient income in order to cover their fixed costs, which represent a large proportion of the total cost. The economic impact is not only negative as it is state by Grant and Human (1997) who outline some potential positive economic impact of climate change on Tourism and Hospitality. For example, maintenance work on building or attractions is typically scheduled for the off -peak period and supports construction jobs and specialists trade.

According to Murphy1985, up - market hotels in the serviced accommodation sector have been very successful in attaining usage efficiently. These hotels are generally committed to open all year round for business in order to keep their highly skill staff. This is achieved by making concessions to attract off-peak season trade, such as reduced rate to the business sector to try to attract business travelers during the week, and off - peak season rates, and get away specialist as insensitive to the public to visit during the week ends as well as their continued activities with coach tours. In contract small guesthouses and family own often have little or no motivation to generate business in the off- pick season Murphy (1985). As result, he suggests a strategy stating that business and the community need to attain sufficient revenues from a few hectic weeks in the summer in order to ensure success for the whole year.

About the economic impact of climate change on Tourism/Hospitality in US, Hostelling, a Harvard economist uses a Travel Cost Model, developed in the late 1940s, (TC), to emphasize this idea. This model is used in order to calculate the value of the United States parks in monetary terms. Hostel ling's final idea is that the costs that people incur travelling to a site reflects their willingness to pay for recreational experience at that site. As travel costs increase and therefore the price of the visit as a result of climate change, the number of trip will decrease. This theory has been explored and applied in touristic demand estimation by Sutherland(1982) , Park et al (2002), Morey et al.,(2002), Hesseln et al.(2003) . Another economic impact of climate change in Hospitality and Tourism is analyzed on nature-based tourism, which is an important component of American Tourism. A study by Eagles et al (2000) estimates the visitation to park and protected area over 2.6 billion visitors' a day. Moving along the same idea, Scott and Mc Boyle (2001), use another theory, the «Tourism Climate Index» to find that the length and quality of summer tourism season would improve markedly under climate change; consequently, changes in visitors numbers and seasonal visitation pattern appears very important for park revenue and the economy of nearby communities.

In US, Tourism/Hospitality activity has to accommodate with different seasons. For example, winter tourism is recognized as potentially vulnerable to global climate change and the ski industry is one of the particular focuses. D. Scott (2003) discusses the economical impact of climate change in winter tourism. In US, as snow remains the main element for winter- tourism used for some sport tourism such as skiing, snowmobile, a lack of snow as a result of climate change calls news financial adaptation strategy such as snowmaking. Scott et al. was the first study to examine this strategy in 2002. In another study carried out in 2003, he pointed out the idea that the additional snowmaking requirement and greater energy required to make snow in warmer average temperatures would represent an important economic cost increase that could affect the profitability of some ski area.

Beside the thesis of negative and positive economic impact of climate change on Hospitality and tourism, a recent study by Barritella et al( 2004) demonstrates how tourism, economic impact and climate change are represented as two additives shocks. Firstly there is a transfer of income from the country that received fewer tourists to those that received more as US. Secondly, there is a shift in demand as consumers behave differently while on holiday. His final conclusion is that global impact can be negligible.

If the growth of tourism sector relies on climate, consequently climate change can have some environmental consequences.

Environmental impacts.

Among the five branches of literature on the impact of climate change on Hospitality and Tourism, there are few studies such as Abbegs (1996) which relate the fates of particular tourist destination to climate change. Ecological impacts are largely synonymous with the negative effects occurring due to the concentration of visitors during the peak season at a destination. This includes for example, congested rural lanes, disturbance of wild life, and physical erosion of footpath sand litter problems.

Manning and Powers (1984) emphasize the strain of tourism activities on the ecological carrying capacity of a particular destination, due to the heavy usage of the peak- season. A study by Butler 1994 points out that the intensity of the pressure on often fragile environments caused by overcrowding and over use during the summer is often cited as one of the main environmental problem of tourism seasonality; however, he argues that areas with high pick usage may be in the long run better off than having the use spread more evenly throughout the year. A similar view is` taken by Hartman, who states that the `lengthy of «dead season» is the only chance for the ecological and social environment to recover fully. In a study of theory, concept and methods in Tourism Climate Research, C.R de Freitas 1990 concludes that Human response to climate is largely a matter of perception, with the exception of the thermal component. He points out the idea that some climate variables are entirely physical (e.g. rain), some are physiological, (e.g. temperature), while some are simply psychological, (e.g. clear blue sky) and some the combination of all the three. A large branch of the literature singles out the thermal component of the climate impact on tourism as the most important. Therefore, the relationship between atmospheric environment and enjoyable of outdoor touristic activity may be seen to be a function of facets of on-site atmospheric conditions.

For example, meteorological element such as rain and high wind can directly or indirectly affect tourist's satisfaction and causing some inconvenience. Other things that fall into ecological impact are rain (duration), rain days (frequency), ice, snow, severe weather, air quality and ultraviolet radiation. As a result of his research, De Freitas (1990) concludes that thermal component is a main factor determining the desirability of weather. Certain behavioral adjustments (use of shade umbrellas, windbreaks and possibly increase or decrease of swims) serve to reduce the beach user's sensitivity to on-site atmospheric conditions which can indirectly have some socio cultural effects

Socio- cultural impact of climate change

Climate change makes Hospitality and Tourism seasonal with a wide range of consequences, so the socio- cultural impacts includes not only variation on the host community but also on the visitors. In USA, these impacts are view and analyze on local community. Problems for local people include for example, crowded street, hotels saturation, slow traffic, lack of parking, increase on the cost of community services due to dramatic increase in population during summer months, which place a strain on regular infrastructure and services. In an amazing study carried by Mathieson and Wall

(1982 ) , the attention is draw on the link between tourism, climate change and increased crime due to the higher number of people present all over the American cities during the peak- season. A similar argumentation is developed by Murphy (1985) who states that in such a situation, extra facilities are required , extra police, sanitary, heath and park personnel have to be hired during the tourist peak season so that levels of services may be maintained. Other social impacts are related to higher prices during the peak season, and increase risk of accidents. Manning and Powers (1984) regard these problems as a strain on the social carrying capacity on the destination which might result in resentment from the local communities.

Some positives impacts on hospitality and tourism due to climate change are analyzed however in a study by Murphy 1985 which relates that for some communities, «the lull before and after storm» helps to make the season more bearable and the industry tolerable. Many residents only make full use of local amenities and facilities in the off- peak period. Even though the concentration of activities during the peak-season produces similar effects to tourists themselves, theses impacts have been largely neglected by many researchers.

If visitor's enjoyment might be reduced due to the overcrowding of attraction sites and the lack of capabilities during the peak demand periods, in contrast, in off peak season, many facilities might be closed and the full range of services may not be available.

The closure, delay, or cancellation of tourism attractions as a result of climate do not only affects potentials visitors, but also can lower the reputation of the overall image of a destination. Climate change also impact hospitality and tourism employment. Recover (2000) explores the factor responsible for the numerical flexibility in the hotel labor force and attempt to identify the adjustment mechanism between employment and tourism demand. The most important issue in relation of climate change impact on hospitality and tourism remains the difficulty of recruiting and maintaining full time staff as it was said by Yacoumis (1980.) The socio cultural impact of climate changes on hospitality and tourism in outdoor activities especially on outdoor recreation and sport tourism. Since most these activities take place outdoor, they are subject to the possibly disruption, delay, postponement or cancellation due to adverse weather. In such activities, climatic conditions can affect the enjoyment and safety of the participants.

For example, forecasts of bad weather make many less committed fans reluctant to watch an event in an open stadium or uncovered stands. In addition quality of play can be diminished by bad weather on the playing field. Finally, the multidimensional impact of climate change tend to endangered the Hospitality and Tourism sector , so some global strategies appears very important to save this crucial sector of American and International economy

Some Global strategies

As a natural phenomenon, the problem of climate change which can be expanded beyond the borders appears as a global issue. Consequently, one of the main strategy is to pay a global attention on it .So, in recognizing the high dependence of Tourism on climate conditions, and the high vulnerability of many destinations to climate change impacts, the World Tourism Organization made an important initial step to address the complex relations between climate change and tourism by convening the first International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism in Djerba (Tunisia) in 2003. With this Declaration, there is basic framework for further action. In brief this Declaration marks an important stage in establishing that serious international attention, under the leadership of the World Tourism Organization (WTO), is now being paid to this subject. As this conference raises the awareness of the inter-relationship between tourism and climate change, it emphasizes some serious concerns arose in the area

First the need for a clear communication on the subject in order that tourism industry interest can see the potential implication for their sector. Next, to understand that raising the industry's awareness is a global issue, since almost every country has a tourism sector which is for importance in its national economy and has important inter-sectoral linkages. It will be important to ensure that tourism authorities and governments understand how their own industry and economy may be affected vis-à-vis their current potential competitors. And then, it was acknowledged that, in raising the industry awareness, some actions need to be taken to deal with the time scale involved. But it is important to recognize` that tourism activities have it own responsibility on the event of climate change, particularly on pollution which covers all aspect of the tourism activities. This was recently agree by Sarah Nicholls (2006), who states that tourism activity is itself a contributor to the problem of climate change due to it dependency on fossil fuel consumption. So, enforcing the principle of `polluter pays' is important as a global strategy. On his final section, the Djerba Declaration shows it, even though no specific calls for action emerged. However, the conference focused on the key co-coordinating role wich the World Tourism Organization should take in future. The suggestion is that the WTO should act as a clearing house for information on the subject. As the Djerba declaration makes clear, the WTO should be kept informed of all relevant studies and pilots projects, and should build a database of best international practice. these research should be use to develop a blue print for monitoring the effects of climate change on tourism.wto should disseminate this blue print to all interested parties in order to facilitate the planning of adaptation measure in future

Future paths and expectations

The main limitation of forecasting the impact of climate change on hospitality and tourism either in US or elsewhere is the remaining uncertainty on the extend of global warming and also its local effects. Future researches are hopefully expected to provide more details. However, it is already important to analyze the potential effects since the time of response of the tourism industry to environmental change is directly related to the life time cycle of the tourism product (20-30years). The first message to be addressed to tourism stakeholders is that in the three or four coming decades, climate change will seriously impacts on tourism, sometimes dramatically. But it is still impossible to predict what will really happen, so the most adapted technique to forward the message seems to be the development of contrasted scenarios, so that the operators can benchmark expected effects of climate change. The main policy question that follows is what has to be done in such a context of uncertainty? Jean-Paul Ceron and Ghislaine Dubois (1995) analyze three options: Either to wait until the level of knowledge increases due to the fact that short terms responses should be more efficient than long term precautionary measures. But due to the rigidity of tourism supply and the irreversibility of environmental process involved, this option might involved a high level of risk, and long-term cost might exceed short - term benefit. The second option discussed should be to trust the ability of technology to face environmental change. This option can be limited by two arguments:The first is environmental; an increased artificialisation of tourism, favored by the evolution of technology will undoubtedly increase the impact of tourism on natural environment, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission. The response would indirectly increase the problem. However, it is not certain that tourism operators might be sensitive to this environemental argument which is an externality of the tourism business.

The second argument is economic; the capitalistic intensity of tourism sector is dramatically increasing in industrialized countries such as US. The profitability of tourism sector already quiet low is likely to decrease with these additional investments. For example in France, the majority of ski resorts have never been and will probably never be profitable, they are strongly indebted and have to be supported by publics institutions, which might be reluctant in the near future to go on wasting money in such an uncertain business

The last option discussed could be a precautionary attitude which would encourage flexibility of tourism and improve it delays of response to climate change. For example developing off-ski activities in ski resorts could be more sensible and constitute better insurance for future than investing in artificial snow cover, which will never replace a white natural mountain in winter. In that perspective, climate change responses can be integrated in a broader risk management policy of the tourism sector. In addition, promoting high quality campsites and light accommodation, developing hotels which can be easily transformed in mains residences drive the situation more reversible. Climatic uncertainty should be introduced into evaluation criteria of the opportunity of tourism investment.

Conclusion

As it has been illustrated in the proceedings pages, the impact of climate change on Hospitality and tourism appears as an extensive , multi-faced and multidimensional subject area which has received and will probably continued to receive a great deal of attention due to it importance , especially in recent years.

All over the findings, it is by no means original to recall that hospitality and tourism, be it in US or elsewhere is strongly conditioned by climate. The phenomenon of climatic change due to greenhouse effect appears as one of the greatest challenge of our century and could positively or aversively affects one of the major activities of the national and international economy. If some adaptative strategies are continue to be carry out with the evolution of the technology, the cost remains a great deal and sometimes this adaptative strategies can harm the environment with others consequences

As a natural phenomenon, the future can still predict continuous impact and the only hope is that this would not totally impact the growth of this sector which also impacts the climate.

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