Impact de la dette publique sur l'investissement privé au Sénégal.

ANNEXES

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Tableau 1: Données utilisées pour l'estimation du modèle

obs	IPR	IPU	CE	DET
1980	0.099181	0.047179	0.364311	0.315461
1981	0.124297	0.032427	0.375471	0.038858
1982	0.176158	0.032004	0.347294	0.458090
1983	0.173653	0.035392	0.348651	0.590908
1984	0.168550	0.034462	0.316065	0.622977
1985	0.153982	0.034223	0.298160	0.693804
1986	0.099777	0.035846	0.269987	0.627496
1987	0.114559	0.037626	0.266453	0.660799
1988	0.131240	0.039062	0.290979	0.654033
1989	0.128456	0.039877	0.282240	0.543182
1990	0.139200	0.040734	0.264377	0.517495
1991	0.139404	0.041492	0.250244	0.516001
1992	0.141352	0.047578	0.264182	5.014333
1993	0.145345	0.036300	0.265299	0.543737
1994	0.180538	0.032643	0.163609	0.796533
1995	0.148587	0.040699	0.146942	0.669327
1996	0.158568	0.043906	0.159780	0.639462
1997	0.143993	0.050945	0.158091	0.069465
1998	0.180051	0.051154	0.148245	0.693903
1999	0.163669	0.060053	0.153522	0.065496
2000	0.178926	0.045021	0.186747	0.683780
2001	0.176730	0.050519	0.183557	6.497159
2002	0.191618	0.056578	0.184953	0.659599
2003	0.149822	0.061788	0.196936	0.572044
2004	0.160246	0.066509	0.201469	0.440063
2005	0.197176	0.099584	0.226136	0.404564
2006	0.185000	0.097000	0.226569	0.175267
2007	0.197000	0.112000	0.226767	0.175883
2008	0.202000	0.100000	0.242567	0.160991
2009	0.173826	0.071116	0.237596	0.348885

Sources : ANSD, BCEAO, Banque mondiale et DPEE

Tableau : données utilisées pour l'estimation du modèle (suite)

75

obs

	TE	TIN	PIB
1980	158.4158	14.5000	-0.031065
1981	165.5914	14.5000	0.050695
1982	143.8202	16.0000	0.078431
1983	139.7590	14.5000	-0.053264
1984	161.8421	14.5000	0.037458
1985	163.6364	14.5000	0.328347
1986	172.2892	13.5000	0.031133
1987	168.7500	13.5000	0.069437
1988	166.6667	13.6000	-0.059243
1989	171.8750	15.1000	0.039779
1990	172.2222	16.0000	-0.067564
1991	171.4286	16.0000	0.025583
1992	172.2222	16.8000	0.012426
1993	166.6667	21.0000	0.013008
1994	133.0357	20.0000	-0.001733
1995	156.2500	15.0000	0.053647
1996	165.6600	13.0000	0.021213
1997	126.3200	12.0000	0.031240
1998	130.4300	15.0000	0.058987
1999	114.8500	15.0000	0.063471
2000	100.0000	15.0000	0.031990
2001	98.36000	15.0000	0.045809
2002	99.10000	14.0000	0.006548
2003	99.41000	14..0000	0.066613
2004	98.47000	14.0000	0.059005
2005	97.73000	14.0000	0.056271
2006	99.62000	14.1000	0.025280
2007	97.34000	14.1000	0.048564
2008	99.21000	14.0000	0.033273
2009	87.70000	14.1000	0.022218

Sources : ANSD, BCEAO, Banque mondiale et DPEE

Tableau 2 : Estimation de la relation de long terme de l'investissement Privé

Dependent Variable: IPR

Méthode: Least Squares

Date: 04/13/11 Time: 09:10

Sample (adjusted): 1980 2009

Included observations: 30 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
C	-112.1168	60.50427 -1.853039	0.0921
IPU	0.893458	0.323867 2.758716	0.0003
PIB	0.096724	0.030276 3.194731	0.0003
DET	0.057090	0.095670 2.812375	0.0010
DET2	-0.050098	0.166763 -3.004160	0.0019
TIN	-2.993866	1.175992 -2.545823	0.0009
TE	1.013300	0.860502 2.177568	0.0252
CE	0.114000	0.079300 1.435576	0.1793
R-squared	0.982010	Mean dependent var	218.4048
Adjusted R-squared	0.974602	S.D. dependent var	160.1508
S.E. of regression	25.52276	Akaike info criterion	9.571356
Sum squared resid	11074.00	Schwarz criterion	9.961396
Log likelihood	-111.6420	F-statistic	132.5658
Durbin-Watson stat	1.974710	Prob (F-statistic)	0.000000

Tableau 3 : Test de Ramsey

Ramsey RESET Test:

76

F-statistic 1.798865 Probability 0.191248

Log likelihood ratio 11.962548 Probability 0.083637

Tableau 3 :Test de white

White Hétéroscédasticité Test:

F-statistic 2.356612 Probability 0.065505

Obs*R-squared 20.62355 Probability 0.111676

77

Graphique 1 : Test de stabilité de CUSUM

^15 ^10 ^5 ^0 ^-5 ^-10 ^-15

^{88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08}

^{CUSUM 5% Significance}

Graphique 2 : Test de stabilité de Cusum Squares

^1.6 ^1.2 ^0.8 ^0.4 ^0.0 ^-0.4

^{88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08}

^{CUSUM of Squares 5% Significance}

Tableau 4 :Estimation de la relation de court terme de l'investissement privé au Sénégal

ESTIAMATION DE LA RELATION DE COURT TERME

Dependent Variable: D(IPR) Method: Least Squares

Date: 04/13/11 Time: 09:19 Sample (adjusted): 1981 2009

Included observations: 30 after adjusting endpoints

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistic	Prob.
C	8.552837	3.034202 2.818080	0.0028
D(IPU)	0.870368	0.667328 1.304258	0.1902
D(PIB)	0.035106	0.020819 1.686248	0.0903
D(DET)	0.081002	0.059431 1.362952	0.1806
D(DET^2)	-0.420527	0.300213 -1.400760	0.1869
D(TIN)	-2.407292	0.828215 -2.906602	0.0100
D(TE)	0.229529	0.105895 2.167515	0.0424
D(CE)	0.101000	0.066885 1.510046	0.1816
ERREUR(-1)	-0.561128	0.233142 -2.406809	0.0404
R-squared	0.782167	Mean dependent var	23.20583
Adjusted R-squared	0.665989	S.D. dependent var	33.86014
S.E. of regression	19.56901	Akaike info criterion	9.065768
Sum squared resid	5744.193	Schwarz criterion	9.507538
Log likelihood	-99.78922	F-statistic	6.732511
Durbin-Watson stat	1.921722	Prob (F-statistic)	0.000811

Tableau 5 :Test de white

White Hétéroscédasticité Test:

78

F-statistic 0.764153 Probability 0.697616

Obs*R-squared 14.63554 Probability 0.601477

Tableau 6 :Test de Ramsey

F-statistic 2.288342 Probability 0.130170

Log likelihood ratio 10.569832 Probability 0.07444

79

Graphique 3 : Test de stabilité de Cusum

^15 ^10 ^5 ^0 ^-5 ^-10 ^-15

^{90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08}

^{CUSUM 5% Significance}

Graphique 5 Test de stabilité de Cusum Squares

^1.6 ^1.2 ^0.8 ^0.4 ^0.0 ^-0.4

^{90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08}

^{CUSUM of Squares 5% Significance}