Développement financier et croissance économique au Bénin

ANNEXES

SELECTION DES VARIABLES

Dependent Variable: LPIBPOP
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/23/09 Time: 23:45
Sample: 1972 2004
Included observations: 33
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
C	6.696967	4.031158	1.661301	0.1174
LINVPIB	0.036067	0.024464	1.474281	0.1611
LOUV	-0.035587	0.059751	-0.595598	0.5603
LOUVER	0.057197	0.062126	0.920668	0.3718
LCOUV	0.026998	0.048963	0.551383	0.5895
LDEDUC	-0.007120	0.018270	-0.389679	0.7023
LTCHOM	0.015241	0.041212	0.369814	0.7167
LTACT	7.220513	5.625156	1.283611	0.2188
LRACTIN	-3.827606	3.037743	-1.260016	0.2269
LDEF	0.031952	0.024179	1.321488	0.2061
LTSCPR	-0.006901	0.033927	-0.203404	0.8416
LTSCS	0.005239	0.017786	0.294579	0.7724
LTSSUP	-0.006601	0.014123	-0.467350	0.6470
LTANPH	-0.007244	0.223595	-0.032398	0.9746
LCHAN	0.001774	0.002667	0.665231	0.5160
LIPC	0.004296	0.015971	0.268999	0.7916
LCAPHY	-0.002650	0.002562	-1.034475	0.3173
LDG	0.027684	0.007459	3.711365	0.0021
R-squared	0.996820	Mean dependent var		2.439386
Adjusted R-squared	0.993215	S.D. dependent var		0.055436
S.E. of regression	0.004566	Akaike info criterion		-7.637799
Sum squared resid	0.000313	Schwarz criterion		-6.821522
Log likelihood	144.0237	F-statistic		276.5553
Durbin-Watson stat	1.670796	Prob(F-statistic)		0.000000

Tests de stationnarité

En niveau

Lpibpop

ADF Test Statistic	-2.164925	1% Critical Value*		-4.2826
		5% Critical Value		-3.5614
		10% Critical Value		-3.2138
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LPIBPOP)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/24/09 Time: 00:14
Sample(adjusted): 1974 2004
Included observations: 31 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LPIBPOP(-1)	-0.151601	0.070026	-2.164925	0.0394
D(LPIBPOP(-1))	0.424574	0.162765	2.608502	0.0146
C	0.360882	0.164154	2.198441	0.0367
@TREND(1972)	0.000743	0.000401	1.855623	0.0745
R-squared	0.281303	Mean dependent var		0.006146
Adjusted R-squared	0.201448	S.D. dependent var		0.006429
S.E. of regression	0.005745	Akaike info criterion		-7.361044
Sum squared resid	0.000891	Schwarz criterion		-7.176013
Log likelihood	118.0962	F-statistic		3.522661
Durbin-Watson stat	2.324727	Prob(F-statistic)		0.028289

LDG

ADF Test Statistic	-1.793457	1% Critical Value*		-4.2826
		5% Critical Value		-3.5614
		10% Critical Value		-3.2138
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LDG)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/24/09 Time: 00:17
Sample(adjusted): 1974 2004
Included observations: 31 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LDG(-1)	-0.162886	0.090822	-1.793457	0.0841
D(LDG(-1))	0.539068	0.196364	2.745247	0.0106
C	3.757469	2.074309	1.811432	0.0812
@TREND(1972)	0.017746	0.009238	1.921008	0.0653
R-squared	0.258580	Mean dependent var		0.115382
Adjusted R-squared	0.176200	S.D. dependent var		0.139290
S.E. of regression	0.126424	Akaike info criterion		-1.178433
Sum squared resid	0.431543	Schwarz criterion		-0.993403
Log likelihood	22.26572	F-statistic		3.138866
Durbin-Watson stat	1.950766	Prob(F-statistic)		0.041646

LINVPIB

ADF Test Statistic	-1.829147	1% Critical Value*		-4.2826
		5% Critical Value		-3.5614
		10% Critical Value		-3.2138
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LINVPIB)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/24/09 Time: 00:18
Sample(adjusted): 1974 2004
Included observations: 31 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LINVPIB(-1)	-2.101384	1.148833	-1.829147	0.0784
D(LINVPIB(-1))	2.332953	1.589393	1.467827	0.1537
C	0.017874	0.018440	0.969273	0.3410
@TREND(1972)	-0.002977	0.001179	-2.525444	0.0177
R-squared	0.209966	Mean dependent var		-0.009131
Adjusted R-squared	0.122184	S.D. dependent var		0.050859
S.E. of regression	0.047651	Akaike info criterion		-3.129932
Sum squared resid	0.061305	Schwarz criterion		-2.944902
Log likelihood	52.51395	F-statistic		2.391912
Durbin-Watson stat	1.362862	Prob(F-statistic)		0.090571

LDEF

ADF Test Statistic	-2.442362	1% Critical Value*		-4.2826
		5% Critical Value		-3.5614
		10% Critical Value		-3.2138
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LDEF)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/24/09 Time: 00:20
Sample(adjusted): 1974 2004
Included observations: 31 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LDEF(-1)	-0.184170	0.075407	-2.442362	0.0214
D(LDEF(-1))	0.464167	0.161129	2.880723	0.0077
C	0.725602	0.273482	2.653195	0.0132
@TREND(1972)	0.008994	0.004429	2.030769	0.0522
R-squared	0.354668	Mean dependent var		0.059412
Adjusted R-squared	0.282964	S.D. dependent var		0.068099
S.E. of regression	0.057665	Akaike info criterion		-2.748425
Sum squared resid	0.089781	Schwarz criterion		-2.563394
Log likelihood	46.60058	F-statistic		4.946303
Durbin-Watson stat	2.239307	Prob(F-statistic)		0.007269

LMASSPIB

ADF Test Statistic	-2.874563	1% Critical Value*		-4.2826
		5% Critical Value		-3.5614
		10% Critical Value		-3.2138
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LMASSPIB)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/24/09 Time: 00:21
Sample(adjusted): 1974 2004
Included observations: 31 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LMASSPIB(-1)	-0.482378	0.167809	-2.874563	0.0078
D(LMASSPIB(-1))	0.141219	0.186841	0.755826	0.4563
C	-0.678718	0.273269	-2.483697	0.0195
@TREND(1972)	0.004176	0.004226	0.988209	0.3318
R-squared	0.273452	Mean dependent var		0.015220
Adjusted R-squared	0.192725	S.D. dependent var		0.167963
S.E. of regression	0.150912	Akaike info criterion		-0.824326
Sum squared resid	0.614909	Schwarz criterion		-0.639296
Log likelihood	16.77706	F-statistic		3.387346
Durbin-Watson stat	2.044930	Prob(F-statistic)		0.032389

LQMMASS

ADF Test Statistic	-3.022277	1% Critical Value*		-4.2826
		5% Critical Value		-3.5614
		10% Critical Value		-3.2138
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LQMMASS)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/24/09 Time: 00:22
Sample(adjusted): 1974 2004
Included observations: 31 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LQMMASS(-1)	-0.595262	0.196958	-3.022277	0.0054
D(LQMMASS(-1))	0.063636	0.166993	0.381073	0.7061
C	-1.093563	0.383094	-2.854555	0.0082
@TREND(1972)	0.014100	0.006195	2.276122	0.0310
R-squared	0.283340	Mean dependent var		0.022012
Adjusted R-squared	0.203711	S.D. dependent var		0.203331
S.E. of regression	0.181443	Akaike info criterion		-0.455838
Sum squared resid	0.888881	Schwarz criterion		-0.270807
Log likelihood	11.06548	F-statistic		3.558253
Durbin-Watson stat	1.883245	Prob(F-statistic)		0.027305

LTCREE

ADF Test Statistic	-2.079190	1% Critical Value*		-4.2826
		5% Critical Value		-3.5614
		10% Critical Value		-3.2138
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LTCREE)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/24/09 Time: 00:23
Sample(adjusted): 1974 2004
Included observations: 31 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LTCREE(-1)	-0.201851	0.097082	-2.079190	0.0472
D(LTCREE(-1))	0.020602	0.180562	0.114101	0.9100
C	5.023231	2.337944	2.148568	0.0408
@TREND(1972)	0.009569	0.007860	1.217500	0.2339
R-squared	0.148861	Mean dependent var		0.110185
Adjusted R-squared	0.054290	S.D. dependent var		0.253051
S.E. of regression	0.246086	Akaike info criterion		0.153644
Sum squared resid	1.635076	Schwarz criterion		0.338674
Log likelihood	1.618525	F-statistic		1.574061
Durbin-Watson stat	2.011017	Prob(F-statistic)		0.218608

LCRIHAB

ADF Test Statistic	-2.244769	1% Critical Value*		-4.2826
		5% Critical Value		-3.5614
		10% Critical Value		-3.2138
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LCRIHAB)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/24/09 Time: 00:25
Sample(adjusted): 1974 2004
Included observations: 31 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LCRIHAB(-1)	-0.231793	0.103259	-2.244769	0.0332
D(LCRIHAB(-1))	-0.163596	0.182400	-0.896905	0.3777
C	2.305315	0.944064	2.441907	0.0214
@TREND(1972)	0.001787	0.006943	0.257376	0.7988
R-squared	0.210133	Mean dependent var		0.077345
Adjusted R-squared	0.122371	S.D. dependent var		0.303776
S.E. of regression	0.284583	Akaike info criterion		0.444328
Sum squared resid	2.186656	Schwarz criterion		0.629358
Log likelihood	-2.887081	F-statistic		2.394330
Durbin-Watson stat	1.905605	Prob(F-statistic)		0.090339

LDEPIB

ADF Test Statistic	-3.794034	1% Critical Value*		-4.2826
		5% Critical Value		-3.5614
		10% Critical Value		-3.2138
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LDEPIB)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/24/09 Time: 00:36
Sample(adjusted): 1974 2004
Included observations: 31 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LDEPIB(-1)	-0.538911	0.142042	-3.794034	0.0008
D(LDEPIB(-1))	0.210254	0.165174	1.272927	0.2139
C	-0.729893	0.233062	-3.131753	0.0041
@TREND(1972)	-0.001239	0.003933	-0.314921	0.7552
R-squared	0.375960	Mean dependent var		0.021010
Adjusted R-squared	0.306623	S.D. dependent var		0.225082
S.E. of regression	0.187424	Akaike info criterion		-0.390975
Sum squared resid	0.948447	Schwarz criterion		-0.205944
Log likelihood	10.06011	F-statistic		5.422162
Durbin-Watson stat	2.120786	Prob(F-statistic)		0.004736

LDATER

ADF Test Statistic	-3.660331	1% Critical Value*		-4.2826
		5% Critical Value		-3.5614
		10% Critical Value		-3.2138
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LDATER)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/24/09 Time: 00:37
Sample(adjusted): 1974 2004
Included observations: 31 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LDATER(-1)	-0.424128	0.115871	-3.660331	0.0011
D(LDATER(-1))	0.141249	0.158391	0.891771	0.3804
C	9.968622	2.662361	3.744279	0.0009
@TREND(1972)	0.034606	0.011774	2.939186	0.0067
R-squared	0.378630	Mean dependent var		0.116407
Adjusted R-squared	0.309589	S.D. dependent var		0.216170
S.E. of regression	0.179618	Akaike info criterion		-0.476057
Sum squared resid	0.871089	Schwarz criterion		-0.291026
Log likelihood	11.37888	F-statistic		5.484127
Durbin-Watson stat	2.089774	Prob(F-statistic)		0.004483

ADF EN DIFFERENCE PREMIERE

LPIBPOP

ADF Test Statistic	-2.260461	1% Critical Value*		-4.2949
		5% Critical Value		-3.5670
		10% Critical Value		-3.2169
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LPIBPOP,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/24/09 Time: 22:48
Sample(adjusted): 1975 2004
Included observations: 30 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LPIBPOP(-1))	-0.472233	0.208910	-2.260461	0.0324
D(LPIBPOP(-1),2)	-0.230942	0.183990	-1.255192	0.2206
C	0.003908	0.002987	1.308529	0.2021
@TREND(1972)	-5.86E-05	0.000131	-0.448182	0.6577
R-squared	0.345137	Mean dependent var		-3.85E-05
Adjusted R-squared	0.269576	S.D. dependent var		0.007150
S.E. of regression	0.006110	Akaike info criterion		-7.234076
Sum squared resid	0.000971	Schwarz criterion		-7.047249
Log likelihood	112.5111	F-statistic		4.567650
Durbin-Watson stat	1.956825	Prob(F-statistic)		0.010655

LINVPIB

ADF Test Statistic	0.301413	1% Critical Value*		-4.2949
		5% Critical Value		-3.5670
		10% Critical Value		-3.2169
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LINVPIB,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/24/09 Time: 22:46
Sample(adjusted): 1975 2004
Included observations: 30 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LINVPIB(-1))	0.790700	2.623313	0.301413	0.7655
D(LINVPIB(-1),2)	-0.453256	1.668681	-0.271625	0.7881
C	0.021389	0.021243	1.006904	0.3233
@TREND(1972)	-0.001777	0.001089	-1.631299	0.1149
R-squared	0.093724	Mean dependent var		-0.009704
Adjusted R-squared	-0.010847	S.D. dependent var		0.051122
S.E. of regression	0.051398	Akaike info criterion		-2.974865
Sum squared resid	0.068686	Schwarz criterion		-2.788038
Log likelihood	48.62297	F-statistic		0.896275
Durbin-Watson stat	1.164882	Prob(F-statistic)		0.456313

LDG

ADF Test Statistic	-1.852604	1% Critical Value*		-4.2949
		5% Critical Value		-3.5670
		10% Critical Value		-3.2169
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LDG,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/24/09 Time: 22:44
Sample(adjusted): 1975 2004
Included observations: 30 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LDG(-1))	-0.438929	0.236926	-1.852604	0.0753
D(LDG(-1),2)	-0.172214	0.230407	-0.747434	0.4615
C	0.018225	0.061076	0.298391	0.7678
@TREND(1972)	0.002258	0.002833	0.796910	0.4327
R-squared	0.239130	Mean dependent var		0.012359
Adjusted R-squared	0.151338	S.D. dependent var		0.145570
S.E. of regression	0.134103	Akaike info criterion		-1.056849
Sum squared resid	0.467575	Schwarz criterion		-0.870023
Log likelihood	19.85274	F-statistic		2.723810
Durbin-Watson stat	1.744560	Prob(F-statistic)		0.064715

LDEF

ADF Test Statistic	-2.988837	1% Critical Value*		-4.2949
		5% Critical Value		-3.5670
		10% Critical Value		-3.2169
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LDEF,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/24/09 Time: 22:45
Sample(adjusted): 1975 2004
Included observations: 30 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LDEF(-1))	-0.638360	0.213582	-2.988837	0.0060
D(LDEF(-1),2)	0.008270	0.191959	0.043083	0.9660
C	0.068548	0.032594	2.103075	0.0453
@TREND(1972)	-0.001727	0.001402	-1.231932	0.2290
R-squared	0.326965	Mean dependent var		-0.000731
Adjusted R-squared	0.249307	S.D. dependent var		0.074393
S.E. of regression	0.064456	Akaike info criterion		-2.522095
Sum squared resid	0.108020	Schwarz criterion		-2.335269
Log likelihood	41.83143	F-statistic		4.210329
Durbin-Watson stat	1.906653	Prob(F-statistic)		0.014875

LMASSPIB

ADF Test Statistic	-3.577548	1% Critical Value*		-4.2949
		5% Critical Value		-3.5670
		10% Critical Value		-3.2169
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LMASSPIB,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/24/09 Time: 23:04
Sample(adjusted): 1975 2004
Included observations: 30 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LMASSPIB(-1))	-1.042566	0.291419	-3.577548	0.0014
D(LMASSPIB(-1),2)	-0.027010	0.200179	-0.134930	0.8937
C	0.080175	0.075503	1.061878	0.2981
@TREND(1972)	-0.003841	0.003800	-1.010881	0.3214
R-squared	0.526393	Mean dependent var		-0.010898
Adjusted R-squared	0.471746	S.D. dependent var		0.241502
S.E. of regression	0.175526	Akaike info criterion		-0.518492
Sum squared resid	0.801045	Schwarz criterion		-0.331666
Log likelihood	11.77739	F-statistic		9.632610
Durbin-Watson stat	1.795760	Prob(F-statistic)		0.000189

LQMMASS

ADF Test Statistic	-4.354533	1% Critical Value*		-4.2949
		5% Critical Value		-3.5670
		10% Critical Value		-3.2169
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LQMMASS,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/24/09 Time: 23:06
Sample(adjusted): 1975 2004
Included observations: 30 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LQMMASS(-1))	-1.269110	0.291446	-4.354533	0.0002
D(LQMMASS(-1),2)	0.088642	0.175157	0.506069	0.6171
C	0.061537	0.091245	0.674418	0.5060
@TREND(1972)	-0.001635	0.004599	-0.355534	0.7251
R-squared	0.579643	Mean dependent var		0.011245
Adjusted R-squared	0.531141	S.D. dependent var		0.310519
S.E. of regression	0.212623	Akaike info criterion		-0.135029
Sum squared resid	1.175419	Schwarz criterion		0.051797
Log likelihood	6.025432	F-statistic		11.95074
Durbin-Watson stat	1.980803	Prob(F-statistic)		0.000042

LTCREE

ADF Test Statistic	-3.484845	1% Critical Value*		-4.2949
		5% Critical Value		-3.5670
		10% Critical Value		-3.2169
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LTCREE,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/24/09 Time: 23:06
Sample(adjusted): 1975 2004
Included observations: 30 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LTCREE(-1))	-0.988012	0.283517	-3.484845	0.0018
D(LTCREE(-1),2)	-0.048381	0.198101	-0.244223	0.8090
C	0.141591	0.121908	1.161458	0.2560
@TREND(1972)	-0.002140	0.005788	-0.369727	0.7146
R-squared	0.521891	Mean dependent var		-0.005785
Adjusted R-squared	0.466724	S.D. dependent var		0.368287
S.E. of regression	0.268944	Akaike info criterion		0.334940
Sum squared resid	1.880605	Schwarz criterion		0.521766
Log likelihood	-1.024097	F-statistic		9.460287
Durbin-Watson stat	1.941580	Prob(F-statistic)		0.000213

LDEPIB

ADF Test Statistic	-3.879867	1% Critical Value*		-4.2949
		5% Critical Value		-3.5670
		10% Critical Value		-3.2169
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LDEPIB,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/24/09 Time: 23:07
Sample(adjusted): 1975 2004
Included observations: 30 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LDEPIB(-1))	-1.047348	0.269944	-3.879867	0.0006
D(LDEPIB(-1),2)	0.068117	0.187877	0.362560	0.7199
C	0.069771	0.097623	0.714702	0.4812
@TREND(1972)	-0.003394	0.004946	-0.686220	0.4986
R-squared	0.504951	Mean dependent var		-0.017461
Adjusted R-squared	0.447830	S.D. dependent var		0.308180
S.E. of regression	0.229003	Akaike info criterion		0.013400
Sum squared resid	1.363499	Schwarz criterion		0.200226
Log likelihood	3.798998	F-statistic		8.840013
Durbin-Watson stat	2.022549	Prob(F-statistic)		0.000330

LCRIHAB

ADF Test Statistic	-3.508661	1% Critical Value*		-4.2949
		5% Critical Value		-3.5670
		10% Critical Value		-3.2169
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LCRIHAB,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/24/09 Time: 23:08
Sample(adjusted): 1975 2004
Included observations: 30 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LCRIHAB(-1))	-1.242612	0.354156	-3.508661	0.0017
D(LCRIHAB(-1),2)	0.017761	0.222455	0.079841	0.9370
C	0.209069	0.153276	1.363999	0.1843
@TREND(1972)	-0.006740	0.007478	-0.901375	0.3757
R-squared	0.588293	Mean dependent var		0.011014
Adjusted R-squared	0.540789	S.D. dependent var		0.466116
S.E. of regression	0.315864	Akaike info criterion		0.656559
Sum squared resid	2.594029	Schwarz criterion		0.843385
Log likelihood	-5.848379	F-statistic		12.38391
Durbin-Watson stat	1.882771	Prob(F-statistic)		0.000032

RESULTATS DE L'ESTIMATION DU MODELE

Dependent Variable: LPIBPOP
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/25/09 Time: 11:15
Sample: 1972 2004
Included observations: 33
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
C	0.678344	0.131502	5.158429	0.0000
LINVPIB	0.023258	0.011380	2.043667	0.0526
LDG	-0.004582	0.004613	-0.993193	0.3310
LDEF	0.001563	0.009811	0.159286	0.8748
LMASSPIB	-0.011715	0.006015	-1.947440	0.0638
LQMMASS	-0.003668	0.002368	-1.549058	0.1350
LTCREE	0.007728	0.001611	4.797979	0.0001
LDEPIB	-0.063422	0.010042	-6.315572	0.0000
LDATER	0.061597	0.009944	6.194486	0.0000
LCRIHAB	0.004448	0.001548	2.873925	0.0086
R-squared	0.998489	Mean dependent var		2.439386
Adjusted R-squared	0.997898	S.D. dependent var		0.055436
S.E. of regression	0.002542	Akaike info criterion		-8.866970
Sum squared resid	0.000149	Schwarz criterion		-8.413482
Log likelihood	156.3050	F-statistic		1688.911
Durbin-Watson stat	1.750455	Prob(F-statistic)		0.000000

TEST DE CAUSALITE

Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
Date: 03/25/09 Time: 11:26
Sample: 1972 2004
Lags: 1
Null Hypothesis:	Obs	F-Statistic	Probability
LMASSPIB does not Granger Cause LPIBPOP	32	12.3270	0.00148
LPIBPOP does not Granger Cause LMASSPIB		0.04426	0.83485
LQMMASS does not Granger Cause LPIBPOP	32	1.15441	0.29149
LPIBPOP does not Granger Cause LQMMASS		4.74308	0.03769
LTCREE does not Granger Cause LPIBPOP	32	1.34736	0.25521
LPIBPOP does not Granger Cause LTCREE		2.25387	0.14409
LDEPIB does not Granger Cause LPIBPOP	32	6.59402	0.01565
LPIBPOP does not Granger Cause LDEPIB		0.14902	0.70229
LDATER does not Granger Cause LPIBPOP	32	7.53934	0.01026
LPIBPOP does not Granger Cause LDATER		0.92335	0.34454
LCRIHAB does not Granger Cause LPIBPOP	32	0.00812	0.92882
LPIBPOP does not Granger Cause LCRIHAB		0.93324	0.34201
LQMMASS does not Granger Cause LMASSPIB	32	0.35244	0.55734
LMASSPIB does not Granger Cause LQMMASS		2.30995	0.13938
LTCREE does not Granger Cause LMASSPIB	32	0.05198	0.82125
LMASSPIB does not Granger Cause LTCREE		0.14208	0.70897
LDEPIB does not Granger Cause LMASSPIB	32	1.39939	0.24643
LMASSPIB does not Granger Cause LDEPIB		0.98505	0.32917
LDATER does not Granger Cause LMASSPIB	32	0.01468	0.90441
LMASSPIB does not Granger Cause LDATER		0.27856	0.60166
LCRIHAB does not Granger Cause LMASSPIB	32	0.29780	0.58944
LMASSPIB does not Granger Cause LCRIHAB		4.99715	0.03325
LTCREE does not Granger Cause LQMMASS	32	1.01114	0.32295
LQMMASS does not Granger Cause LTCREE		0.18577	0.66965
LDEPIB does not Granger Cause LQMMASS	32	1.48432	0.23292
LQMMASS does not Granger Cause LDEPIB		0.14946	0.70187
LDATER does not Granger Cause LQMMASS	32	7.14035	0.01224
LQMMASS does not Granger Cause LDATER		0.15395	0.69766
LCRIHAB does not Granger Cause LQMMASS	32	1.50753	0.22939
LQMMASS does not Granger Cause LCRIHAB		0.01640	0.89899
LDEPIB does not Granger Cause LTCREE	32	2.15525	0.15285
LTCREE does not Granger Cause LDEPIB		0.03424	0.85449
LDATER does not Granger Cause LTCREE	32	0.23422	0.63205
LTCREE does not Granger Cause LDATER		0.05304	0.81947
LCRIHAB does not Granger Cause LTCREE	32	1.82497	0.18717
LTCREE does not Granger Cause LCRIHAB		18.6451	0.00017
LDATER does not Granger Cause LDEPIB	32	0.11241	0.73983
LDEPIB does not Granger Cause LDATER		1.72647	0.19916
LCRIHAB does not Granger Cause LDEPIB	32	0.14580	0.70536
LDEPIB does not Granger Cause LCRIHAB		7.96385	0.00853
LCRIHAB does not Granger Cause LDATER	32	0.28027	0.60056
LDATER does not Granger Cause LCRIHAB		2.97042	0.09545

Test de cointégration de Johansen

	Likelihood	5 Percent	1 Percent	Hypothesized
Eigenvalue	Ratio	Critical Value	Critical Value	No. of CE(s)
0.617058	95.09735	82.49	90.45	None **
0.581814	65.34132	59.46	66.52	At most 1 *
0.376497	38.31462	39.89	45.58	At most 2
0.320253	23.67017	24.31	29.75	At most 3
0.225119	11.70309	12.53	16.31	At most 4
0.115271	3.796686	3.84	6.51	At most 5
*(**) denotes rejection of the hypothesis at 5%(1%) significance level
L.R. test indicates 2 cointegrating equation(s) at 5% significance level
Unnormalized Cointegrating Coefficients:
LPIBPOP	LDG	LMASSPIB	LQMMASS	LTCREE	LCRIHAB
5.202475	-0.298292	0.580178	0.372851	-0.273745	0.303217
7.828547	-0.489133	0.102634	0.338387	-0.173234	-0.193397
4.322623	-0.179961	-0.619065	0.642651	-0.414766	0.441722
-5.906475	-0.077584	-0.783691	0.977373	0.946182	-0.723452
-5.592936	0.414054	-0.518004	-0.344179	0.014407	0.211385
2.639621	-0.606642	0.023368	0.270093	0.330401	0.070590
Normalized Cointegrating Coefficients: 1 Cointegrating Equation(s)
LPIBPOP	LDG	LMASSPIB	LQMMASS	LTCREE	LCRIHAB
1.000000	-0.057337	0.111520	0.071668	-0.052618	0.058283
	(0.01710)	(0.03755)	(0.03971)	(0.02424)	(0.02577)
Log likelihood	211.1624
Normalized Cointegrating Coefficients: 2 Cointegrating Equation(s)
LPIBPOP	LDG	LMASSPIB	LQMMASS	LTCREE	LCRIHAB
1.000000	0.000000	1.208410	0.388703	-0.392463	0.983274
		(4.69575)	(1.79645)	(1.14832)	(3.84380)
0.000000	1.000000	19.13070	5.529354	-5.927189	16.13263
		(77.2471)	(29.5524)	(18.8904)	(63.2322)
Log likelihood	224.6758
Normalized Cointegrating Coefficients: 3 Cointegrating Equation(s)
LPIBPOP	LDG	LMASSPIB	LQMMASS	LTCREE	LCRIHAB
1.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.367304	-0.284179	0.527384
			(0.74485)	(0.31889)	(0.90966)
0.000000	1.000000	0.000000	5.190593	-4.212912	8.915296
			(12.7583)	(5.46222)	(15.5812)
0.000000	0.000000	1.000000	0.017708	-0.089609	0.377265
			(1.06554)	(0.45619)	(1.30131)
Log likelihood	231.9980
Normalized Cointegrating Coefficients: 4 Cointegrating Equation(s)
LPIBPOP	LDG	LMASSPIB	LQMMASS	LTCREE	LCRIHAB
1.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	-0.167766	0.179103
				(0.03421)	(0.08624)
0.000000	1.000000	0.000000	0.000000	-2.567802	3.993540
				(0.77539)	(1.95493)
0.000000	0.000000	1.000000	0.000000	-0.083996	0.360474
				(0.16864)	(0.42519)
0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	1.000000	-0.316941	0.948207
				(0.26445)	(0.66673)
Log likelihood	237.9816
Normalized Cointegrating Coefficients: 5 Cointegrating Equation(s)
LPIBPOP	LDG	LMASSPIB	LQMMASS	LTCREE	LCRIHAB
1.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	-0.738367
					(9.46048)
0.000000	1.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	-10.04915
					(144.995)
0.000000	0.000000	1.000000	0.000000	0.000000	-0.098882
					(4.66249)
0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	1.000000	0.000000	-0.785065
					(17.9032)
0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	1.000000	-5.468759
					(56.2562)
Log likelihood	241.9348

Estimation du modèle à correction d'erreur

Dependent Variable: D(LPIBPOP)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/13/09 Time: 00:29
Sample(adjusted): 1973 2004
Included observations: 32 after adjusting endpoints
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
C	0.142471	0.163356	0.872145	0.3935
D(LDG)	0.018000	0.009231	1.950085	0.0653
D(LMASSPIB)	-0.006144	0.008011	-0.766946	0.4521
D(LQMMASS)	-0.003084	0.006135	-0.502668	0.6207
D(LTCREE)	0.003222	0.005116	0.629825	0.5359
D(LCRIHAB)	4.79E-05	0.006047	0.007926	0.9938
LPIBPOP(-1)	-0.007745	0.161778	-0.047873	0.9623
LDG(-1)	-0.004156	0.007720	-0.538272	0.5963
LMASSPIB(-1)	0.011193	0.006168	1.814640	0.0846
LQMMASS(-1)	0.005294	0.006831	0.774987	0.4474
LTCREE(-1)	0.000971	0.005907	0.164443	0.8710
LCRIHAB(-1)	-0.002070	0.004677	-0.442541	0.6628
R-squared	0.591393	Mean dependent var		0.005886
Adjusted R-squared	0.366658	S.D. dependent var		0.006494
S.E. of regression	0.005168	Akaike info criterion		-7.412615
Sum squared resid	0.000534	Schwarz criterion		-6.862964
Log likelihood	130.6018	F-statistic		2.631521
Durbin-Watson stat	2.394463	Prob(F-statistic)		0.028995

Estimation de l'équation de long terme

Dependent Variable: LPIBPOP
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/13/09 Time: 00:17
Sample: 1972 2004
Included observations: 33
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
C	1.046551	0.078563	13.32123	0.0000
LDG	0.043335	0.003689	11.74558	0.0000
LMASSPIB	0.013745	0.008318	1.652405	0.1100
LQMMASS	-0.002038	0.007745	-0.263161	0.7944
LTCREE	0.014051	0.005077	2.767786	0.0101
LCRIHAB	-0.000993	0.004339	-0.228781	0.8208
R-squared	0.979488	Mean dependent var		2.439386
Adjusted R-squared	0.975689	S.D. dependent var		0.055436
S.E. of regression	0.008644	Akaike info criterion		-6.501037
Sum squared resid	0.002017	Schwarz criterion		-6.228945
Log likelihood	113.2671	F-statistic		257.8552
Durbin-Watson stat	0.886712	Prob(F-statistic)		0.000000

Test de causalité de Granger

Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
Date: 05/13/09 Time: 10:30
Sample: 1972 2004
Lags: 1
Null Hypothesis:	Obs	F-Statistic	Probability
LMASSPIB does not Granger Cause LPIBPOP	32	12.3270	0.00148
LPIBPOP does not Granger Cause LMASSPIB		0.04426	0.83485
LQMMASS does not Granger Cause LPIBPOP	32	1.15441	0.29149
LPIBPOP does not Granger Cause LQMMASS		4.74308	0.03769
LTCREE does not Granger Cause LPIBPOP	32	1.34736	0.25521
LPIBPOP does not Granger Cause LTCREE		2.25387	0.14409
LCRIHAB does not Granger Cause LPIBPOP	32	0.00812	0.92882
LPIBPOP does not Granger Cause LCRIHAB		0.93324	0.34201
LQMMASS does not Granger Cause LMASSPIB	32	0.35244	0.55734
LMASSPIB does not Granger Cause LQMMASS		2.30995	0.13938
LTCREE does not Granger Cause LMASSPIB	32	0.05198	0.82125
LMASSPIB does not Granger Cause LTCREE		0.14208	0.70897
LCRIHAB does not Granger Cause LMASSPIB	32	0.29780	0.58944
LMASSPIB does not Granger Cause LCRIHAB		4.99715	0.03325
LTCREE does not Granger Cause LQMMASS	32	1.01114	0.32295
LQMMASS does not Granger Cause LTCREE		0.18577	0.66965
LCRIHAB does not Granger Cause LQMMASS	32	1.50753	0.22939
LQMMASS does not Granger Cause LCRIHAB		0.01640	0.89899
LCRIHAB does not Granger Cause LTCREE	32	1.82497	0.18717
LTCREE does not Granger Cause LCRIHAB		18.6451	0.00017

Les données

obs	LCRIHAB	LDG	LMASSPIB	LPIBPOP	LQMMASS	LTCREE
1972	7.9334012536	22.9182657193	-1.89207129043	2.34084667295	-2.45793553301	23.0669928733
1973	8.15961401464	22.9500492165	-1.83109286479	2.33865223779	-1.79378992678	23.2680124871
1974	8.29062594842	23.0746410941	-1.71966461774	2.34687712947	-1.91443249018	23.5235913142
1975	8.4593446301	23.1391796152	-1.25714756681	2.352557881	-1.85391539472	24.2026580662
1976	9.17797724734	23.1656128723	-1.47585987911	2.36724433215	-1.81254200841	24.1921218671
1977	9.16462299686	23.3185205439	-1.42367401145	2.37233046224	-1.83029313323	24.3502698873
1978	9.19496990565	23.3835253742	-1.45391947722	2.38308409865	-1.58463279352	24.5321480835
1979	9.41365323638	23.4511186653	-1.50772534681	2.38958365283	-1.76130026174	24.8744632108
1980	9.54224620124	23.5797360432	-1.22953484238	2.39915659334	-1.3449839661	25.1659170934
1981	9.9126962507	23.7289484414	-1.20609144919	2.41305051751	-1.61528743722	25.1891739556
1982	9.86421343762	23.9697568288	-1.10428491328	2.42507568148	-1.88139702442	25.558753778
1983	10.3605261624	24.1921218671	-1.28607524496	2.43712531137	-1.8666607774	25.6128628027
1984	10.4645436911	24.500613939	-1.32707572088	2.44942848108	-1.65579004208	25.4842424741
1985	10.4237604147	24.8209381893	-1.31798597644	2.44673349801	-1.51520338709	25.7029607081
1986	10.5343513034	24.8600311151	-1.43632712706	2.45229314344	-1.28421912615	25.3053720833
1987	10.1460324865	25.0027058828	-1.57998239997	2.45158923646	-1.01825974366	25.2667733625
1988	10.1170125743	24.9802959814	-1.55418916823	2.44753001642	-1.32890889129	25.3881190251
1989	10.1436509578	25.0137252781	-1.50651653928	2.44605571855	-1.65952462652	25.0157779644
1990	9.61038601622	24.8774503995	-1.28143086336	2.44565321823	-1.51419552694	25.3492185621
1991	10.0801313084	24.6954427652	-1.17178926668	2.44219402361	-1.54359464985	25.1799360146
1992	9.68580954954	24.7378454307	-1.04754810419	2.44331476188	-1.30193651109	24.9631527045
1993	9.61268535275	24.7698197353	-1.13355537149	2.44535908672	-1.05671232905	24.9383520169
1994	9.28179394998	24.8357777031	-0.81501750518	2.4490316817	-1.33945010879	25.0407539505
1995	9.80620555983	24.8455497679	-0.87802233057	2.4505483954	-1.05787104024	25.1102800131
1996	9.97260180534	25.1552724039	-1.08784019169	2.47655666555	-1.12943975246	25.3521525496
1997	9.98488193584	25.4506536557	-1.22758266997	2.48978021526	-1.07901044443	24.9957565846
1998	9.68561797002	25.5190563825	-1.38629436112	2.49768149541	-1.05565452343	25.3294355233
1999	9.67502259897	25.5752961009	-1.19659269703	2.5044455521	-1.2399774062	25.906340688
2000	9.85519566588	25.5830782413	-1.05605267425	2.50972110651	-1.43233829962	26.063924044
2001	10.0846259054	25.7136984237	-1.0040444994	2.51484383316	-1.37045317519	26.1000246298
2002	9.70463988256	25.9490125107	-1.16818207898	2.52009158308	-1.32320515181	26.3184975273
2003	10.0958578916	26.0315335343	-1.14375394433	2.52212023697	-1.3281343647	26.601717314
2004	10.5573027741	26.5268936466	-1.35927113982	2.52919004036	-1.11142784252	26.6837443124