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Politique de change et équilibre extérieur en rd congo, une analyse empirique par la modélisation var de 1988 à  2020


par Olivier Mopepe
Université de Kinshasa - Licence 2020
  

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ANNEXE 6 : DECOMPOSITION DE LA VARIANCE DE L'ERREUR

Variance Decomposition of VRC:

 

 

 

 

Period

S.E.

VRC

VSBC

VTCH

TCR

TINF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

3.082126

100.0000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

2

3.542165

87.14594

11.35491

0.049624

1.437382

0.012142

3

3.863430

74.14458

19.54889

4.957170

1.332559

0.016798

4

3.881847

73.80745

19.76984

5.076698

1.327772

0.018242

5

3.908539

72.82266

19.50574

5.979985

1.673620

0.017994

6

3.933164

72.02625

20.38813

5.906488

1.658794

0.020338

7

4.072696

72.33814

20.37625

5.662690

1.603742

0.019177

8

4.079853

72.12631

20.43584

5.675039

1.740861

0.021959

9

4.130283

71.11554

21.44026

5.702189

1.720371

0.021633

10

4.135625

71.13433

21.38742

5.734496

1.719857

0.023899

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Variance Decomposition of VSBC:

 

 

 

 

Period

S.E.

VRC

VSBC

VTCH

TCR

TINF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

3.577968

10.85069

89.14931

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

2

3.613470

10.90241

87.40627

1.476938

0.213837

0.000541

3

3.805464

9.997225

85.75003

2.837089

1.414168

0.001492

4

3.812315

9.977195

85.59971

2.973260

1.444682

0.005154

5

4.594403

37.64887

59.20980

2.142544

0.995169

0.003623

6

4.862302

40.18138

56.67302

2.092860

1.044383

0.008359

7

5.059986

37.17416

58.05822

3.773737

0.984680

0.009203

8

5.068510

37.11316

58.07471

3.812875

0.989251

0.009997

9

5.100946

37.15040

57.33851

4.348715

1.152403

0.009972

10

5.117508

36.96004

57.52285

4.344423

1.159006

0.013688

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Variance Decomposition of VTCH:

 

 

 

 

Period

S.E.

VRC

VSBC

VTCH

TCR

TINF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

8.945717

15.23404

1.550063

83.21590

0.000000

0.000000

2

9.846087

14.65697

3.667283

72.74373

0.632258

8.299764

3

12.88462

10.79200

3.382020

77.96281

2.902800

4.960366

4

13.95591

9.482843

9.682248

66.94763

6.075908

7.811369

5

14.05139

9.617476

9.707994

66.21537

6.720407

7.738752

6

14.84081

8.671024

17.11142

60.74589

6.522550

6.949124

7

14.95808

9.242676

16.92657

60.38609

6.603770

6.840890

8

15.54915

8.620252

20.91191

57.54572

6.589250

6.332870

9

15.70363

8.914735

21.06899

57.19109

6.602546

6.222647

10

16.01666

11.21694

20.76600

55.44850

6.578036

5.990528

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Variance Decomposition of TCR:

 

 

 

 

Period

S.E.

VRC

VSBC

VTCH

TCR

TINF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

0.024755

2.465267

12.53618

52.83879

32.15976

0.000000

2

0.037214

6.680108

5.808425

58.43337

29.00148

0.076625

3

0.040569

8.325816

4.895193

58.95490

27.62852

0.195572

4

0.045426

10.74049

11.04937

53.75639

24.28588

0.167875

5

0.050705

15.74317

14.73681

47.41111

21.97249

0.136407

6

0.053659

17.34273

17.67464

43.99955

20.85284

0.130234

7

0.055178

16.88994

21.04462

42.05046

19.85253

0.162446

8

0.055966

16.86663

22.62662

41.01051

19.31466

0.181578

9

0.055991

16.85565

22.65714

40.98800

19.29848

0.200731

10

0.056376

16.66890

23.42840

40.57649

19.11050

0.215714

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Variance Decomposition of TINF:

 

 

 

 

Period

S.E.

VRC

VSBC

VTCH

TCR

TINF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1.062267

42.31554

5.448176

38.73502

2.804447

10.69681

2

1.730549

46.40070

2.090108

42.73310

1.561199

7.214896

3

3.350985

22.93239

4.051425

64.36875

4.543588

4.103845

4

3.886543

17.07768

12.68157

51.23761

9.213788

9.789349

5

4.008704

16.06618

13.65751

50.44540

10.53743

9.293484

6

4.118274

15.24990

16.48132

48.76655

10.63999

8.862239

7

4.186872

15.49465

17.29307

47.97731

10.65734

8.577634

8

4.441487

14.61157

22.99993

44.69074

10.07068

7.627088

9

4.514422

14.28584

22.80186

45.41127

10.11340

7.387628

10

4.600155

14.28010

23.75453

44.66860

10.15063

7.146144

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cholesky Ordering: VRC VSBC VTCH TCR TINF

 

 

 

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