ANNEXE
ANNEXE 1
|
ANNEES
|
TCE
|
PTN
|
PIB/hab.
en %
|
TX INF
|
MM
|
|
1992
|
265
|
-10.4
|
217.49
|
2730
|
448874919
|
|
1993
|
283
|
-13.5
|
272.76
|
4583
|
20817217315
|
|
1994
|
555
|
-3.9
|
142.97
|
9796.9
|
531907
|
|
1995
|
499
|
0.7
|
134.33
|
370
|
2464978
|
|
1996
|
512
|
1.1
|
133.84
|
1705
|
13698948
|
|
1997
|
2.45
|
-5.4
|
138.18
|
14
|
21323175
|
|
1998
|
2.4
|
-1.7
|
138.24
|
135
|
665298765
|
|
1999
|
4.5
|
-4.3
|
102.67
|
484
|
3915273633
|
|
2000
|
50.0
|
-6.9
|
406.57
|
511.2
|
23558063993
|
|
2001
|
311.6
|
-2.1
|
154.42
|
135.09
|
77143732
|
|
2002
|
382.1
|
3.5
|
176.26
|
15.8
|
98832881
|
|
2003
|
405.0
|
5.8
|
175.34
|
4.44
|
130119
|
|
2004
|
398.3
|
6.6
|
196.19
|
9.22
|
222227
|
|
2005
|
473.8
|
7.8
|
221.45
|
21.27
|
277111
|
|
2006
|
468.0
|
5.3
|
257.17
|
18.2
|
436922
|
|
2007
|
516.7
|
6.3
|
286.14
|
9.96
|
658834
|
|
2008
|
561.1
|
6.2
|
326.14
|
28
|
382543
|
|
2009
|
806.5
|
2.9
|
301.93
|
53.44
|
502160
|
|
2010
|
905.9
|
7.1
|
346.70
|
9.84
|
466073
|
|
2011
|
919.4
|
6.9
|
404.11
|
15.43
|
434006
|
|
2012
|
919.4
|
7.1
|
446.03
|
2.7
|
509285
|
|
2013
|
919.7
|
8.5
|
484.21
|
1.07
|
540316
|
|
2014
|
925.2
|
9.5
|
462.6
|
1.03
|
472432
|
|
2015
|
926.0
|
6.9
|
442
|
0.82
|
390177
|
|
2016
|
1010.3
|
2.4
|
513.2
|
23.6
|
281939
|
82
ANNEXE 2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/04/20 Time: 07:06 Sample: 1992 2016
|
Included observations: 25
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
-10.95760
|
71.50739 -0.153237
|
0.8797
|
|
LPPTN
|
17.21741
|
7.706508 2.234139
|
0.0371
|
|
LPIBH
|
1.800403
|
0.272798 6.599771
|
0.0000
|
|
LTXINF
|
0.048575
|
0.015217 3.192126
|
0.0046
|
|
LMM
|
-1.80E-08
|
6.60E-09 -2.734512
|
0.0128
|
|
R-squared
|
0.854728
|
Mean dependent var
|
520.8940
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.825673
|
S.D. dependent var
|
324.1368
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
135.3350
|
Akaike info criterion
|
12.83024
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
366311.3
|
Schwarz criterion
|
13.07402
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-155.3780
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
12.89785
|
|
F-statistic
|
29.41817
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.687390
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000000
|
|
|
|
LTCH
|
LPPTN
|
LPIBH
|
LTXINF
|
LMM
|
|
LTCH
|
1
|
0.67838193
|
0.73870718
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
26287626
|
22105079
|
0.12197802
|
0.38849554
|
|
|
|
|
76351747
|
81806467
|
|
LPPTN
|
0.67838193
|
1
|
0.42388928
|
-
|
-
|
|
26287626
|
|
16356769
|
0.52240721
|
0.60079413
|
|
|
|
|
62729525
|
66820976
|
|
LPIBH
|
0.73870718
|
0.42388928
|
1
|
-
|
0.11597393
|
|
22105079
|
16356769
|
|
0.26849017
|
5091608
|
|
|
|
|
83017969
|
|
|
LTXINF
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
1
|
0.21974828
|
|
0.12197802
|
0.52240721
|
0.26849017
|
|
6937497
|
|
76351747
|
62729525
|
83017969
|
|
|
|
LMM
|
-
|
-
|
0.11597393
|
0.21974828
|
1
|
|
0.38849554
|
0.60079413
|
5091608
|
6937497
|
|
|
81806467
|
66820976
|
|
|
|
83
ANNEXE 3
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 0.338495 Prob. F(2,18) 0.7173
Obs*R-squared 0.906183 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.6357
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/04/20 Time: 07:25
Sample: 1992 2016
Included observations: 25
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 11.24339 75.29343 0.149328 0.8830
LPPTN -1.195170 8.172084 -0.146250 0.8853
LPIBH -0.013440 0.284212 -0.047290 0.9628
LTXINF -0.005967 0.017340 -0.344140 0.7347
LMM -1.44E-10 7.20E-09 -0.019982 0.9843
RESID(-1) 0.198094 0.259463 0.763478 0.4551
RESID(-2) -0.106927 0.250501 -0.426854 0.6745
R-squared 0.036247 Mean dependent var 1.88E-14
Adjusted R-squared -0.285004 S.D. dependent var 123.5434
S.E. of regression 140.0463 Akaike info criterion 12.95332
Sum squared resid 353033.5 Schwarz criterion 13.29460
Log likelihood -154.9165 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.04798
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic 1.191830 Prob. F(4,20) 0.3448
Obs*R-squared 4.812108 Prob. Chi-Square(4) 0.3071
Scaled explained SS 1.900990 Prob. Chi-Square(4) 0.7540
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares
84
Date: 01/04/20 Time: 07:28 Sample: 1992 2016
|
Included observations: 25
|
|
|
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
22153.42
|
5924.288 3.739423
|
0.0013
|
|
LPPTN^2
|
-91.40968
|
96.53994 -0.946859
|
0.3550
|
|
LPIBH^2
|
-0.057120
|
0.044585 -1.281145
|
0.2148
|
|
LTXINF^2
|
-6.58E-05
|
0.000177 -0.371908
|
0.7139
|
|
LMM^2
|
4.71E-17
|
2.76E-17 1.704239
|
0.1038
|
|
R-squared
|
0.192484
|
Mean dependent var
|
14652.45
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.030981
|
S.D. dependent var
|
16615.82
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
16356.41
|
Akaike info criterion
|
22.41948
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
5.35E+09
|
Schwarz criterion
|
22.66326
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-275.2435
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
22.48710
|
|
F-statistic
|
1.191830
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.236968
|
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.344836
|
|
|
|
ANNEXE 3
|
|
|
|
|
Estimation Command:
|
|
|
|
=========================
LS LTCH C LPPTN LPIBH LTXINF LMM
Estimation Equation:
=========================
LTCH = C(1) + C(2)*LPPTN + C(3)*LPIBH + C(4)*LTXINF + C(5)*LMM
Substituted Coefficients:
=========================
LTCH = -10.957596851 + 17.2174083778*LPPTN + 1.80040292806*LPIBH
+ 0.0485749181651*LTXINF - 1.80464258989e-08*LMM
Null Hypothesis: D(LTCH) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=5)
t-Statistic
Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock DF-GLS test statistic
-4.447647
Test critical values: 1% level -3.770000
5% level -3.190000
10% level -2.890000
*Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock (1996, Table 1)
Warning: Test critical values calculated for 50 observations and
may not be accurate for a sample size of 23
DF-GLS Test Equation on GLS Detrended Residuals
Dependent Variable: D(GLSRESID)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/05/18 Time: 14:05
Sample (adjusted): 1994 2016
Included observations: 23 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
GLSRESID(-1) -0.947297 0.212988 -4.447647 0.0002
85
|
R-squared
|
0.473450
|
Mean dependent var
|
0.415909
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.473450
|
S.D. dependent var
|
201.2123
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
146.0073
|
Akaike info criterion
|
12.84769
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
468998.7
|
Schwarz criterion
|
12.89706
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-146.7485
|
Hannan-Quinn criter.
|
12.86011
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.872651
|
|
|
|
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
|
|
|
|
F-statistic
|
1.189716
|
Prob. F(4,20)
|
0.3457
|
|
Obs*R-squared
|
4.805211
|
Prob. Chi-Square(4)
|
0.3079
|
|
Scaled explained SS
|
1.896229
|
Prob. Chi-Square(4)
|
0.7548
|
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 10/05/18
Time: 13:56 Sample: 1992 2016
| 
