|
Null Hypothesis: D(PIB_REEL,2) has a unit root
|
|
Exogenous: Constant
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-3.436169
|
0.0211
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-3.788030
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-3.012363
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-2.646119
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(PIB_REEL,3)
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 01/18/80 Time: 20:41
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1983 2003
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 21 after adjustments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D (PIB_REEL (-1) ,2)
|
-0.780283
|
0.227079
|
-3.436169
|
0.0028
|
|
C
|
-9.88E+08
|
4.77E+10
|
-0.020705
|
0.9837
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.383262
|
Mean dependent var
|
-7.01E+09
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.350802
|
S.D. dependent var
|
2.71E+11
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
2.18E+11
|
Akaike info criterion
|
55.14761
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
9.06E+23
|
Schwarz criterion
|
55.24709
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-577.0499
|
F-statistic
|
11.80726
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.856989
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.002768
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: D(CCMLT) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-3.715203
|
0.0113
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-3.769597
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-3.004861
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-2.642242
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(CCMLT,2)
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 01/18/80 Time: 20:43
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1982 2003
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 22 after adjustments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(CCMLT(-1))
|
-0.794780
|
0.213926
|
-3.715203
|
0.0014
|
|
C
|
5.78E+09
|
2.70E+10
|
0.214081
|
0.8327
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.408332
|
Mean dependent var
|
-3.60E+09
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.378748
|
S.D. dependent var
|
1.60E+11
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
1.26E+11
|
Akaike info criterion
|
54.04520
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
3.18E+23
|
Schwarz criterion
|
54.14439
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-592.4972
|
F-statistic
|
13.80273
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.060332
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.001368
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: D(M2,2) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 2 (Fixed)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-2.882365
|
0.0661
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-3.831511
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-3.029970
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-2.655194
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20
|
|
observations and
may not be accurate for a sample size of 19
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(M2,3)
|
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 01/18/80 Time: 20:47
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1985 2003
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 19 after adjustments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(M2(-1),2)
|
-1.850634
|
0.642054
|
-2.882365
|
0.0114
|
|
D (M2 (-1) ,3)
|
0.501368
|
0.440324
|
1.138634
|
0.2727
|
|
D (M2 (-2) ,3)
|
-0.038049
|
0.277487
|
-0.137120
|
0.8928
|
|
C
|
-2.77E+09
|
2.56E+10
|
-0.108107
|
0.9153
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.708771
|
Mean dependent var
|
-8.63E+09
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.650525
|
S.D. dependent var
|
1.88E+11
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
1.11E+11
|
Akaike info criterion
|
53.89489
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
1.86E+23
|
Schwarz criterion
|
54.09372
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-508.0015
|
F-statistic
|
12.16861
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.824709
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000268
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Null Hypothesis: D(MI) has a unit root
|
|
|
Exogenous: Constant
|
|
|
|
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
|
-3.586552
|
0.0149
|
|
Test critical values:
|
1% level
|
|
-3.769597
|
|
|
5% level
|
|
-3.004861
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10% level
|
|
-2.642242
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(MI,2)
|
|
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
|
|
Date: 01/18/80 Time: 20:45
|
|
|
|
Sample (adjusted): 1982 2003
|
|
|
|
Included observations: 22 after adjustments
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D(MI(-1))
|
-0.782839
|
0.218271
|
-3.586552
|
0.0018
|
|
C
|
26.68769
|
37.63114
|
0.709192
|
0.4864
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.391419
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.000000
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.360990
|
S.D. dependent var
|
216.4433
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
173.0206
|
Akaike info criterion
|
13.23121
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
598722.8
|
Schwarz criterion
|
13.33039
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-143.5433
|
F-statistic
|
12.86336
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.935905
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.001845
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
