ANNEXES
ANNEXE 1 : Séries des variables
|
Année
|
PIB
|
INVP
|
INVG
|
INVG_EAU
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
|
1982
|
98277,7858
|
25417,6213
|
12246,2956
|
203,614002
|
0,023886959
|
|
1983
|
99638,1502
|
27431,3713
|
13179,091
|
241,155141
|
0,042344234
|
|
1984
|
101017,345
|
29604,6636
|
14182,9369
|
285,617891
|
0,075063308
|
|
1985
|
102415,63
|
31950,1384
|
15263,2455
|
338,278419
|
0,133064167
|
|
1986
|
103833,271
|
34481,437
|
16425,8406
|
400,648183
|
0,235881857
|
|
1987
|
105270,534
|
37213,2815
|
17676,9902
|
474,517312
|
0,418146013
|
|
1988
|
106727,693
|
40161,5607
|
19023,4393
|
562,005992
|
0,741244324
|
|
1989
|
108205,021
|
46612,3578
|
18399,6267
|
665,625315
|
1,313998295
|
|
1990
|
109702,798
|
50976,1022
|
18274,8203
|
788,349352
|
2,329314996
|
|
1991
|
110860,995
|
52073,0092
|
22927,0178
|
933,700517
|
4,129159353
|
|
1992
|
110550,351
|
45733,4235
|
27752,5678
|
1105,85067
|
7,319730047
|
|
1993
|
113369,21
|
53560,7938
|
31256,7734
|
1309,74083
|
12,97563096
|
|
1994
|
112071,698
|
53969,4395
|
32164,3006
|
1551,22306
|
23,00180441
|
|
1995
|
115166,326
|
65533,7988
|
27782,9367
|
1837,22834
|
40,77512745
|
|
1996
|
116394,503
|
70694,2059
|
26588,5894
|
2175,96558
|
72,28176489
|
|
1997
|
119203,038
|
74072,0417
|
30481,7141
|
2577,15717
|
128,1333465
|
|
1998
|
120008,069
|
72590,1763
|
40327,88
|
3052,31809
|
227,1410295
|
|
1999
|
122398,78
|
76362,3408
|
45024,5697
|
3615,08634
|
402,6512122
|
|
2000
|
124244,001
|
79731,1941
|
50759,7346
|
4281,61447
|
713,7768063
|
|
2001
|
127759,501
|
87372,9567
|
54862,1556
|
5071,03308
|
1265,306831
|
|
2002
|
129089,283
|
84173,3453
|
60337,5289
|
6006
|
2243
|
|
2003
|
129734,113
|
88126,1897
|
62165,1194
|
7465,153
|
1273
|
|
2004
|
129398,906
|
93136,2115
|
64669,663
|
6123,382
|
2317,727
|
|
2005
|
128719,858
|
99351,3033
|
67922,9237
|
10050,322
|
620,203
|
|
2006
|
129122,195
|
107597,462
|
73560,5264
|
13126,864
|
3599,649
|
|
2007
|
130590,631
|
96484,8774
|
89473,7971
|
30210,368
|
10658,15086
|
|
2008
|
132543,61
|
99030,1902
|
75956,9226
|
28278,9877
|
35575,524
|
|
2009
|
131475,103
|
101115,409
|
83370,931
|
36097,284
|
48895,495
|
|
2010
|
130254,369
|
107947,505
|
84958,2878
|
23603,367
|
37527,366
|
|
2011
|
130164,707
|
188697,312
|
90960,1834
|
19576,054
|
20727,5275
|
|
2012
|
132526,972
|
203647,146
|
97888,5834
|
16775,5289
|
19688,84843
|
|
2013
|
133379,218
|
219781,402
|
105344,717
|
19515,5361
|
21597,20439
|
ANNEXE 2 : Séries des variables (suite)
|
Année
|
CRED
|
TAXE
|
DET
|
CONSENERGIE
|
VENTE_EAU
|
SP
|
|
1982
|
77136,5463
|
10008,0989
|
-11920,348
|
109304,57
|
9898886,61
|
16436,7575
|
|
1983
|
84928,0337
|
10195,2383
|
-9394,9668
|
117527,672
|
10294554,1
|
18071,132
|
|
1984
|
93506,5316
|
10385,8769
|
-7404,5990
|
126369,407
|
10706036,7
|
19868,0191
|
|
1985
|
102951,535
|
10580,0803
|
-5835,9
|
135876,316
|
11133966,7
|
21843,578
|
|
1986
|
113350,569
|
10777,9151
|
-5531
|
146098,439
|
11579001,4
|
24015,5749
|
|
1987
|
124800
|
10979,4491
|
-15438
|
157089,584
|
12041824,6
|
26403,5425
|
|
1988
|
137840
|
10167,5229
|
7011
|
168907,605
|
12523147,2
|
29028,9554
|
|
1989
|
103428,7
|
7396,25887
|
-16782,8
|
181614,708
|
13023708,7
|
31915,424
|
|
1990
|
102070,9
|
7420,72473
|
11168,3
|
195277,781
|
13544278,2
|
30897,733
|
|
1991
|
85853,6
|
8424,29309
|
-559
|
209968,742
|
14085655,2
|
29156,068
|
|
1992
|
69394
|
9604,44812
|
13341
|
225764,919
|
14648671,6
|
28069,947
|
|
1993
|
67720,6
|
10169,8994
|
321350
|
242749,461
|
15234192,3
|
34530,897
|
|
1994
|
76021,5
|
10232,1388
|
628430
|
261011,767
|
15843116,7
|
68970,972
|
|
1995
|
81447,1
|
11359,4385
|
703070
|
280647,967
|
16476380,4
|
76842,126
|
|
1996
|
102395,9
|
11806,5905
|
757160
|
301761,42
|
17134956,3
|
66879,122
|
|
1997
|
71700
|
11994,8637
|
748220
|
324463,261
|
17819856
|
57188,011
|
|
1998
|
100130
|
12607,8851
|
771500
|
348872,987
|
18532131,8
|
58344,864
|
|
1999
|
154637
|
13105,3387
|
847700
|
375119,082
|
19272877,8
|
63020,778
|
|
2000
|
194030
|
13937,5095
|
910470
|
403339,7
|
20043232,2
|
89707,23
|
|
2001
|
192837
|
13496,2777
|
974366,787
|
460448,63
|
20844378,3
|
97219,422
|
|
2002
|
222228
|
14436,0678
|
941640
|
551544,91
|
21677547
|
71664,629
|
|
2003
|
293849
|
14858,7906
|
832600
|
572832,3
|
22544018,2
|
80029,659
|
|
2004
|
312052
|
14551,313
|
826250
|
606411,4
|
23445123
|
81928,169
|
|
2005
|
375102
|
14530,2944
|
919452,832
|
641025,8
|
25689675
|
44790,6918
|
|
2006
|
415821
|
15400,7688
|
519765
|
669801,2
|
24899032
|
66804,09
|
|
2007
|
527641
|
16928,1245
|
299733
|
726466,774
|
24256657
|
88692,626
|
|
2008
|
624476
|
17241,6023
|
415090
|
798232,612
|
27882157
|
122237,88
|
|
2009
|
698548
|
16095,2392
|
463310,434
|
843367,389
|
28070545
|
108592,25
|
|
2010
|
757818
|
16181,9874
|
582884,602
|
915930,445
|
28789460
|
63437,6546
|
|
2011
|
844960
|
15544,6384
|
613652,545
|
900744,585
|
31949723
|
97960
|
|
2012
|
924440
|
15531,9367
|
638883,878
|
955864,497
|
32580517
|
107700,566
|
|
2013
|
1022600
|
16278,8186
|
834777,966
|
1021628,68
|
32881269
|
118409,677
|
ANNEXE 3: Test ADF
|
Null Hypothesis: LINVG has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: None
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 3 (Automatic - based on t-statistic, lagpval=0.1,
maxlag=7)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-2.289360
|
0.0237
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.650145
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1.953381
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1.609798
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LINVG)
|
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 03/14/15 Time: 10:08
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1986 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 28 after adjustments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG(-1)
|
-0.014860
|
0.006491
|
-2.289360
|
0.0312
|
|
D(LINVG(-1))
|
0.036379
|
0.182049
|
0.199832
|
0.8433
|
|
D(LINVG(-2))
|
-0.135615
|
0.180223
|
-0.752486
|
0.4591
|
|
D(LINVG(-3))
|
-0.430452
|
0.182206
|
-2.362442
|
0.0266
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.233960
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.027488
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.138205
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.097681
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.090680
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-1.831401
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.197348
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-1.641086
|
|
Log likelihood
|
29.63962
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
-1.773220
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.240796
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: LINVG has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: None
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 3 (Automatic - based on t-statistic, lagpval=0.1,
maxlag=7)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-2.289360
|
0.0237
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.650145
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1.953381
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1.609798
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LINVG)
|
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 03/14/15 Time: 10:11
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1986 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 28 after adjustments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG(-1)
|
-0.014860
|
0.006491
|
-2.289360
|
0.0312
|
|
D(LINVG(-1))
|
0.036379
|
0.182049
|
0.199832
|
0.8433
|
|
D(LINVG(-2))
|
-0.135615
|
0.180223
|
-0.752486
|
0.4591
|
|
D(LINVG(-3))
|
-0.430452
|
0.182206
|
-2.362442
|
0.0266
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.233960
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.027488
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.138205
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.097681
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.090680
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-1.831401
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.197348
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-1.641086
|
|
Log likelihood
|
29.63962
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
-1.773220
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.240796
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Date: 03/14/15 Time: 10:37
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|
|
Sample: 1982 2013
|
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|
|
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|
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|
Included observations: 32
|
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Autocorrelation
|
Partial Correlation
|
|
AC
|
PAC
|
Q-Stat
|
Prob
|
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. |******|
|
. |******|
|
1
|
0.816
|
0.816
|
23.385
|
0.000
|
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|
. |***** |
|
. | . |
|
2
|
0.686
|
0.058
|
40.430
|
0.000
|
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. |***** |
|
. |* . |
|
3
|
0.641
|
0.199
|
55.826
|
0.000
|
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. |**** |
|
. *| . |
|
4
|
0.520
|
-0.195
|
66.339
|
0.000
|
|
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. |*** |
|
. | . |
|
5
|
0.437
|
0.056
|
74.032
|
0.000
|
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. |*** |
|
. | . |
|
6
|
0.389
|
-0.005
|
80.377
|
0.000
|
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. |*** |
|
. |* . |
|
7
|
0.353
|
0.096
|
85.792
|
0.000
|
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. |**. |
|
. *| . |
|
8
|
0.277
|
-0.146
|
89.272
|
0.000
|
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. |* . |
|
. *| . |
|
9
|
0.176
|
-0.135
|
90.737
|
0.000
|
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. |* . |
|
. | . |
|
10
|
0.108
|
-0.055
|
91.315
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. | . |
|
. | . |
|
11
|
0.043
|
-0.018
|
91.410
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. | . |
|
. | . |
|
12
|
-0.019
|
-0.006
|
91.430
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. *| . |
|
. *| . |
|
13
|
-0.077
|
-0.087
|
91.771
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. *| . |
|
. *| . |
|
14
|
-0.131
|
-0.067
|
92.802
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. *| . |
|
. | . |
|
15
|
-0.180
|
-0.059
|
94.873
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
.**| . |
|
. | . |
|
16
|
-0.225
|
-0.005
|
98.323
|
0.000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: VENTE_EAU has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 6 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-3.503698
|
0.0165
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-3.724070
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-2.986225
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-2.632604
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(VENTE_EAU)
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 03/14/15 Time: 10:51
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1989 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 25 after adjustments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
VENTE_EAU(-1)
|
-0.369450
|
0.105446
|
-3.503698
|
0.0027
|
|
D(VENTE_EAU(-1))
|
-0.429563
|
0.176851
|
-2.428958
|
0.0265
|
|
D(VENTE_EAU(-2))
|
-1.315453
|
0.221755
|
-5.932005
|
0.0000
|
|
D(VENTE_EAU(-3))
|
-0.610754
|
0.268575
|
-2.274056
|
0.0362
|
|
D(VENTE_EAU(-4))
|
-1.639922
|
0.363150
|
-4.515820
|
0.0003
|
|
D(VENTE_EAU(-5))
|
-0.850218
|
0.261002
|
-3.257510
|
0.0046
|
|
D(VENTE_EAU(-6))
|
-1.466231
|
0.380437
|
-3.854070
|
0.0013
|
|
C
|
1.286396
|
0.340052
|
3.782936
|
0.0015
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.820861
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.018269
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.747098
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.110492
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.055566
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-2.688162
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.052488
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-2.298122
|
|
Log likelihood
|
41.60203
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
-2.579981
|
|
F-statistic
|
11.12833
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.916537
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000029
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: LINVG has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
|
|
|
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-3.728543
|
0.0357
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-4.296729
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-3.568379
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-3.218382
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LINVG)
|
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 03/14/15 Time: 10:57
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1984 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 30 after adjustments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG(-1)
|
-0.643053
|
0.172468
|
-3.728543
|
0.0009
|
|
D(LINVG(-1))
|
0.427067
|
0.181022
|
2.359199
|
0.0261
|
|
C
|
-2.197424
|
0.598908
|
-3.669049
|
0.0011
|
|
@TREND(1982)
|
0.019574
|
0.005628
|
3.478105
|
0.0018
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.355692
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.027779
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.281349
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.094259
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.079906
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-2.092361
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.166010
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-1.905535
|
|
Log likelihood
|
35.38542
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
-2.032594
|
|
F-statistic
|
4.784460
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.215236
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.008735
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: LINVG_EAU has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
|
|
|
Lag Length: 2 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-6.251435
|
0.0001
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-4.309824
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-3.574244
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-3.221728
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LINVG_EAU)
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 03/14/15 Time: 10:57
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1985 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 29 after adjustments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU(-1)
|
-0.920844
|
0.147301
|
-6.251435
|
0.0000
|
|
D(LINVG_EAU(-1))
|
0.648468
|
0.156140
|
4.153116
|
0.0004
|
|
D(LINVG_EAU(-2))
|
0.981641
|
0.147273
|
6.665442
|
0.0000
|
|
C
|
-7.140680
|
1.162948
|
-6.140152
|
0.0000
|
|
@TREND(1982)
|
0.120287
|
0.020054
|
5.998144
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.697438
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.104160
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.647011
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.216535
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.128650
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-1.107861
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.397218
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-0.872120
|
|
Log likelihood
|
21.06398
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
-1.034030
|
|
F-statistic
|
13.83064
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.181326
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000006
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: TAXE has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: None
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-2.355232
|
0.0201
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.641672
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1.952066
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1.610400
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(TAXE)
|
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 03/14/15 Time: 11:02
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1983 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 31 after adjustments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TAXE(-1)
|
-0.031139
|
0.013221
|
-2.355232
|
0.0252
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.051074
|
Mean dependent var
|
-0.000479
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.051074
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.001381
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.001345
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-10.35298
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
5.43E-05
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-10.30672
|
|
Log likelihood
|
161.4712
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
-10.33790
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.364688
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: LINVG_ENERGIE has a unit root
|
|
Exogenous: None
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 4 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-4.482267
|
0.0001
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.653401
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1.953858
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1.609571
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LINVG_ENERGIE)
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 03/14/15 Time: 11:04
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1987 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 27 after adjustments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE(-1)
|
-0.085918
|
0.019168
|
-4.482267
|
0.0002
|
|
D(LINVG_ENERGIE(-1))
|
-0.120258
|
0.178441
|
-0.673937
|
0.5074
|
|
D(LINVG_ENERGIE(-2))
|
0.300489
|
0.160607
|
1.870951
|
0.0747
|
|
D(LINVG_ENERGIE(-3))
|
-0.458546
|
0.165237
|
-2.775084
|
0.0110
|
|
D(LINVG_ENERGIE(-4))
|
-0.466936
|
0.190369
|
-2.452799
|
0.0226
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.485638
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.381636
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.392117
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.588063
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.458494
|
Akaike info criterion
|
1.443838
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
4.624775
|
Schwarz criterion
|
1.683808
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-14.49182
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
1.515194
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.064935
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: LINVG_EAU has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: None
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 4 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-3.433706
|
0.0013
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-2.653401
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-1.953858
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-1.609571
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LINVG_EAU)
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 03/14/15 Time: 11:05
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1987 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 27 after adjustments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU(-1)
|
-0.033877
|
0.009866
|
-3.433706
|
0.0024
|
|
D(LINVG_EAU(-1))
|
0.057854
|
0.198032
|
0.292143
|
0.7729
|
|
D(LINVG_EAU(-2))
|
0.547584
|
0.166522
|
3.288365
|
0.0034
|
|
D(LINVG_EAU(-3))
|
-0.633283
|
0.167891
|
-3.771983
|
0.0011
|
|
D(LINVG_EAU(-4))
|
-0.455337
|
0.247754
|
-1.837860
|
0.0796
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.576997
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.102419
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.500088
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.224608
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.158808
|
Akaike info criterion
|
-0.676671
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.554837
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-0.436701
|
|
Log likelihood
|
14.13506
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
-0.605315
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.964500
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ANNEXE 4 : Tests de causalité de Granger
|
VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests
|
|
Date: 03/09/16 Time: 14:00
|
|
|
Sample: 1982 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 25
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: LPIB
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
19.95735
|
7
|
0.0057
|
|
INVG_EAU
|
20.90530
|
7
|
0.0039
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
34.00754
|
14
|
0.0021
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: INVG_ENERGIE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LPIB
|
97.78135
|
7
|
0.0000
|
|
INVG_EAU
|
801.2399
|
7
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
1636.650
|
14
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: INVG_EAU
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LPIB
|
1040.107
|
7
|
0.0000
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
53599.41
|
7
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
405464.4
|
14
|
0.0000
|
|
VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests
|
|
Date: 03/09/16 Time: 13:39
|
|
|
Sample: 1982 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 25
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: PIB_TETE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
21.74814
|
7
|
0.0028
|
|
INVG_EAU
|
22.63209
|
7
|
0.0020
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
37.84423
|
14
|
0.0005
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: INVG_ENERGIE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PIB_TETE
|
97.48514
|
7
|
0.0000
|
|
INVG_EAU
|
747.4835
|
7
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
1631.831
|
14
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: INVG_EAU
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PIB_TETE
|
1165.521
|
7
|
0.0000
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
51038.34
|
7
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
454214.5
|
14
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests
|
|
Date: 03/09/16 Time: 17:56
|
|
|
Sample: 1982 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 28
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: INVG_EAU
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
246946.0
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_EAU
|
53425.97
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE
|
22172.12
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LPIB
|
13432.50
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
PIB_TETE
|
14360.59
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
4.89E+08
|
20
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: INVG_ENERGIE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU
|
49592.41
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_EAU
|
25355.92
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE
|
24260.11
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LPIB
|
98075.49
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
PIB_TETE
|
119192.9
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
1.33E+08
|
20
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: LINVG_EAU
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU
|
55527.46
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
65417.59
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE
|
60905.38
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LPIB
|
43828.44
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
PIB_TETE
|
45705.22
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
1.26E+08
|
20
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: LINVG_ENERGIE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU
|
30181.91
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
96028.79
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_EAU
|
21173.25
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LPIB
|
42850.84
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
PIB_TETE
|
51729.93
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
6106794.
|
20
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: LPIB
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU
|
429.6642
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
369.1419
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_EAU
|
638.2744
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE
|
542.1127
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
PIB_TETE
|
250.2691
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
4191.993
|
20
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: PIB_TETE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU
|
439.5930
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
360.8051
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_EAU
|
651.9976
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE
|
540.5400
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LPIB
|
370.9961
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
5082.092
|
20
|
0.0000
|
|
Vector Autoregression Estimates
|
|
|
|
|
|
Date: 03/09/16 Time: 17:45
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1986 2013
|
|
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 28 after adjustments
|
|
|
|
|
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
LINVG_EAU
|
LINVG_ENERGIE
|
LPIB
|
PIB_TETE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU(-1)
|
1.119259
|
-7.548870
|
125.3474
|
-3380.591
|
-86.22501
|
-9730268.
|
|
(0.03471)
|
(0.08439)
|
(3.26998)
|
(45.0735)
|
(33.7313)
|
(3745570)
|
|
[ 32.2472]
|
[-89.4559]
|
[ 38.3328]
|
[-75.0018]
|
[-2.55623]
|
[-2.59781]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU(-2)
|
-8.556350
|
15.17003
|
-1272.455
|
5215.429
|
850.3604
|
96768970
|
|
(0.10856)
|
(0.26395)
|
(10.2279)
|
(140.982)
|
(105.506)
|
(1.2E+07)
|
|
[-78.8149]
|
[ 57.4740]
|
[-124.410]
|
[ 36.9936]
|
[ 8.05986]
|
[ 8.25992]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU(-3)
|
3.604295
|
7.754199
|
703.8456
|
4302.769
|
-659.6048
|
-73844302
|
|
(0.08496)
|
(0.20656)
|
(8.00431)
|
(110.332)
|
(82.5680)
|
(9168463)
|
|
[ 42.4232]
|
[ 37.5392]
|
[ 87.9333]
|
[ 38.9985]
|
[-7.98863]
|
[-8.05416]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU(-4)
|
7.706079
|
-15.26753
|
753.7551
|
-5581.114
|
-279.2164
|
-33108752
|
|
(0.09147)
|
(0.22238)
|
(8.61721)
|
(118.780)
|
(88.8903)
|
(9870498)
|
|
[ 84.2508]
|
[-68.6554]
|
[ 87.4709]
|
[-46.9871]
|
[-3.14114]
|
[-3.35431]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE(-1)
|
4.008724
|
-5.010438
|
484.5387
|
-2502.051
|
-235.4617
|
-27050188
|
|
(0.03771)
|
(0.09169)
|
(3.55281)
|
(48.9720)
|
(36.6488)
|
(4069538)
|
|
[ 106.302]
|
[-54.6482]
|
[ 136.382]
|
[-51.0914]
|
[-6.42481]
|
[-6.64699]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE(-2)
|
-7.416046
|
9.352842
|
-857.4442
|
3830.174
|
430.7465
|
49427814
|
|
(0.07164)
|
(0.17417)
|
(6.74916)
|
(93.0305)
|
(69.6206)
|
(7730764)
|
|
[-103.521]
|
[ 53.6990]
|
[-127.045]
|
[ 41.1711]
|
[ 6.18706]
|
[ 6.39365]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE(-3)
|
5.201903
|
-10.47298
|
557.8797
|
-4766.420
|
-223.4408
|
-25984806
|
|
(0.04207)
|
(0.10227)
|
(3.96314)
|
(54.6280)
|
(40.8816)
|
(4539544)
|
|
[ 123.660]
|
[-102.401]
|
[ 140.767]
|
[-87.2523]
|
[-5.46557]
|
[-5.72410]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE(-4)
|
-6.533936
|
10.44506
|
-795.2436
|
3917.134
|
411.0884
|
47136895
|
|
(0.06574)
|
(0.15984)
|
(6.19371)
|
(85.3742)
|
(63.8908)
|
(7094526)
|
|
[-99.3874]
|
[ 65.3481]
|
[-128.395]
|
[ 45.8820]
|
[ 6.43423]
|
[ 6.64412]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU(-1)
|
-0.000831
|
0.035125
|
-3.544785
|
10.57981
|
4.478161
|
499058.9
|
|
(0.00035)
|
(0.00086)
|
(0.03316)
|
(0.45707)
|
(0.34205)
|
(37982.2)
|
|
[-2.35981]
|
[ 41.0473]
|
[-106.901]
|
[ 23.1470]
|
[ 13.0919]
|
[ 13.1393]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU(-2)
|
0.046099
|
0.048515
|
10.79319
|
29.75469
|
-10.58201
|
-1190703.
|
|
(0.00121)
|
(0.00294)
|
(0.11403)
|
(1.57176)
|
(1.17625)
|
(130612.)
|
|
[ 38.0882]
|
[ 16.4868]
|
[ 94.6539]
|
[ 18.9308]
|
[-8.99640]
|
[-9.11631]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU(-3)
|
-0.003052
|
-0.208431
|
-5.421741
|
-90.61683
|
8.321437
|
917850.1
|
|
(0.00090)
|
(0.00220)
|
(0.08508)
|
(1.17273)
|
(0.87763)
|
(97453.3)
|
|
[-3.37924]
|
[-94.9318]
|
[-63.7257]
|
[-77.2697]
|
[ 9.48171]
|
[ 9.41836]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU(-4)
|
0.001744
|
0.080082
|
5.735815
|
44.21204
|
-7.260576
|
-799947.2
|
|
(0.00051)
|
(0.00124)
|
(0.04787)
|
(0.65986)
|
(0.49382)
|
(54834.1)
|
|
[ 3.43242]
|
[ 64.8229]
|
[ 119.817]
|
[ 67.0019]
|
[-14.7030]
|
[-14.5885]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE(-1)
|
-0.007126
|
0.008092
|
-0.985313
|
3.545118
|
0.802021
|
91394.74
|
|
(0.00011)
|
(0.00027)
|
(0.01033)
|
(0.14243)
|
(0.10659)
|
(11835.9)
|
|
[-64.9702]
|
[ 30.3452]
|
[-95.3553]
|
[ 24.8901]
|
[ 7.52435]
|
[ 7.72182]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE(-2)
|
0.006275
|
-0.002369
|
1.894722
|
1.053511
|
-1.951971
|
-218586.0
|
|
(0.00019)
|
(0.00046)
|
(0.01784)
|
(0.24591)
|
(0.18403)
|
(20435.1)
|
|
[ 33.1389]
|
[-5.14641]
|
[ 106.204]
|
[ 4.28410]
|
[-10.6067]
|
[-10.6966]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE(-3)
|
-0.004039
|
-0.044793
|
-2.362182
|
-20.07406
|
2.582373
|
287617.3
|
|
(0.00025)
|
(0.00060)
|
(0.02344)
|
(0.32314)
|
(0.24182)
|
(26852.5)
|
|
[-16.2326]
|
[-74.0412]
|
[-100.763]
|
[-62.1224]
|
[ 10.6787]
|
[ 10.7110]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE(-4)
|
-0.006461
|
0.049139
|
-0.273671
|
17.36785
|
-0.094346
|
-8454.654
|
|
(0.00014)
|
(0.00033)
|
(0.01281)
|
(0.17652)
|
(0.13210)
|
(14668.3)
|
|
[-47.5304]
|
[ 148.693]
|
[-21.3709]
|
[ 98.3930]
|
[-0.71422]
|
[-0.57639]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LPIB(-1)
|
0.066640
|
-0.623074
|
8.120464
|
-223.0022
|
4.338246
|
396554.2
|
|
(0.00107)
|
(0.00260)
|
(0.10081)
|
(1.38956)
|
(1.03989)
|
(115471.)
|
|
[ 62.2792]
|
[-239.503]
|
[ 80.5528]
|
[-160.484]
|
[ 4.17182]
|
[ 3.43423]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LPIB(-2)
|
0.100774
|
-0.137504
|
19.14090
|
-36.62380
|
-13.77810
|
-1438286.
|
|
(0.00339)
|
(0.00823)
|
(0.31895)
|
(4.39647)
|
(3.29015)
|
(365343.)
|
|
[ 29.7666]
|
[-16.7056]
|
[ 60.0115]
|
[-8.33028]
|
[-4.18768]
|
[-3.93681]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LPIB(-3)
|
-0.186221
|
0.395220
|
-38.23456
|
121.6921
|
30.82067
|
3562175.
|
|
(0.00207)
|
(0.00504)
|
(0.19546)
|
(2.69421)
|
(2.01625)
|
(223887.)
|
|
[-89.7597]
|
[ 78.3530]
|
[-195.614]
|
[ 45.1680]
|
[ 15.2862]
|
[ 15.9106]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LPIB(-4)
|
0.091630
|
0.506212
|
22.11596
|
220.6689
|
-25.61946
|
-3104818.
|
|
(0.00332)
|
(0.00808)
|
(0.31301)
|
(4.31451)
|
(3.22882)
|
(358532.)
|
|
[ 27.5796]
|
[ 62.6686]
|
[ 70.6562]
|
[ 51.1458]
|
[-7.93463]
|
[-8.65981]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PIB_TETE(-1)
|
-6.57E-07
|
5.65E-06
|
-0.000108
|
0.001994
|
4.10E-06
|
1.257448
|
|
(7.3E-09)
|
(1.8E-08)
|
(6.8E-07)
|
(9.4E-06)
|
(7.1E-06)
|
(0.78422)
|
|
[-90.3465]
|
[ 320.001]
|
[-157.049]
|
[ 211.335]
|
[ 0.58037]
|
[ 1.60344]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PIB_TETE(-2)
|
-6.65E-07
|
1.88E-06
|
-8.99E-05
|
0.000677
|
3.33E-05
|
2.823076
|
|
(2.6E-08)
|
(6.3E-08)
|
(2.5E-06)
|
(3.4E-05)
|
(2.5E-05)
|
(2.80866)
|
|
[-25.5352]
|
[ 29.7624]
|
[-36.6642]
|
[ 20.0251]
|
[ 1.31699]
|
[ 1.00513]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PIB_TETE(-3)
|
1.63E-06
|
-5.53E-06
|
0.000282
|
-0.001951
|
-0.000189
|
-22.30357
|
|
(1.6E-08)
|
(3.8E-08)
|
(1.5E-06)
|
(2.1E-05)
|
(1.5E-05)
|
(1.70714)
|
|
[ 103.010]
|
[-143.710]
|
[ 188.924]
|
[-94.9701]
|
[-12.3210]
|
[-13.0649]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PIB_TETE(-4)
|
-7.55E-07
|
-3.49E-06
|
-0.000141
|
-0.001469
|
0.000161
|
20.28348
|
|
(2.8E-08)
|
(6.9E-08)
|
(2.7E-06)
|
(3.7E-05)
|
(2.8E-05)
|
(3.05676)
|
|
[-26.6704]
|
[-50.6991]
|
[-52.7353]
|
[-39.9339]
|
[ 5.84950]
|
[ 6.63562]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
-0.656353
|
-1.626504
|
-101.3093
|
-901.8811
|
42.98881
|
4752360.
|
|
(0.03602)
|
(0.08757)
|
(3.39339)
|
(46.7745)
|
(35.0043)
|
(3886927)
|
|
[-18.2226]
|
[-18.5735]
|
[-29.8549]
|
[-19.2815]
|
[ 1.22810]
|
[ 1.22265]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
1.000000
|
1.000000
|
1.000000
|
1.000000
|
0.999991
|
0.999992
|
|
Adj. R-squared
|
1.000000
|
1.000000
|
1.000000
|
1.000000
|
0.999921
|
0.999932
|
|
Sum sq. resids
|
1.72E-12
|
1.02E-11
|
1.52E-08
|
2.90E-06
|
1.62E-06
|
20006.27
|
|
S.E. equation
|
7.57E-07
|
1.84E-06
|
7.13E-05
|
0.000983
|
0.000735
|
81.66245
|
|
F-statistic
|
1.47E+08
|
44136716
|
2.49E+08
|
14183802
|
14302.76
|
16447.51
|
|
Log likelihood
|
386.1792
|
361.3035
|
258.9038
|
185.4455
|
193.5618
|
-131.7326
|
|
Akaike AIC
|
-25.79851
|
-24.02168
|
-16.70741
|
-11.46039
|
-12.04013
|
11.19519
|
|
Schwarz SC
|
-24.60904
|
-22.83221
|
-15.51794
|
-10.27093
|
-10.85066
|
12.38466
|
|
Mean dependent
|
0.008464
|
0.006365
|
-5.281414
|
-8.072018
|
11.70167
|
121170.2
|
|
S.D. dependent
|
0.008659
|
0.011524
|
1.060373
|
3.489358
|
0.082923
|
9874.109
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)
|
2.70E-73
|
|
|
|
|
|
Determinant resid covariance
|
4.09E-79
|
|
|
|
|
|
Log likelihood
|
2288.566
|
|
|
|
|
|
Akaike information criterion
|
-152.7547
|
|
|
|
|
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-145.6179
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests
|
|
Date: 03/09/16 Time: 17:56
|
|
|
Sample: 1982 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 28
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: INVG_EAU
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
246946.0
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_EAU
|
53425.97
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE
|
22172.12
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LPIB
|
13432.50
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
PIB_TETE
|
14360.59
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
4.89E+08
|
20
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: INVG_ENERGIE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU
|
49592.41
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_EAU
|
25355.92
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE
|
24260.11
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LPIB
|
98075.49
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
PIB_TETE
|
119192.9
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
1.33E+08
|
20
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: LINVG_EAU
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU
|
55527.46
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
65417.59
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE
|
60905.38
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LPIB
|
43828.44
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
PIB_TETE
|
45705.22
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
1.26E+08
|
20
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: LINVG_ENERGIE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU
|
30181.91
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
96028.79
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_EAU
|
21173.25
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LPIB
|
42850.84
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
PIB_TETE
|
51729.93
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
6106794.
|
20
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: LPIB
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU
|
429.6642
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
369.1419
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_EAU
|
638.2744
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE
|
542.1127
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
PIB_TETE
|
250.2691
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
4191.993
|
20
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: PIB_TETE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU
|
439.5930
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
360.8051
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_EAU
|
651.9976
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE
|
540.5400
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
LPIB
|
370.9961
|
4
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
5082.092
|
20
|
0.0000
|
|
Vector Autoregression Estimates
|
|
|
|
Date: 03/09/16 Time: 18:05
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1987 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 27 after adjustments
|
|
|
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU
|
LINVG_ENERGIE
|
INVG_EAU
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU(-1)
|
0.249228
|
-15.91418
|
0.001907
|
-0.039946
|
|
(0.57441)
|
(5.25815)
|
(0.00217)
|
(0.01433)
|
|
[ 0.43388]
|
[-3.02658]
|
[ 0.87840]
|
[-2.78752]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU(-2)
|
3.103490
|
-14.81887
|
0.020478
|
-0.041949
|
|
(1.10412)
|
(10.1071)
|
(0.00417)
|
(0.02755)
|
|
[ 2.81082]
|
[-1.46619]
|
[ 4.90642]
|
[-1.52291]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU(-3)
|
-8.137393
|
68.50680
|
-0.036963
|
0.207891
|
|
(4.24502)
|
(38.8588)
|
(0.01605)
|
(0.10590)
|
|
[-1.91693]
|
[ 1.76297]
|
[-2.30351]
|
[ 1.96301]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU(-4)
|
-3.178201
|
31.35771
|
-0.012361
|
0.079624
|
|
(1.75030)
|
(16.0222)
|
(0.00662)
|
(0.04367)
|
|
[-1.81580]
|
[ 1.95714]
|
[-1.86828]
|
[ 1.82347]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU(-5)
|
6.894626
|
-77.09660
|
0.026558
|
-0.216709
|
|
(3.38414)
|
(30.9783)
|
(0.01279)
|
(0.08443)
|
|
[ 2.03733]
|
[-2.48873]
|
[ 2.07610]
|
[-2.56682]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE(-1)
|
-1.590760
|
20.87588
|
-0.008076
|
0.053884
|
|
(0.75041)
|
(6.86925)
|
(0.00284)
|
(0.01872)
|
|
[-2.11985]
|
[ 3.03904]
|
[-2.84708]
|
[ 2.87825]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE(-2)
|
1.246151
|
-20.78323
|
0.003367
|
-0.058182
|
|
(0.80385)
|
(7.35838)
|
(0.00304)
|
(0.02005)
|
|
[ 1.55023]
|
[-2.82443]
|
[ 1.10818]
|
[-2.90122]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE(-3)
|
3.020359
|
-23.39009
|
0.014982
|
-0.068276
|
|
(1.77977)
|
(16.2920)
|
(0.00673)
|
(0.04440)
|
|
[ 1.69705]
|
[-1.43568]
|
[ 2.22701]
|
[-1.53770]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE(-4)
|
-2.039492
|
1.952857
|
-0.013650
|
0.017622
|
|
(1.05242)
|
(9.63382)
|
(0.00398)
|
(0.02626)
|
|
[-1.93791]
|
[ 0.20271]
|
[-3.43111]
|
[ 0.67119]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE(-5)
|
-0.135873
|
24.32515
|
0.003469
|
0.057796
|
|
(0.44014)
|
(4.02902)
|
(0.00166)
|
(0.01098)
|
|
[-0.30870]
|
[ 6.03748]
|
[ 2.08484]
|
[ 5.26346]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU(-1)
|
813.0458
|
-5774.726
|
4.361761
|
-16.32337
|
|
(410.579)
|
(3758.43)
|
(1.55200)
|
(10.2430)
|
|
[ 1.98024]
|
[-1.53647]
|
[ 2.81041]
|
[-1.59360]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU(-2)
|
-1671.411
|
14820.35
|
-9.175640
|
41.66988
|
|
(684.904)
|
(6269.59)
|
(2.58896)
|
(17.0869)
|
|
[-2.44036]
|
[ 2.36385]
|
[-3.54414]
|
[ 2.43871]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU(-3)
|
1612.942
|
-15256.69
|
7.161701
|
-47.06755
|
|
(835.048)
|
(7644.00)
|
(3.15651)
|
(20.8326)
|
|
[ 1.93156]
|
[-1.99590]
|
[ 2.26887]
|
[-2.25932]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU(-4)
|
2148.676
|
-16029.00
|
11.96578
|
-45.23051
|
|
(984.380)
|
(9010.99)
|
(3.72099)
|
(24.5581)
|
|
[ 2.18277]
|
[-1.77883]
|
[ 3.21575]
|
[-1.84177]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU(-5)
|
-3433.233
|
25553.05
|
-14.77250
|
77.54015
|
|
(1719.86)
|
(15743.6)
|
(6.50114)
|
(42.9068)
|
|
[-1.99623]
|
[ 1.62308]
|
[-2.27230]
|
[ 1.80718]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE(-1)
|
860.6510
|
-9337.757
|
4.767891
|
-23.46538
|
|
(338.495)
|
(3098.57)
|
(1.27952)
|
(8.44471)
|
|
[ 2.54258]
|
[-3.01357]
|
[ 3.72630]
|
[-2.77871]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE(-2)
|
-2192.888
|
24261.53
|
-10.80427
|
66.40600
|
|
(1013.54)
|
(9277.95)
|
(3.83123)
|
(25.2857)
|
|
[-2.16358]
|
[ 2.61497]
|
[-2.82005]
|
[ 2.62623]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE(-3)
|
1375.666
|
-20394.47
|
6.030291
|
-55.11402
|
|
(783.568)
|
(7172.75)
|
(2.96191)
|
(19.5483)
|
|
[ 1.75564]
|
[-2.84333]
|
[ 2.03594]
|
[-2.81938]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE(-4)
|
758.4344
|
6562.156
|
3.446275
|
14.55468
|
|
(804.319)
|
(7362.71)
|
(3.04035)
|
(20.0660)
|
|
[ 0.94295]
|
[ 0.89127]
|
[ 1.13351]
|
[ 0.72534]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE(-5)
|
-1526.395
|
2878.184
|
-8.478241
|
9.583156
|
|
(955.667)
|
(8748.14)
|
(3.61245)
|
(23.8418)
|
|
[-1.59721]
|
[ 0.32901]
|
[-2.34695]
|
[ 0.40195]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
-6.166127
|
-19.36448
|
0.004008
|
-0.021232
|
|
(6.79835)
|
(62.2319)
|
(0.02570)
|
(0.16960)
|
|
[-0.90700]
|
[-0.31117]
|
[ 0.15598]
|
[-0.12518]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.999989
|
0.999909
|
0.999998
|
0.999946
|
|
Adj. R-squared
|
0.999951
|
0.999607
|
0.999990
|
0.999764
|
|
Sum sq. resids
|
0.000310
|
0.026001
|
4.43E-09
|
1.93E-07
|
|
S.E. equation
|
0.007191
|
0.065829
|
2.72E-05
|
0.000179
|
|
F-statistic
|
26398.52
|
3308.307
|
132996.8
|
5504.469
|
|
Log likelihood
|
115.2356
|
55.45251
|
265.8422
|
214.8917
|
|
Akaike AIC
|
-6.980412
|
-2.552038
|
-18.13646
|
-14.36235
|
|
Schwarz SC
|
-5.972539
|
-1.544165
|
-17.12858
|
-13.35448
|
|
Mean dependent
|
-5.217852
|
-7.836348
|
0.008743
|
0.006601
|
|
S.D. dependent
|
1.024773
|
3.320989
|
0.008695
|
0.011674
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)
|
1.24E-30
|
|
|
|
Determinant resid covariance
|
3.03E-33
|
|
|
|
Log likelihood
|
857.6048
|
|
|
|
Akaike information criterion
|
-57.30406
|
|
|
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-53.27257
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vector Autoregression Estimates
|
|
|
|
Date: 03/09/16 Time: 18:05
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1987 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 27 after adjustments
|
|
|
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU
|
LINVG_ENERGIE
|
INVG_EAU
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU(-1)
|
0.249228
|
-15.91418
|
0.001907
|
-0.039946
|
|
(0.57441)
|
(5.25815)
|
(0.00217)
|
(0.01433)
|
|
[ 0.43388]
|
[-3.02658]
|
[ 0.87840]
|
[-2.78752]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU(-2)
|
3.103490
|
-14.81887
|
0.020478
|
-0.041949
|
|
(1.10412)
|
(10.1071)
|
(0.00417)
|
(0.02755)
|
|
[ 2.81082]
|
[-1.46619]
|
[ 4.90642]
|
[-1.52291]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU(-3)
|
-8.137393
|
68.50680
|
-0.036963
|
0.207891
|
|
(4.24502)
|
(38.8588)
|
(0.01605)
|
(0.10590)
|
|
[-1.91693]
|
[ 1.76297]
|
[-2.30351]
|
[ 1.96301]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU(-4)
|
-3.178201
|
31.35771
|
-0.012361
|
0.079624
|
|
(1.75030)
|
(16.0222)
|
(0.00662)
|
(0.04367)
|
|
[-1.81580]
|
[ 1.95714]
|
[-1.86828]
|
[ 1.82347]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU(-5)
|
6.894626
|
-77.09660
|
0.026558
|
-0.216709
|
|
(3.38414)
|
(30.9783)
|
(0.01279)
|
(0.08443)
|
|
[ 2.03733]
|
[-2.48873]
|
[ 2.07610]
|
[-2.56682]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE(-1)
|
-1.590760
|
20.87588
|
-0.008076
|
0.053884
|
|
(0.75041)
|
(6.86925)
|
(0.00284)
|
(0.01872)
|
|
[-2.11985]
|
[ 3.03904]
|
[-2.84708]
|
[ 2.87825]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE(-2)
|
1.246151
|
-20.78323
|
0.003367
|
-0.058182
|
|
(0.80385)
|
(7.35838)
|
(0.00304)
|
(0.02005)
|
|
[ 1.55023]
|
[-2.82443]
|
[ 1.10818]
|
[-2.90122]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE(-3)
|
3.020359
|
-23.39009
|
0.014982
|
-0.068276
|
|
(1.77977)
|
(16.2920)
|
(0.00673)
|
(0.04440)
|
|
[ 1.69705]
|
[-1.43568]
|
[ 2.22701]
|
[-1.53770]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE(-4)
|
-2.039492
|
1.952857
|
-0.013650
|
0.017622
|
|
(1.05242)
|
(9.63382)
|
(0.00398)
|
(0.02626)
|
|
[-1.93791]
|
[ 0.20271]
|
[-3.43111]
|
[ 0.67119]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE(-5)
|
-0.135873
|
24.32515
|
0.003469
|
0.057796
|
|
(0.44014)
|
(4.02902)
|
(0.00166)
|
(0.01098)
|
|
[-0.30870]
|
[ 6.03748]
|
[ 2.08484]
|
[ 5.26346]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU(-1)
|
813.0458
|
-5774.726
|
4.361761
|
-16.32337
|
|
(410.579)
|
(3758.43)
|
(1.55200)
|
(10.2430)
|
|
[ 1.98024]
|
[-1.53647]
|
[ 2.81041]
|
[-1.59360]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU(-2)
|
-1671.411
|
14820.35
|
-9.175640
|
41.66988
|
|
(684.904)
|
(6269.59)
|
(2.58896)
|
(17.0869)
|
|
[-2.44036]
|
[ 2.36385]
|
[-3.54414]
|
[ 2.43871]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU(-3)
|
1612.942
|
-15256.69
|
7.161701
|
-47.06755
|
|
(835.048)
|
(7644.00)
|
(3.15651)
|
(20.8326)
|
|
[ 1.93156]
|
[-1.99590]
|
[ 2.26887]
|
[-2.25932]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU(-4)
|
2148.676
|
-16029.00
|
11.96578
|
-45.23051
|
|
(984.380)
|
(9010.99)
|
(3.72099)
|
(24.5581)
|
|
[ 2.18277]
|
[-1.77883]
|
[ 3.21575]
|
[-1.84177]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_EAU(-5)
|
-3433.233
|
25553.05
|
-14.77250
|
77.54015
|
|
(1719.86)
|
(15743.6)
|
(6.50114)
|
(42.9068)
|
|
[-1.99623]
|
[ 1.62308]
|
[-2.27230]
|
[ 1.80718]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE(-1)
|
860.6510
|
-9337.757
|
4.767891
|
-23.46538
|
|
(338.495)
|
(3098.57)
|
(1.27952)
|
(8.44471)
|
|
[ 2.54258]
|
[-3.01357]
|
[ 3.72630]
|
[-2.77871]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE(-2)
|
-2192.888
|
24261.53
|
-10.80427
|
66.40600
|
|
(1013.54)
|
(9277.95)
|
(3.83123)
|
(25.2857)
|
|
[-2.16358]
|
[ 2.61497]
|
[-2.82005]
|
[ 2.62623]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE(-3)
|
1375.666
|
-20394.47
|
6.030291
|
-55.11402
|
|
(783.568)
|
(7172.75)
|
(2.96191)
|
(19.5483)
|
|
[ 1.75564]
|
[-2.84333]
|
[ 2.03594]
|
[-2.81938]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE(-4)
|
758.4344
|
6562.156
|
3.446275
|
14.55468
|
|
(804.319)
|
(7362.71)
|
(3.04035)
|
(20.0660)
|
|
[ 0.94295]
|
[ 0.89127]
|
[ 1.13351]
|
[ 0.72534]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE(-5)
|
-1526.395
|
2878.184
|
-8.478241
|
9.583156
|
|
(955.667)
|
(8748.14)
|
(3.61245)
|
(23.8418)
|
|
[-1.59721]
|
[ 0.32901]
|
[-2.34695]
|
[ 0.40195]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C
|
-6.166127
|
-19.36448
|
0.004008
|
-0.021232
|
|
(6.79835)
|
(62.2319)
|
(0.02570)
|
(0.16960)
|
|
[-0.90700]
|
[-0.31117]
|
[ 0.15598]
|
[-0.12518]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.999989
|
0.999909
|
0.999998
|
0.999946
|
|
Adj. R-squared
|
0.999951
|
0.999607
|
0.999990
|
0.999764
|
|
Sum sq. resids
|
0.000310
|
0.026001
|
4.43E-09
|
1.93E-07
|
|
S.E. equation
|
0.007191
|
0.065829
|
2.72E-05
|
0.000179
|
|
F-statistic
|
26398.52
|
3308.307
|
132996.8
|
5504.469
|
|
Log likelihood
|
115.2356
|
55.45251
|
265.8422
|
214.8917
|
|
Akaike AIC
|
-6.980412
|
-2.552038
|
-18.13646
|
-14.36235
|
|
Schwarz SC
|
-5.972539
|
-1.544165
|
-17.12858
|
-13.35448
|
|
Mean dependent
|
-5.217852
|
-7.836348
|
0.008743
|
0.006601
|
|
S.D. dependent
|
1.024773
|
3.320989
|
0.008695
|
0.011674
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)
|
1.24E-30
|
|
|
|
Determinant resid covariance
|
3.03E-33
|
|
|
|
Log likelihood
|
857.6048
|
|
|
|
Akaike information criterion
|
-57.30406
|
|
|
|
Schwarz criterion
|
-53.27257
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests
|
|
Date: 03/09/16 Time: 18:07
|
|
|
Sample: 1982 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 27
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: LINVG_EAU
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE
|
83.87515
|
5
|
0.0000
|
|
INVG_EAU
|
56.63411
|
5
|
0.0000
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
48.09128
|
5
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
10599.98
|
15
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: LINVG_ENERGIE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU
|
27.73492
|
5
|
0.0000
|
|
INVG_EAU
|
64.03684
|
5
|
0.0000
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
132.6841
|
5
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
959.2716
|
15
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: INVG_EAU
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU
|
196.3591
|
5
|
0.0000
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE
|
664.8819
|
5
|
0.0000
|
|
INVG_ENERGIE
|
181.7997
|
5
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
256242.7
|
15
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dependent variable: INVG_ENERGIE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluded
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LINVG_EAU
|
25.13038
|
5
|
0.0001
|
|
LINVG_ENERGIE
|
31.26578
|
5
|
0.0000
|
|
INVG_EAU
|
68.55523
|
5
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
|
12679.48
|
15
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ANNEXE 5 : Estimations économétriques
|
System: SYST1
|
|
|
|
|
Estimation Method: Generalized Method of Moments
|
|
Date: 01/27/15 Time: 22:32
|
|
|
|
Sample: 1983 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 31
|
|
|
|
Total system (balanced) observations 93
|
|
|
Kernel: Bartlett, Bandwidth: Fixed (4), No prewhitening
|
|
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C(1)
|
12.53050
|
0.132221
|
94.76924
|
0.0000
|
|
C(2)
|
0.058838
|
0.015027
|
3.915588
|
0.0002
|
|
C(3)
|
0.280288
|
0.016902
|
16.58329
|
0.0000
|
|
C(4)
|
0.096343
|
0.054199
|
1.777576
|
0.0794
|
|
C(5)
|
4.385246
|
0.897401
|
4.886610
|
0.0000
|
|
C(6)
|
-0.366396
|
0.078247
|
-4.682555
|
0.0000
|
|
C(7)
|
0.121815
|
0.011153
|
10.92166
|
0.0000
|
|
C(8)
|
0.390505
|
0.373874
|
1.044483
|
0.2995
|
|
C(9)
|
0.040047
|
0.004077
|
9.822384
|
0.0000
|
|
C(10)
|
-5.243205
|
0.420268
|
-12.47587
|
0.0000
|
|
C(11)
|
-0.055147
|
0.007176
|
-7.685347
|
0.0000
|
|
C(12)
|
0.456286
|
0.054111
|
8.432428
|
0.0000
|
|
C(13)
|
0.000815
|
0.000504
|
1.619002
|
0.1095
|
|
C(14)
|
0.471431
|
0.017973
|
26.22954
|
0.0000
|
|
C(15)
|
0.024623
|
0.002707
|
9.097295
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Determinant residual covariance
|
1.32E-12
|
|
|
|
J-statistic
|
0.259817
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Equation: LPIB= C(1) + C(2)*LINVP+C(3)*LINVG+ C(4)*LN
|
|
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
|
|
CONSENERGIE(-1)
VENTE_EAU(-1) C
|
|
|
Observations: 31
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.913601
|
Mean dependent var
|
11.68439
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.904002
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.095305
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.029529
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.023543
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.055643
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Equation: INVP=C(5)+ C(6)*LPIB(-1)+
C(7)*CRED+C(8)*INVG+C(9)*DET
|
|
+C(10)*TAXE
|
|
|
|
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
|
|
CONSENERGIE(-1)
VENTE_EAU(-1) C
|
|
|
Observations: 31
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.769130
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.098647
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.722956
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.022096
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.011630
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.003382
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.291036
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Equation:
INVG=C(11)+C(12)*TAXE+C(13)*DET+C(14)*CONSENERGIE(-1)
|
|
+C(15)*VENTE_EAU(-1)
|
|
|
|
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
|
|
CONSENERGIE(-1)
VENTE_EAU(-1) C
|
|
|
Observations: 31
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.898182
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.055764
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.882518
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.015677
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.005373
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.000751
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.172121
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
System: SYST2
|
|
|
|
|
Estimation Method: Generalized Method of Moments
|
|
Date: 01/27/15 Time: 22:47
|
|
|
|
Sample: 1983 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 31
|
|
|
|
Total system (balanced) observations 93
|
|
|
Kernel: Bartlett, Bandwidth: Fixed (4), No prewhitening
|
|
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C(1)
|
11.95342
|
0.111139
|
107.5542
|
0.0000
|
|
C(2)
|
0.042907
|
0.007184
|
5.972154
|
0.0000
|
|
C(3)
|
0.065111
|
0.005886
|
11.06121
|
0.0000
|
|
C(4)
|
0.160893
|
0.065109
|
2.471145
|
0.0156
|
|
C(5)
|
1.889943
|
0.312125
|
6.055085
|
0.0000
|
|
C(6)
|
-0.151185
|
0.026651
|
-5.672673
|
0.0000
|
|
C(7)
|
0.138374
|
0.005155
|
26.84472
|
0.0000
|
|
C(8)
|
-1.619628
|
0.200913
|
-8.061341
|
0.0000
|
|
C(9)
|
0.026751
|
0.003458
|
7.736023
|
0.0000
|
|
C(10)
|
-4.141386
|
0.282805
|
-14.64399
|
0.0000
|
|
C(11)
|
-0.098959
|
0.013780
|
-7.181547
|
0.0000
|
|
C(12)
|
0.082155
|
0.178161
|
0.461127
|
0.6460
|
|
C(13)
|
-0.007364
|
0.000392
|
-18.78086
|
0.0000
|
|
C(14)
|
0.036366
|
0.003599
|
10.10576
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Determinant residual covariance
|
8.46E-13
|
|
|
|
J-statistic
|
0.241671
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Equation: LPIB= C(1) + C(2)*LINVP+C(3)*LINVG_EAU+
C(4)*LN
|
|
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
|
|
VENTE_EAU(-1)
C
|
|
|
|
Observations: 31
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.942923
|
Mean dependent var
|
11.68439
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.936582
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.095305
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.024001
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.015553
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.468798
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Equation: INVP=C(5)+ C(6)*LPIB(-1)+
C(7)*CRED+C(8)*INVG_EAU+C(9)
|
|
*DET+C(10)*TAXE
|
|
|
|
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
|
|
VENTE_EAU(-1)
C
|
|
|
|
Observations: 31
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.838581
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.098647
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.806297
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.022096
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.009725
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.002364
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.734317
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Equation: INVG_EAU=C(11)+C(12)*TAXE+C(13)*DET+C(14)*VENTE_EAU(
|
|
-1)
|
|
|
|
|
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
|
|
VENTE_EAU(-1)
C
|
|
|
|
Observations: 31
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.554213
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.007714
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.504682
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.008539
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.006010
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.000975
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.837783
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
System: SYST3
|
|
|
|
|
Estimation Method: Generalized Method of Moments
|
|
Date: 01/29/15 Time: 19:46
|
|
|
|
Sample: 1983 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 31
|
|
|
|
Total system (balanced) observations 93
|
|
|
Kernel: Bartlett, Bandwidth: Fixed (4), No prewhitening
|
|
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C(1)
|
11.88070
|
0.032370
|
367.0244
|
0.0000
|
|
C(2)
|
-0.016299
|
0.003327
|
-4.899542
|
0.0000
|
|
C(3)
|
0.024937
|
0.000603
|
41.38790
|
0.0000
|
|
C(4)
|
-0.012690
|
0.025063
|
-0.506334
|
0.6140
|
|
C(5)
|
2.585659
|
0.191796
|
13.48128
|
0.0000
|
|
C(6)
|
-0.211374
|
0.016068
|
-13.15467
|
0.0000
|
|
C(7)
|
0.204610
|
0.003405
|
60.09367
|
0.0000
|
|
C(8)
|
-2.477182
|
0.166818
|
-14.84965
|
0.0000
|
|
C(9)
|
0.027955
|
0.002022
|
13.82228
|
0.0000
|
|
C(10)
|
-4.914213
|
0.306585
|
-16.02885
|
0.0000
|
|
C(11)
|
-0.020320
|
0.001031
|
-19.70896
|
0.0000
|
|
C(12)
|
0.285237
|
0.042793
|
6.665424
|
0.0000
|
|
C(13)
|
-0.008447
|
0.000346
|
-24.44386
|
0.0000
|
|
C(14)
|
0.417217
|
0.013152
|
31.72267
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Determinant residual covariance
|
3.72E-13
|
|
|
|
J-statistic
|
0.214709
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Equation: LPIB= C(1) + C(2)*LINVP+C(3)*LINVG_ENERGIE+
C(4)*LN
|
|
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
|
|
CONSENERGIE(-1)
C
|
|
|
|
Observations: 31
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.964611
|
Mean dependent var
|
11.68439
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.960679
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.095305
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.018899
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.009643
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.714530
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Equation: INVP=C(5)+ C(6)*LPIB(-1)+
C(7)*CRED+C(8)*INVG_ENERGIE
|
|
+C(9)*DET+C(10)*TAXE
|
|
|
|
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
|
|
CONSENERGIE(-1)
C
|
|
|
|
Observations: 31
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.714159
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.098647
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.656991
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.022096
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.012941
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.004187
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.152078
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Equation: INVG_ENERGIE=C(11)+C(12)*TAXE+C(13)*DET+C(14)
|
|
*CONSENERGIE(-1)
|
|
|
|
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
|
|
CONSENERGIE(-1)
C
|
|
|
|
Observations: 31
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.626688
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.005749
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.585209
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.011099
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.007148
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.001380
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.735471
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
System: SYST31
|
|
|
|
|
Estimation Method: Generalized Method of Moments
|
|
Date: 03/07/16 Time: 13:48
|
|
|
|
Sample: 1983 2013
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 31
|
|
|
|
Total system (unbalanced) observations 92
|
|
|
Kernel: Bartlett, Bandwidth: Fixed (4), No prewhitening
|
|
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C(1)
|
11.96806
|
0.076172
|
157.1191
|
0.0000
|
|
C(2)
|
0.056300
|
0.023105
|
2.436732
|
0.0171
|
|
C(3)
|
0.021425
|
0.001090
|
19.65404
|
0.0000
|
|
C(4)
|
0.033996
|
0.037252
|
0.912606
|
0.3643
|
|
C(5)
|
2.461003
|
0.282366
|
8.715655
|
0.0000
|
|
C(6)
|
-0.200745
|
0.023731
|
-8.459047
|
0.0000
|
|
C(7)
|
0.203724
|
0.004610
|
44.19210
|
0.0000
|
|
C(8)
|
-2.554160
|
0.177535
|
-14.38681
|
0.0000
|
|
C(9)
|
0.027227
|
0.002511
|
10.84393
|
0.0000
|
|
C(10)
|
-4.803093
|
0.407870
|
-11.77604
|
0.0000
|
|
C(11)
|
-0.020996
|
0.001375
|
-15.27168
|
0.0000
|
|
C(12)
|
0.318050
|
0.038263
|
8.312165
|
0.0000
|
|
C(13)
|
-0.008144
|
0.000985
|
-8.269467
|
0.0000
|
|
C(14)
|
0.416044
|
0.027967
|
14.87646
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Determinant residual covariance
|
3.86E-13
|
|
|
|
J-statistic
|
0.218840
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Equation: LPIB= C(1) + C(2)*LINVP(-2)+C(3)*LINVG_ENERGIE+
C(4)*LN
|
|
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
|
|
CONSENERGIE(-1)
C
|
|
|
|
Observations: 30
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.968217
|
Mean dependent var
|
11.69022
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.964550
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.091126
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.017157
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.007654
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.622164
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Equation: INVP=C(5)+ C(6)*LPIB(-1)+
C(7)*CRED+C(8)*INVG_ENERGIE
|
|
+C(9)*DET+C(10)*TAXE
|
|
|
|
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
|
|
CONSENERGIE(-1)
C
|
|
|
|
Observations: 31
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.694873
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.098647
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.633848
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.022096
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.013371
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.004469
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.113533
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Equation: INVG_ENERGIE=C(11)+C(12)*TAXE+C(13)*DET+C(14)
|
|
*CONSENERGIE(-1)
|
|
|
|
Instruments: LPIB(-1) LINVP(-1) DET LN INVP(-1) CRED TAXE
|
|
CONSENERGIE(-1)
C
|
|
|
|
Observations: 31
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.626191
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.005749
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.584657
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.011099
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.007153
|
Sum squared resid
|
0.001381
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.732457
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ANNEXE 6 : Test de normalité
Système1
|
System Residual Normality Tests
|
|
|
|
Orthogonalization: Cholesky (Lutkepohl)
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: residuals are multivariate normal
|
|
|
Date: 03/15/15 Time: 16:06
|
|
|
|
Sample: 1983 2013
|
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 31
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Component
|
Skewness
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
0.221869
|
0.254335
|
1
|
0.6140
|
|
2
|
-0.838857
|
3.635686
|
1
|
0.0566
|
|
3
|
0.638083
|
2.103605
|
1
|
0.1470
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Joint
|
|
5.993626
|
3
|
0.1119
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Component
|
Kurtosis
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
2.567931
|
0.241133
|
1
|
0.6234
|
|
2
|
3.717638
|
0.665214
|
1
|
0.4147
|
|
3
|
2.839331
|
0.033344
|
1
|
0.8551
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Joint
|
|
0.939691
|
3
|
0.8158
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Component
|
Jarque-Bera
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
0.495468
|
2
|
0.7806
|
|
|
2
|
4.300900
|
2
|
0.1164
|
|
|
3
|
2.136949
|
2
|
0.3435
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Joint
|
6.933317
|
6
|
0.3271
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Système2
|
System Residual Normality Tests
|
|
|
|
Orthogonalization: Cholesky (Lutkepohl)
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: residuals are multivariate normal
|
|
|
Date: 03/15/15 Time: 16:09
|
|
|
|
Sample: 1983 2013
|
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 31
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Component
|
Skewness
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
0.628812
|
2.042925
|
1
|
0.1529
|
|
2
|
-1.156694
|
6.912696
|
1
|
0.0086
|
|
3
|
1.194837
|
7.376117
|
1
|
0.0066
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Joint
|
|
16.33174
|
3
|
0.0010
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Component
|
Kurtosis
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
3.117686
|
0.017890
|
1
|
0.8936
|
|
2
|
5.843421
|
10.44318
|
1
|
0.0012
|
|
3
|
5.014845
|
5.243650
|
1
|
0.0220
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Joint
|
|
15.70472
|
3
|
0.0013
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Component
|
Jarque-Bera
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
2.060814
|
2
|
0.3569
|
|
|
2
|
17.35588
|
2
|
0.0002
|
|
|
3
|
12.61977
|
2
|
0.0018
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Joint
|
32.03646
|
6
|
0.0000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Système3
|
System Residual Normality Tests
|
|
|
|
Orthogonalization: Cholesky (Lutkepohl)
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: residuals are multivariate normal
|
|
|
Date: 03/15/15 Time: 16:10
|
|
|
|
Sample: 1983 2013
|
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 31
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Component
|
Skewness
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
-0.026836
|
0.003721
|
1
|
0.9514
|
|
2
|
-0.127228
|
0.083632
|
1
|
0.7724
|
|
3
|
-0.501149
|
1.297609
|
1
|
0.2547
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Joint
|
|
1.384962
|
3
|
0.7091
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Component
|
Kurtosis
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
4.133088
|
1.658356
|
1
|
0.1978
|
|
2
|
3.121899
|
0.019193
|
1
|
0.8898
|
|
3
|
3.152818
|
0.030165
|
1
|
0.8621
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Joint
|
|
1.707714
|
3
|
0.6352
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Component
|
Jarque-Bera
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
1.662077
|
2
|
0.4356
|
|
|
2
|
0.102826
|
2
|
0.9499
|
|
|
3
|
1.327774
|
2
|
0.5148
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Joint
|
3.092676
|
6
|
0.7971
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Système31
|
System Residual Normality Tests
|
System 31
|
|
|
Orthogonalization: Cholesky (Lutkepohl)
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: residuals are multivariate normal
|
|
|
Date: 03/07/16 Time: 14:34
|
|
|
|
Sample: 1983 2013
|
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 31
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Component
|
Skewness
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
0.770997
|
3.071255
|
1
|
0.0797
|
|
2
|
-0.189188
|
0.184925
|
1
|
0.6672
|
|
3
|
0.538253
|
1.496869
|
1
|
0.2212
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Joint
|
|
4.753049
|
3
|
0.1908
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Component
|
Kurtosis
|
Chi-sq
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
3.404160
|
0.210988
|
1
|
0.6460
|
|
2
|
5.073502
|
5.553405
|
1
|
0.0184
|
|
3
|
3.725190
|
0.679288
|
1
|
0.4098
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Joint
|
|
6.443681
|
3
|
0.0919
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Component
|
Jarque-Bera
|
df
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
3.282242
|
2
|
0.1938
|
|
|
2
|
5.738331
|
2
|
0.0567
|
|
|
3
|
2.176157
|
2
|
0.3369
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Joint
|
11.19673
|
6
|
0.0825
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
