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Financial development and economic growth: evidence from Niger

( Télécharger le fichier original )
par Oumarou Seydou
Xiamen University - Master of Economics Applied Finance 2012
  

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Appendix

A1 VAR lag length

VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria Endogenous variables: CP GDP M2 Exogenous variables: C

Date: 07/26/12 Time: 03:52

Sample: 1970 2010

Included observations: 36

Lag

LogL

LR

FPE

AIC

SC

HQ

0

-16.79238

NA

0.000603

1.099577

1.231537

1.145634

1

99.05879

205.9576*

1.60e-06*

-4.836600*

-4.308760*

-4.652370*

2

105.2066

9.904788

1.89e-06

-4.678144

-3.754425

-4.355741

3

110.4105

7.516778

2.41e-06

-4.467251

-3.147652

-4.006676

4

119.3113

11.37318

2.57e-06

-4.461737

-2.746258

-3.862989

5

128.4008

10.09944

2.82e-06

-4.466709

-2.355351

-3.729789

* indicates lag order selected by the criterion

LR: sequential modified LR test statistic (each test at 5% level)

FPE: Final prediction error

AIC: Akaike information criterion

SC: Schwarz information criterion

HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion

A2 Cointegration test

Date: 08/16/12 Time: 13:14

 

Sample (adjusted): 1971 2010

Included observations: 40 after adjustments

Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend

Series: CP GDP FD

Lags interval (in first differences): No lags

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)

Hypothesized

 

Trace

0.05

 

No. of CE(s)

Eigenvalue

Statistic

Critical Value

Prob.**

None

0.441065

26.03211

29.79707

0.1277

At most 1

0.061416

2.763230

15.49471

0.9766

At most 2

0.005682

0.227925

3.841466

0.6331

Trace test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the

hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)

Hypothesized

 

Max-Eigen

0.05

 

No. of CE(s)

Eigenvalue

Statistic

Critical Value

Prob.**

None *

0.441065

23.26888

21.13162

0.0246

At most 1

0.061416

2.535305

14.26460

0.9728

At most 2

0.005682

0.227925

3.841466

0.6331

Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes

rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999)

p-values

Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):

CP

GDP

FD

 
 

-2.494180

-3.258155

4.272959

 
 

-1.553644

1.676929

-0.177757

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

0.893488

4.323155

0.391353

 
 

Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):

 

D(CP)

-0.056446

0.038557

-0.001286

 

D(GDP)

0.018937

0.006920

0.003697

 

D(FD)

-0.086857

-0.003577

0.003878

 

1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 102.4326

Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

CP

GDP

M2

 
 

1.000000

1.306303

-1.713172

 
 
 

(0.34947)

(0.20415)

 
 

Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

 

D(CP)

0.140787

 
 
 
 

(0.06835)

 
 
 

D(GDP)

-0.047233

 
 
 
 

(0.02441)

 
 
 

D(FD)

0.216637

 
 
 
 

(0.04508)

 
 
 

2 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 103.7002

Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

CP

GDP

FD

 
 

1.000000

0.000000

-0.712449

 
 
 
 

(0.61835)

 
 

0.000000

1.000000

-0.766072

 
 
 
 

(0.47572)

 
 

Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

 

D(CP)

0.080882

0.248568

 
 
 

(0.07840)

(0.09776)

 
 

D(GDP)

-0.057983

-0.050097

 
 
 

(0.02857)

(0.03563)

 
 

D(FD)

0.222195

0.276995

 
 
 

(0.05309)

(0.06620)

 
 

A3 vector Autoregression Estimates

Vector Autoregression Estimates

 

Date: 09/06/12 Time: 11:16

 

Sample (adjusted): 1971 2010

 

Included observations: 40 after adjustments

Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]

 

GDP

CP

FD

GDP(-1)

0.965886
(0.05650)
[ 17.0957]

0.243011
(0.15534)
[ 1.56440]

0.293759
(0.10513)
[ 2.79437]

CP(-1)

-0.054680
(0.03062)
[-1.78580]

1.079734
(0.08418)
[ 12.8258]

0.225660
(0.05697)
[ 3.96086]

FD(-1)

0.081135
(0.04281)
[ 1.89506]

-0.248549
(0.11771)
[-2.11150]

0.631017
(0.07966)
[ 7.92114]

C

0.865941
(1.52758)
[ 0.56687]

-6.172351 (4.19993) [-1.46963]

-7.562115
(2.84233)
[-2.66054]

R-squared

0.931321

0.899022

0.897710

Adj. R-squared

0.925598

0.890607

0.889186

Sum sq. resids

0.143120

1.081871

0.495495

S.E. equation

0.063052

0.173355

0.117319

F-statistic

162.7258

106.8380

105.3140

Log likelihood

55.90150

15.44621

31.06402

Akaike AIC

-2.595075

-0.572311

-1.353201

Schwarz SC

-2.426187

-0.403423

-1.184313

Mean dependent

27.37380

2.215064

2.566628

S.D. dependent

0.231156

0.524134

0.352429

Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)

1.53E-06

 

Determinant resid covariance

1.12E-06

 

Log likelihood

103.8142

 

Akaike information criterion

-4.590710

 

Schwarz criterion

-4.084046

 

A4 Vector error Correction Estimates

Vector Error Correction Estimates

Date: 08/16/12 Time: 22:31

Sample (adjusted): 1971 2010

Included observations: 40 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]

Cointegrating Eq:

CointEq1

 

GDP(-1)

1.000000

 

CP(-1)

0.765519
(0.14499)
[ 5.27997]

 

FD(-1)

-1.311466
(0.20636)
[-6.35514]

 

C

-25.71474

 

Error Correction:

D(GDP)

D(CP)

D(FD)

CointEq1

-0.061700
(0.03189)
[-1.93501]

0.183910
(0.08928)
[ 2.05985]

0.282994
(0.05889)
[ 4.80530]

C

0.018184
(0.00979)
[ 1.85806]

0.020999
(0.02740)
[ 0.76631]

0.034749
(0.01808)
[ 1.92244]

R-squared

0.089695

0.100443

0.377976

Adj. R-squared

0.065740

0.076770

0.361607

Sum sq. resids

0.145582

1.141404

0.496608

S.E. equation

0.061896

0.173312

0.114318

F-statistic

3.744264

4.242996

23.09087

Log likelihood

55.56039

14.37487

31.01913

Akaike AIC

-2.678019

-0.618744

-1.450957

Schwarz SC

-2.593575

-0.534300

-1.366513

Mean dependent

0.018184

0.020999

0.034749

S.D. dependent

0.064037

0.180374

0.143077

Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)

1.40E-06

 

Determinant resid covariance

1.20E-06

 

Log likelihood

102.4326

 

Akaike information criterion

-4.671629

 

Schwarz criterion

-4.291632

 

Acknowledgment

Acknowledgment

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