Annexe1-Tableau 5
Vector Autoregression Estimates
Date: 07/14/12 Time: 19:20
Sample (adjusted): 1972 2010
Included observations: 39 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
CYCLE_GOUV CYCLE_CONS CYCLE_INVEST
CYCLE_GOUV(-1) -0.541344 -3.735683 -1.666479
(0.44860) (1.44144) (0.70174)
[-1.20675] [-2.59163] [-2.37478]
CYCLE_GOUV(-2) -0.826034 -2.015019 -0.988056
(0.51111) (1.64233) (0.79954)
[-1.61614] [-1.22693] [-1.23579]
CYCLE_CONS(-1) 0.456901 2.294334 0.821848
(0.14727) (0.47321) (0.23038)
[ 3.10246] [ 4.84841] [ 3.56743]
CYCLE_CONS(-2) 0.074383 -0.126112 0.087633
(0.17417) (0.55963) (0.27245)
[ 0.42708] [-0.22535] [ 0.32165]
CYCLE_INVEST(-1) -0.278143 -1.173263 -0.502314
(0.18053) (0.58007) (0.28240)
[-1.54074] [-2.02263] [-1.77876]
CYCLE_INVEST(-2) 0.248090 1.134152 0.311153
(0.19566) (0.62871) (0.30607)
[ 1.26795] [ 1.80395] [ 1.01660]
C 8.53E+08 2.86E+09 9.32E+08
(2.3E+09) (7.2E+09) (3.5E+09)
[ 0.37826] [ 0.39506] [ 0.26420]
R-squared 0.609095 0.711244 0.487329
Adj. R-squared 0.535800 0.657103 0.391203
Sum sq. resids 6.25E+21 6.45E+22 1.53E+22
S.E. equation 1.40E+10 4.49E+10 2.19E+10
UNIVERSITE PEDAGOGIQUE NATIONALE : Analyse
économétrique de l'efficacité des politiques
budgétaires. Cas du Brésil, du Congo et de la RD Congo
(1970-2010) Par N'SUNDI ZALA Hugo
Page 89 sur 123
F-statistic 8.310224 13.13672 5.069693
Log likelihood -962.5423 -1008.066 -979.9924
Akaike AIC 49.72012 52.05467 50.61499
Schwarz SC 50.01871 52.35326 50.91358
Mean dependent 11763664 -43583179 46991801
S.D. dependent 2.05E+10 7.67E+10 2.80E+10
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) 1.03E+61
Determinant resid covariance 5.66E+60
Log likelihood -2893.850
Akaike information criterion 149.4795
Schwarz criterion 150.3753
Annexe1-Tableau 6
Vector Autoregression Estimates
Date: 07/14/12 Time: 19:21
Sample (adjusted): 1972 2010
Included observations: 39 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
CYCLE_GOUV CYCLE_PIB CYCLE_CONS
CYCLE_GOUV(-1) -0.411111 -5.785249 -3.136360
(0.46926) (2.60173) (1.51342)
[-0.87608] [-2.22362] [-2.07237]
CYCLE_GOUV(-2) -0.988178 -5.135395 -2.801822
(0.52892) (2.93250) (1.70582)
[-1.86830] [-1.75120] [-1.64251]
CYCLE_PIB(-1) -0.128623 -0.788909 -0.530154
(0.17292) (0.95870) (0.55767)
[-0.74385] [-0.82290] [-0.95066]
CYCLE_PIB(-2) 0.261091 2.347975 1.332809
(0.17936) (0.99441) (0.57844)
[ 1.45572] [ 2.36118] [ 2.30414]
CYCLE_CONS(-1) 0.507797 3.901842 2.450519
(0.29332) (1.62625) (0.94598)
[ 1.73122] [ 2.39928] [ 2.59044]
CYCLE_CONS(-2) -0.190788 -2.592647 -1.535948
(0.29728) (1.64820) (0.95875)
[-0.64179] [-1.57302] [-1.60203]
C 9.59E+08 5.29E+09 3.32E+09
(2.3E+09) (1.3E+10) (7.5E+09)
[ 0.41269] [ 0.41040] [ 0.44335]
R-squared 0.585516 0.652561 0.691557
Adj. R-squared 0.507801 0.587416 0.633725
Sum sq. resids 6.63E+21 2.04E+23 6.89E+22
UNIVERSITE PEDAGOGIQUE NATIONALE : Analyse
économétrique de l'efficacité des politiques
budgétaires. Cas du Brésil, du Congo et de la RD Congo
(1970-2010) Par N'SUNDI ZALA Hugo
Page 90 sur 123
S.E. equation 1.44E+10 7.98E+10 4.64E+10
F-statistic 7.534079 10.01707 11.95784
Log likelihood -963.6844 -1030.483 -1009.352
Akaike AIC 49.77869 53.20424 52.12062
Schwarz SC 50.07728 53.50283 52.41921
Mean dependent 11763664 -76159558 -43583179
S.D. dependent 2.05E+10 1.24E+11 7.67E+10
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) 1.31E+61
Determinant resid covariance 7.22E+60
Log likelihood -2898.580
Akaike information criterion 149.7220
Schwarz criterion 150.6178
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