ANNEXES
Tableau 5 : Bénin, test de racine
unitaire
|
ADF Test statistic
|
1% Critical Value*
|
5% Critical Value
|
10% Critical Value
|
|
D(MM)
|
-2.285655
|
-2.6486
|
-1.9535
|
-1.6221
|
|
D (PIB, 2)
|
-4.717219
|
-2.6522
|
-1.9540
|
-1.6223
|
|
D(CRDT)
|
-2.155337
|
-2.6486
|
-1.9535
|
-1.6221
|
|
D(INF)
|
-5.679783
|
-2.6486
|
-1.9535
|
-1.6221
|
|
D(INV)
|
-5.243686
|
-2.6369
|
-1.9517
|
-1.6213
|
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit
root Tableau 6 : Burkina, test de racine unitaire
|
ADF Test statistic
|
1% Critical Value*
|
5% Critical Value
|
10% Critical Value
|
|
D(MM)
|
-3.369272
|
-2.6486
|
-1.9535
|
-1.6221
|
|
D (PIB, 2)
|
-6.178946
|
-2.6522
|
-1.9540
|
-1.6223
|
|
D(CRDT,2)
|
-6.501227
|
-2.6522
|
-1.9540
|
-1.6223
|
|
D(INF)
|
-6.949676
|
-2.6486
|
-1.9535
|
-1.6221
|
|
D(INV)
|
-3.798090
|
-2.6369
|
-1.9517
|
-1.6213
|
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit
root Tableau 7 : Cote d'Ivoire, test de racine unitaire
|
ADF Test statistic
|
1% Critical Value*
|
5% Critical Value
|
10% Critical Value
|
|
D(MM)
|
-4.323754
|
-2.6486
|
-1.9535
|
-1.6221
|
|
D (PIB, 2)
|
-6.317275
|
-2.6522
|
-1.9540
|
-1.6223
|
|
D(CRDT)
|
-3.892103
|
-2.6486
|
-1.9535
|
-1.6221
|
|
D(INF)
|
-6.148062
|
-2.6486
|
-1.9535
|
-1.6221
|
|
D(INV)
|
-5.696397
|
-2.6395
|
-1.9521
|
-1.6214
|
Tableau 8 : Niger, test de racine unitaire
|
ADF Test statistic
|
1% Critical Value
|
5% Critical Value*
|
10% Critical Value
|
|
D(MM)
|
-5.372875
|
-2.6486
|
-1.9535
|
-1.6221
|
|
D (PIB)
|
-1.958909
|
-2.6486
|
-1.9535
|
-1.6221
|
|
D(CRDT)
|
-2.418803
|
-2.6486
|
-1.9535
|
-1.6221
|
|
D(INF)
|
-2.677758
|
-2.6453
|
-1.9530
|
-1.6218
|
|
D(INV)
|
-4.325433
|
-2.6369
|
-1.9517
|
-1.6213
|
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit
root Tableau 9 : Sénégal, test de racine
unitaire
|
ADF Test statistic
|
1% Critical Value*
|
5% Critical Value
|
10% Critical Value
|
|
D(MM)
|
-5.372875
|
-2.6486
|
-1.9535
|
-1.6221
|
|
D (PIB, 2)
|
-5.926936
|
-2.6522
|
-1.9540
|
-1.6223
|
|
D(CRDT)
|
-2.344497
|
-2.6486
|
-1.9535
|
-1.6221
|
|
D(INF)
|
-2.677758
|
-2.6453
|
-1.9530
|
-1.6218
|
|
D(INV)
|
-3.440777
|
-2.6369
|
-1.9715
|
-1.6213
|
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit
root
Tableau 10 : Togo, test de racine unitaire
|
ADF Test statistic
|
1% Critical Value
|
5% Critical Value*
|
10% Critical Value
|
|
D(MM)
|
-3.365385
|
-2.6486
|
-1.9535
|
-1.6221
|
|
D (PIB)
|
-2.496799
|
-2.6486
|
-1.9535
|
-1.6221
|
|
D(CRDT)
|
-3.755077
|
-2.6486
|
-1.9535
|
-1.6221
|
|
D(INF)
|
-2.662363
|
-2.6453
|
-1.9530
|
-1.6218
|
|
D(INV)
|
-4.469186
|
-2.6395
|
-1.9521
|
-1.6214
|
Tableau 11: Estimation des paramètres du
modèle VAR(1)
Sample(adjusted): 1976 2005
Included observations: 30 after adjusting endpoints Standard
errors & t-statistics in parentheses
|
INT
|
CRDT
|
MM
|
INF
|
INV
|
PIB
|
|
INT (-1) 0.812201
|
51912.55
|
-27.21923
|
0.041016
|
-18.18776
|
-47.83397
|
|
(0.16015)
|
(21441.1)
|
(27.0213)
|
(1.02292)
|
(16.7976)
|
(81.6380)
|
|
(5.07159)
|
(2.42117)
|
(-1.00733)
|
(0.04010)
|
(-1.08276)
|
(-0.58593)
|
|
CRDT (-1) 5.81E-07
|
0.428417
|
0.000312
|
-8.43E-06
|
-0.000204
|
-0.000137
|
|
(1.4E-06)
|
(0.19145)
|
(0.00024)
|
(9.1E-06)
|
(0.00015)
|
(0.00073)
|
|
(0.40599)
|
(2.23774)
|
(1.29319)
|
(-0.92270)
|
(-1.36123)
|
(-0.18742)
|
|
MM (-1) -0.001170
|
175.2740
|
0.656538
|
-0.000812
|
0.319761
|
0.645652
|
|
(0.00127)
|
(169.954)
|
(0.21419)
|
(0.00811)
|
(0.13315)
|
(0.64711)
|
|
(-0.92163)
|
(1.03130)
|
(3.06527)
|
(-0.10012)
|
(2.40155)
|
(0.99775)
|
|
INF (-1) -0.044560
|
2144.016
|
7.775522
|
0.104824
|
1.800070
|
33.89561
|
|
(0.03188)
|
(4267.75)
|
(5.37845)
|
(0.20361)
|
(3.34349)
|
(16.2496)
|
|
(-1.39790)
|
(0.50238)
|
(1.44568)
|
(0.51483)
|
(0.53838)
|
(2.08593)
|
|
INV (-1) 0.002383
|
67.76355
|
0.087100
|
-0.000319
|
0.744951
|
-0.664635
|
|
(0.00096)
|
(128.350)
|
(0.16175)
|
(0.00612)
|
(0.10055)
|
(0.48870)
|
|
(2.48621)
|
(0.52796)
|
(0.53847)
|
(-0.05202)
|
(7.40853)
|
(-1.36001)
|
|
PIB (-1) 4.47E-05
|
44.80954
|
0.048459
|
0.000676
|
-0.041987
|
0.922692
|
|
(0.00029)
|
(38.2435)
|
(0.04820)
|
(0.00182)
|
(0.02996)
|
(0.14561)
|
|
(0.15643)
|
(1.17169)
|
(1.00544)
|
(0.37077)
|
(-1.40138)
|
(6.33655)
|
|
C -0.151960
|
113565.4
|
-150.0482
|
20.48842
|
597.5561
|
1176.195
|
|
(2.02460)
|
(271061.)
|
(341.606)
|
(12.9318)
|
(212.358)
|
(1032.08)
|
|
(-0.07506)
|
(0.41897)
|
(-0.43924)
|
(1.58434)
|
(2.81391)
|
(1.13964)
|
|
R-squared 0.875094
|
0.958542
|
0.983222
|
0.247701
|
0.890253
|
0.991963
|
|
Adj. R-squared 0.842509
|
0.947727
|
0.978845
|
0.051449
|
0.861623
|
0.989866
|
|
Sum sq. resids 31.86750
|
5.71E+11
|
907239.1
|
1300.144
|
350595.9
|
8281234.
|
|
S.E. equation 1.177091
|
157593.5
|
198.6081
|
7.518510
|
123.4638
|
600.0447
|
|
F-statistic 26.85630
|
88.63045
|
224.6362
|
1.262160
|
31.09549
|
473.1289
|
|
Log likelihood -43.47399
|
-397.6158
|
-197.3226
|
-99.10365
|
-183.0610
|
-230.4927
|
|
Akaike AIC 3.364933
|
26.97439
|
13.62151
|
7.073576
|
12.67074
|
15.83285
|
|
Schwarz SC 3.691879
|
27.30133
|
13.94845
|
7.400523
|
12.99768
|
16.15979
|
|
Mean 8.106333
dependent
|
2411060.
|
2390.860
|
5.755472
|
1185.657
|
9542.673
|
|
S.D. dependent 2.966078
|
689287.9
|
1365.487
|
7.719720
|
331.9007
|
5960.768
|
|
Determinant Residual
|
5.23E+24
|
|
|
|
|
|
Covariance
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Log Likelihood
|
-1109.166
|
|
|
|
|
|
Akaike Information Criteria
|
76.74438
|
|
|
|
|
|
Schwarz Criteria
|
78.70606
|
|
|
|
|
Tableau 12 : Décomposition de la
variance
Variance Decomposition of INT:
|
Period
|
S.E.
|
INT
|
MM
|
CRDT
|
INF
|
INV
|
PIB
|
|
1
|
1.030655
|
100.0000
|
0.000000
|
0.000000
|
0.000000
|
0.000000
|
0.000000
|
|
2
|
1.403570
|
91.38160
|
4.988108
|
2.91E-05
|
0.916251
|
2.705778
|
0.008233
|
|
3
|
1.628628
|
85.89325
|
5.566646
|
0.154467
|
1.676045
|
6.682183
|
0.027405
|
|
4
|
1.775191
|
80.44983
|
4.969718
|
0.628752
|
2.546129
|
11.21361
|
0.191960
|
|
5
|
1.882262
|
74.45741
|
4.431493
|
1.310786
|
3.561982
|
15.64181
|
0.596517
|
|
6
|
1.972490
|
68.37106
|
4.355203
|
2.018507
|
4.649545
|
19.34964
|
1.256052
|
|
7
|
2.057026
|
62.86718
|
4.749811
|
2.609314
|
5.701512
|
21.96902
|
2.103163
|
|
8
|
2.138935
|
58.41789
|
5.433028
|
3.019062
|
6.632668
|
23.46907
|
3.028279
|
|
9
|
2.216730
|
55.15707
|
6.188500
|
3.253038
|
7.404635
|
24.06714
|
3.929625
|
|
10
|
2.287392
|
52.95839
|
6.857438
|
3.353434
|
8.020041
|
24.06989
|
4.740804
|
Variance Decomposition of MM:
|
Period
|
S.E.
|
INT
|
MM
|
CRDT
|
INF
|
INV
|
PIB
|
|
1
|
173.9003
|
0.531172
|
99.46883
|
0.000000
|
0.000000
|
0.000000
|
0.000000
|
|
2
|
260.2365
|
1.543597
|
90.56385
|
4.885489
|
2.621027
|
0.104362
|
0.281674
|
|
3
|
330.6233
|
2.016939
|
86.30930
|
5.764156
|
5.040547
|
0.080568
|
0.788490
|
|
4
|
391.4510
|
2.505765
|
83.12613
|
5.766843
|
7.141836
|
0.063570
|
1.395853
|
|
5
|
446.8304
|
3.046300
|
80.11471
|
5.624607
|
9.045719
|
0.125321
|
2.043345
|
|
6
|
498.7872
|
3.576518
|
77.06772
|
5.508084
|
10.82103
|
0.314445
|
2.712210
|
|
7
|
548.3381
|
4.025772
|
73.94726
|
5.458120
|
12.51067
|
0.655143
|
3.403039
|
|
8
|
596.0615
|
4.344341
|
70.76724
|
5.477285
|
14.14167
|
1.147674
|
4.121798
|
|
9
|
642.3508
|
4.511617
|
67.55984
|
5.554686
|
15.72792
|
1.773112
|
4.872822
|
|
10
|
687.5179
|
4.533045
|
64.36366
|
5.674765
|
17.27252
|
2.499997
|
5.656006
|
Variance Decomposition of CRDT:
|
Period
|
S.E.
|
INT
|
MM
|
CRDT
|
INF
|
INV
|
PIB
|
|
1
|
137988.0
|
7.948218
|
0.375838
|
91.67594
|
0.000000
|
0.000000
|
0.000000
|
|
2
|
178414.3
|
17.77755
|
12.34158
|
67.82090
|
1.413356
|
0.134205
|
0.512407
|
|
3
|
208843.1
|
20.88734
|
21.02345
|
53.10647
|
2.842070
|
0.855105
|
1.285568
|
|
4
|
234988.2
|
19.77723
|
29.04244
|
43.24900
|
4.183072
|
1.805960
|
1.942295
|
|
5
|
259710.9
|
16.95062
|
36.80609
|
35.96924
|
5.371107
|
2.522786
|
2.380148
|
|
6
|
284592.0
|
14.12499
|
43.78523
|
30.27299
|
6.391893
|
2.795874
|
2.629024
|
|
7
|
310226.8
|
12.12405
|
49.42483
|
25.72847
|
7.284698
|
2.675237
|
2.762719
|
|
8
|
336519.2
|
11.06337
|
53.48777
|
22.12547
|
8.118163
|
2.349366
|
2.855860
|
|
9
|
363043.1
|
10.68951
|
56.04379
|
19.31777
|
8.962786
|
2.018711
|
2.967430
|
|
10
|
389341.2
|
10.66607
|
57.32458
|
17.17055
|
9.873093
|
1.826891
|
3.138817
|
Variance Decomposition of INF:
|
Period
|
S.E.
|
INT
|
MM
|
CRDT
|
INF
|
INV
|
PIB
|
|
1
|
6.583170
|
0.175862
|
66.37634
|
5.050601
|
28.39719
|
0.000000
|
0.000000
|
|
2
|
6.699282
|
0.419471
|
64.74149
|
6.609807
|
28.14422
|
0.002182
|
0.082829
|
|
3
|
6.757751
|
1.153435
|
63.80502
|
7.224660
|
27.68508
|
0.035100
|
0.096706
|
|
4
|
6.809857
|
1.880338
|
63.23809
|
7.353758
|
27.26304
|
0.169530
|
0.095249
|
|
5
|
6.857770
|
2.322914
|
62.95529
|
7.326421
|
26.88818
|
0.411197
|
0.095996
|
|
6
|
6.904742
|
2.476843
|
62.93648
|
7.247827
|
26.53632
|
0.704884
|
0.097645
|
|
7
|
6.954416
|
2.467226
|
63.12192
|
7.150108
|
26.18003
|
0.982290
|
0.098425
|
|
8
|
7.009248
|
2.436750
|
63.42633
|
7.041006
|
25.80429
|
1.193263
|
0.098361
|
|
9
|
7.069745
|
2.482519
|
63.76560
|
6.924002
|
25.41174
|
1.317956
|
0.098185
|
|
10
|
7.134723
|
2.638240
|
64.07361
|
6.805205
|
25.01923
|
1.364613
|
0.099105
|
Variance Decomposition of INV:
|
Period
|
S.E.
|
INT
|
MM
|
CRDT
|
INF
|
INV
|
PIB
|
|
1
|
108.1043
|
0.980910
|
18.26154
|
0.336375
|
0.110442
|
80.31073
|
0.000000
|
|
2
|
163.7687
|
5.561934
|
35.02037
|
4.358083
|
0.096654
|
54.42901
|
0.533952
|
|
3
|
207.2997
|
12.37471
|
41.27922
|
4.436720
|
0.161527
|
40.65791
|
1.089908
|
|
4
|
242.7485
|
18.80845
|
44.02446
|
3.722094
|
0.167273
|
31.82365
|
1.454074
|
|
5
|
270.9733
|
23.93508
|
45.20679
|
3.060904
|
0.139377
|
26.04883
|
1.609024
|
|
6
|
292.6252
|
27.64804
|
45.62351
|
2.625520
|
0.128403
|
22.36601
|
1.608514
|
|
7
|
308.7012
|
30.09597
|
45.63478
|
2.418128
|
0.182886
|
20.14567
|
1.522561
|
|
8
|
320.4292
|
31.49012
|
45.40134
|
2.398848
|
0.343058
|
18.94728
|
1.419349
|
|
9
|
329.0582
|
32.05346
|
44.99130
|
2.518306
|
0.636455
|
18.44276
|
1.357715
|
|
10
|
335.6899
|
32.00613
|
44.43433
|
2.727139
|
1.074208
|
18.37670
|
1.381482
|
|
Variance Decomposition of PIB:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Period
|
S.E.
|
INT
|
MM
|
CRDT
|
INF
|
INV
|
PIB
|
|
1
|
525.3962
|
0.910105
|
32.64574
|
4.397805
|
32.61828
|
0.000150
|
29.42792
|
|
2
|
908.8471
|
1.803520
|
46.06900
|
3.772830
|
29.63620
|
0.511275
|
18.20717
|
|
3
|
1210.089
|
2.732079
|
48.92199
|
3.624664
|
28.50229
|
1.199633
|
15.01934
|
|
4
|
1468.761
|
3.491130
|
48.92846
|
3.769388
|
28.10845
|
2.045934
|
13.65664
|
|
5
|
1701.984
|
3.966874
|
47.77168
|
4.051557
|
28.14099
|
3.019007
|
13.04989
|
|
6
|
1917.824
|
4.157772
|
46.05603
|
4.394952
|
28.45566
|
4.069055
|
12.86652
|
|
7
|
2120.959
|
4.118230
|
44.07160
|
4.756410
|
28.95749
|
5.141778
|
12.95449
|
|
8
|
2314.551
|
3.920012
|
41.98523
|
5.108416
|
29.57463
|
6.187779
|
13.22394
|
|
9
|
2500.866
|
3.631050
|
39.90294
|
5.433291
|
30.25179
|
7.167956
|
13.61298
|
|
10
|
2681.545
|
3.305490
|
37.89454
|
5.720808
|
30.94776
|
8.055779
|
14.07563
|
Ordering: INT MM CRDT INF INV PIB
| 
