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Economie et Finance

Développement financier et croissance économique dans les pays de la zone franc

( Télécharger le fichier original )
par Edem Kwami ABBUY
Université de Lomé - Togo - Master en économie internationale 2012

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ANNEXES ANNEXE 1

Table des matières

SIGLES ET ABREVIATIONS v

RESUME vi

INTRODUCTION GENERALE 1

PREMIERE PARTIE : DYNAMIQUE DE L'INTERACTION ENTRE DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE 6

CHAPITRE I : INTERACTION ENTRE DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE 7

SECTION 1 : CADRE CONCEPTUEL ET FONDEMENT DU LIEN ENTRE DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE 7

SECTION 2 : THEORIE DE LA LIBERALISATION FINANCIERE DANS LA RELATION ENTRE DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET

CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE 24

CHAPITRE II : LES DETERMINANTS DU DEVELOPPEMNT FINANCIER ET LA PRESENTATION DU SECTEUR FINANCIER DE

LA ZONE FRANC 25

SECTION 1 : LES DETERMINANTS DU DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER 32

SECTION 2 : PRESENTATION DU SECTEUR FINANCIER DE LA ZONE FRANC 38

DEUXIEME PARTIE : INTERACTION EMPIRIQUE ENTRE DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE

ECONOMIQUE 52

CHAPITRE III : PERFORMANCES ECONOMIQUES DES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC 53

SECTION 1 : LES PERFORMANCES ECONOMIQUES DE L'UEMOA 53

SECTION 2 : LES PERFORMANCES ECONOMIQUES DE LA CEMAC 55

CHAPITRE IV : EVALUATION EMPIRIQUE DE L'IMPACT DU DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER SUR LA CROISSANCE

EONOMIQUE 58

SECTION 1 : METHODOLOGIE D'ESTIMATION ET PRESENTATION DES VARIABLES 58

SECTION 2 : TESTS ECONOMETRIQUES ET RESULTATS 67

CONCLUSION 74

BIBLIOGRAPHIE 76

ANNEXE 78

DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE DANS LES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC.

ANNEXE 2 : Test de racines unitaires

VARIABLES	ZONE FRANC	UEMOA	CEMAC
LPIB	-0,4721 (0,3184)	-1,5601 (0,0594)**	-0,325 (0,3726)

L M2	-3,8592 (0,0001)*	-3,6736 (0,0001)*	-5,8198 (0,000)*

LCRD	-2,2951 (0,0109)*	-3,1711 (0,0008)*	-1,5743 (0,057)**

LINV	-1,31 (0,0951)***	-0,8219 (0,2056)	-2,4046 (0,0081)*

LOUV	-1,0402 (0,1491)	-0,8205 (0,206)	-0,4282 (0,3343)

LGOV	-4,8152 (0,000)*	-3,6593 (0,0001)*	-2,5747 (0,005)*

( )*, ( ) **, ( ) *** sont les significativités à 1%, 5%, 10%

Les valeurs reportées de ce tableau sont celles de la statistique t_g* (adjusted t*) et les valeurs entre parenthèses sont les p-values associées.

DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE DANS LES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC.

^{Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root test for lpib}

^{Ho: Panels contain unit roots Number of panels} = ¹¹

^{Ha: Panels are stationary Number of periods} = ⁴¹

^{AR parameter: Common Asymptotics: root(N)/T} -> ⁰

^{Panel means: Not included}

^{Time trend: Not included Cross-sectional means
removed}

^{ADF regressions: 1.64 lags average (chosen by
AIC)}

^{LR variance: Bartlett kernel, 11.00 lags average (chosen
by LLC)}

^{Statistic p-value}

^{Unadjusted t -0.4778 0.3164}

^{Adjusted t* -0.4721 0.3184}

. ^{xtunitroot llc lm2, demean nocons lags(aic 10)}

^{Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root test for lm2}

^{Ho: Panels contain unit roots Number of panels} = ¹¹

^{Ha: Panels are stationary Number of periods} = ⁴¹

^{AR parameter: Common Asymptotics: root(N)/T} -> ⁰

^{Panel means: Not included}

^{Time trend: Not included Cross-sectional means
removed}

^{ADF regressions: 2.27 lags average (chosen by
AIC)}

^{LR variance: Bartlett kernel, 11.00 lags average (chosen
by LLC)}

^{Statistic p-value}

^{Unadjusted t -3.9406 0.0000}

^{Adjusted t* -3.8592 0.0001}

. ^{xtunitroot llc lcrd, demean nocons lags(aic 10)}

^{Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root test for lcrd}

^{Ho: Panels contain unit roots Number of panels} = ¹¹

^{Ha: Panels are stationary Number of periods} = ⁴¹

^{AR parameter: Common Asymptotics: root(N)/T} -> ⁰

^{Panel means: Not included}

^{Time trend: Not included Cross-sectional means
removed}

^{ADF regressions: 2.73 lags average (chosen by
AIC)}

^{LR variance: Bartlett kernel, 11.00 lags average (chosen
by LLC)}

^{Statistic p-value}

^{Unadjusted t -2.3408 0.0096}

^{Adjusted t* -2.2951 0.0109}

DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE DANS LES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC.

^{Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root test for linv}

^{Ho: Panels contain unit roots Number of panels} = ¹¹

^{Ha: Panels are stationary Number of periods} = ⁴¹

^{AR parameter: Common Asymptotics: root(N)/T} -> ⁰

^{Panel means: Not included}

^{Time trend: Not included Cross-sectional means
removed}

^{ADF regressions: 1.45 lags average (chosen by
AIC)}

^{LR variance: Bartlett kernel, 11.00 lags average (chosen
by LLC)}

^{Statistic p-value}

^{Unadjusted t -1.3365 0.0907}

^{Adjusted t* -1.3100 0.0951}

. ^{xtunitroot llc louv, demean nocons lags(aic 10)}

^{Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root test for louv}

^{Ho: Panels contain unit roots Number of panels} = ¹¹

^{Ha: Panels are stationary Number of periods} = ⁴¹

^{AR parameter: Common Asymptotics: root(N)/T} -> ⁰

^{Panel means: Not included}

^{Time trend: Not included Cross-sectional means
removed}

^{ADF regressions: 5.00 lags average (chosen by
AIC)}

^{LR variance: Bartlett kernel, 11.00 lags average (chosen
by LLC)}

^{Statistic p-value}

^{Unadjusted t -1.0658 0.1433}

^{Adjusted t* -1.0402 0.1491}

. ^{xtunitroot llc lgov, demean nocons lags(aic 10)}

^{Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root test for lgov}

^{Ho: Panels contain unit roots Number of panels} = ¹¹

^{Ha: Panels are stationary Number of periods} = ⁴¹

^{AR parameter: Common Asymptotics: root(N)/T} -> ⁰

^{Panel means: Not included}

^{Time trend: Not included Cross-sectional means
removed}

^{ADF regressions: 0.09 lags average (chosen by
AIC)}

^{LR variance: Bartlett kernel, 11.00 lags average (chosen
by LLC)}

^{Statistic p-value}

^{Unadjusted t -4.9025 0.0000}

^{Adjusted t* -4.8152 0.0000}

DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE DANS LES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC.

^{Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root test for linv}

^{Ho: Panels contain unit roots Number of panels} = ¹¹

^{Ha: Panels are stationary Number of periods} = ⁴¹

^{AR parameter: Common Asymptotics: root(N)/T} -> ⁰

^{Panel means: Not included}

^{Time trend: Not included Cross-sectional means
removed}

^{ADF regressions: 1.45 lags average (chosen by
AIC)}

^{LR variance: Bartlett kernel, 11.00 lags average (chosen
by LLC)}

^{Statistic p-value}

^{Unadjusted t -1.3365 0.0907}

^{Adjusted t* -1.3100 0.0951}

. ^{xtunitroot llc louv, demean nocons lags(aic 10)}

^{Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root test for louv}

^{Ho: Panels contain unit roots Number of panels} = ¹¹

^{Ha: Panels are stationary Number of periods} = ⁴¹

^{AR parameter: Common Asymptotics: root(N)/T} -> ⁰

^{Panel means: Not included}

^{Time trend: Not included Cross-sectional means
removed}

^{ADF regressions: 5.00 lags average (chosen by
AIC)}

^{LR variance: Bartlett kernel, 11.00 lags average (chosen
by LLC)}

^{Statistic p-value}

^{Unadjusted t -1.0658 0.1433}

^{Adjusted t* -1.0402 0.1491}

. ^{xtunitroot llc lgov, demean nocons lags(aic 10)}

^{Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root test for lgov}

^{Ho: Panels contain unit roots Number of panels} = ¹¹

^{Ha: Panels are stationary Number of periods} = ⁴¹

^{AR parameter: Common Asymptotics: root(N)/T} -> ⁰

^{Panel means: Not included}

^{Time trend: Not included Cross-sectional means
removed}

^{ADF regressions: 0.09 lags average (chosen by
AIC)}

^{LR variance: Bartlett kernel, 11.00 lags average (chosen
by LLC)}

^{Statistic p-value}

^{Unadjusted t -4.9025 0.0000}

^{Adjusted t* -4.8152 0.0000}

DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE DANS LES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC.

ANNEXE 3 : résultat du test de Hausman ^{Fixed-effects (within) regression} ^{Group variable: country}
			^t
^{R-sq: within} = ^0.9211	^between = ^0.9958 ^.9066214 ^.0510725 ^.012985 ^.0648817 ^-.0986149 ^.0058007 ^.216987	^.0162628 ^.035443 ^.0170063 ^.0180915 ^.0282122 ^.0030015 ^.0458935	^55.75 ^1.44 ^0.76 ^3.59 ^-3.50 ^1.93 ^4.73	^{Number of obs} = ^{Number of groups} = ^{Obs per group: min} = ^avg = ^{0.000 .8746556} ^{0.150 -.0185939} ^{0.446 -.0204425} ^{0.000 .0293212} ^{0.001 -.1540685} ^{0.054 -.000099} ^{0.000 .1267794}
^{corr(u_i, Xb)} = ^0.7091	^overall = ^0.9740 ^.34844947	^max = ^F(6,423) = ^Prob > ^F =

. ^{xtreg lpib L.lpib lm2 lcrd linv lgov louv,fe}

⁴⁴⁰ ¹¹ ⁴⁰ ^40.0 ⁴⁰ ^823.51 ^0.0000 ^Coef.

^{Std. Err.}

^{P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]}

^lpib

^L1.

^lm2 ^lcrd ^linv ^lgov ^louv ^_cons ^.9385873 ^.1207389 ^.0464124 ^.1004422 ^-.0431613 ^.0117004 ^.3071946 ^sigma_u ^sigma_e ^rho

^.04312707

^.05897313

^{(fraction of variance due to u_i)}

^{F test that all u_i=0: F(10, 423)} = ^4.10
Prob > ^F = ^0.0000

^lpib

. ^{est store eq1}

DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE DANS LES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC.

. ^{xtreg lpib L.lpib lm2 lcrd linv lgov louv,re}

^{Random-effects GLS regression} ^{Group variable: country}
			^z	^{Number of obs} = ^{Number of groups} =
^{R-sq: within} = ^0.9194 ^lpib	^between = ^0.9993 ^overall = ^0.9772 ^{Random effects u_i} ~ ^Gaussian ^{corr(u_i, X)} = ^{0 (assumed)} ^Coef. ^.9817565 ^-.0376679 ^.0277515 ^.0483098 ^-.046003 ^.0024803 ^.0770537	^{Std. Err.} ^.0079387 ^.0247989 ^.0150248 ^.0132164 ^.0230972 ^.0008104 ^.0349944	^123.67 ^-1.52 ^1.85 ^3.66 ^-1.99 ^3.06 ^2.20	^{Obs per group: min} = ^avg = ^max = ^{Wald chi2(6)} = ^Prob > ^chi2 = ^{P>\|z\| [95% Conf.} ^{0.000 .966197} ^{0.129 -.0862728} ^{0.065 -.0016965} ^{0.000 .022406} ^{0.046 -.0912727} ^{0.002 .000892} ^{0.028 .008466}
^lpib ^L1.	⁰

^lm2

^lcrd

^linv

^lgov

^louv

. ^{hausman eq1}

⁰

^.05897313

^{(fraction of variance due to u_i)}

^Coefficients

^_cons	^(b) ^eq1	^(B)	^(b-B) ^Difference
^sigma_u ^sigma_e	^.9066214	^.9817565	^-.0751351
^rho	^.0510725	^-.0376679	^.0887404
	^.012985	^.0277515	^-.0147665
	^.0648817	^.0483098	^.016572
	^-.0986149	^-.046003	^-.0526119
	^.0058007	^.0024803	^.0033204

⁴⁴⁰

¹¹

⁴⁰

^40.0

⁴⁰

^18594.83

^0.0000

^Interval]

^.9973161

^.010937 ^.0571994 ^.0742135 ^-.0007332

^.0040686

^.1456414

^{sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B))}

^S.E.

^.0141935

^.0253224

^.007967

^.0123543

^.0162002

^.00289

^b = ^{consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from
xtreg} .

^B = ^{inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho;
obtained from xtreg}

^L.lpib ^lm2 ^lcrd ^linv ^lgov ^louv

^{Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not
systematic}

^chi2(6) = ^{(b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)}

= ^45.42

^Prob>chi2 = ^0.0000

DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE DANS LES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC.

ANNEXE 4 : Résultats des estimations par la méthode des GMM ? Estimation sur la zone franc

^{Dynamic panel-data estimation, one-step system GMM}

^{Group variable: country} ^{Time variable} : ^annee
			^t	^P>\|t\|

	^.9485701	^.0161782	^58.63	^0.000	^.9125229
	^.0486601	^.026532	^1.83	^0.097	^{Number of obs} = ^-.0104569
	^.0290729	^.0213614	^1.36	^0.203	^{Number of groups} = ^-.0185234
^{Number of instruments} = ²⁸⁹	^.0615745	^.0200752	^3.07	^0.012	^{Obs per group: min} = ^.0168441
^{F(6, 10)} = ^2304.60	^-.0813891	^.0339691	^-2.40	^0.038	^avg = ^-.157077
^Prob > ^F = ^0.000	^.0027159	^.001104	^2.46	^0.034	^max = ^.000256
	^.0773605	^.0371605	^2.08	^0.064	^-.0054381

^lpib

^Coef.

^Robust

^{Std. Err.}

^lm2

^lcrd

^linv

^lgov

^louv

^_cons

^{Instruments for first differences equation}

⁵¹⁷ ¹¹ ⁴¹ ^47.00 ⁴⁹ ^{[95% Conf. Interval]} ^.9846174 ^.1077772 ^.0766692 ^.1063049 ^-.0057013 ^.0051759 ^.1601591 ^{GMM-type
(missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed)} ^lpib

^{L(1/.).L.lpib collapsed}

^L1.

^{L(2/.).(linv lgov louv lm2 lcrd) collapsed}

Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -3.05 Pr > z = 0.002 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -2.39 Pr > z = 0.127

Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(282) = 515.59 Prob > chi2 = 0.130

Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(282) = 8.48 Prob > chi2 = 1.000

DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE DANS LES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC.

? Estimation sur la zone UEMOA

^{Dynamic panel-data estimation, one-step system GMM}

^{Group variable: country} ^{Time variable} : ^annee
			^t	^P>\|t\|

	^.9291335	^.0202369	^45.91	^0.000	^.8796155
	^.0226078	^.0074977	^3.02	^0.024	^.0042617
	^.0527457	^.0176463	^2.99	^0.024	^.0095668
	^.0553913	^.0162018	^3.42	^0.014	^.0157469
	^-.0434095	^.0158731	^-2.73	^0.034	^-.0822496
	^.0024324	^.0008021	^3.03	^0.023	^.0004696
^{Number of instruments} = ²⁸⁹	^.0843157	^.0325549	^2.59	^0.041	^.0046566

^{F(6, 6)} = ^1510.29

^lpib

^Coef.

^Robust

^{Std. Err.}

^lpib

^L1.

^lm2

^lcrd

^lgov

^louv

^_cons

^{Instruments for first differences equation}

^Prob > ^F = ^0.000

^{Number of obs} = ³²⁶

^{Number of groups} = ⁷

^{Obs per group: min} = ⁴¹

^avg = ^46.57

^max = ⁴⁹

^{[95% Conf. Interval]} ^.9786514 ^.040954 ^.0959247 ^.0950358 ^-.0045694 ^.0043951 ^.1639747 ^{GMM-type (missing=0, separate
instruments for each period unless collapsed)} ^{L(1/.).L.lpib
collapsed}

^{L(2/.).(linv lgov louv lm2 lcrd) collapsed}

Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -2.37 Pr > z = 0.018

^linv

Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -1.77 Pr > z = 0.117

Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(282) = 380.49 Prob > chi2 = 0.137 Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(282) = 0.00 Prob > chi2 = 1.000

DEVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE DANS LES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC.

? Estimation sur la zone CEMAC

^{Dynamic panel-data estimation, one-step system GMM}

^{Group variable: country} ^{Time variable} : ^annee
			^t	^P>\|t\|

	^.9875604	^.006457	^152.94	^0.000	^.9670112
	^-.156668	^.1198078	^-1.31	^0.282	^-.5379498
	^-.0101583	^.0139245	^-0.73	^0.518	^-.0544722
	^-.0110672	^.0315614	^-0.35	^0.749	^-.1115096
	^-.1985735	^.0570818	^-3.48	^0.040	^-.3802334
	^.120104	^.033646	^3.57	^0.038	^.0130274
^{Number of instruments} = ¹⁹¹ ^{F(6, 3)} = ^3.85	^.5810444	^.2132261	^2.73	^0.072	^-.0975362

^Prob > ^F = ^0.148

^lpib

^Coef.

^Robust

^{Std. Err.}

^lpib

^L1.

^lgov

^louv

^_cons

^{Instruments for first differences equation}

^{Number of obs} = ¹⁹¹

^{Number of groups} = ⁴

^{Obs per group: min} = ⁴⁷

^avg = ^47.75

^max = ⁴⁸

^{[95% Conf. Interval]} ^1.00811 ^.2246138 ^.0341555 ^.0893752 ^-.0169136 ^.2271806 ^1.259625 ^{GMM-type
(missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed)} ^{L(1/.).(L.lpib linv lgov louv) collapsed}

^lm2

^lcrd

^linv

Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -1.95 Pr > z = 0.051 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -1.74 Pr > z = 0.121s

Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(184) = 236.71 Prob > chi2 = 0.105 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.)

Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(184) = 0.00 Prob > chi2 = 1.000

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