3.6 Discussion
Based on the model fitted in this work, we have estimated the
values of parameters â1, â2, c, á, è, ø, p and
cf with three sets of data, the initial values of E,
Id and Ind have
been also taking into account. Figure (3.1) shows that the model fitted the
data well, this strongly reveals that our lack of knowledge and understanding
of the long community transmission have been in the population (as at the time
of the first case index announced on March 06, 2020) could harm our knowledge
of the real burden of disease COVID-19 in Yaounde and Douala. Therefore, very
strict measures must be taken to identify the others as possible, through
aggressive screening and testing of the population, especially for asymptomatic
cases and application of other control measures.
Master's thesis II * Molecular Atomic Physics and
Biophysics Laboratory-UYI * YAMENI STEINLEN DONAT D
(c)2021
GENERAL CONCLUSION AND
OUTLOOK
In summary in this work, we aimed to address the impact of
different non-pharmaceutical control measures on the population dynamics of the
novel Coronavirus 2019(COVID-19) in Yaounde and Douala ( Cameroon), using a
formulated mathematical model. Using the available data, since its first
reported case on March 06, 2020, we developed a predictive tool for the
cumulative numbers of reported cases and active case in Yaounde and Douala, we
also estimated the basic reproduction numbers of the epidemic in the above
mentioned cities in Cameroon. Using US simulations, we show the effect of
control measures, particularly joint social distancing, face mask use, and case
detection (via tracing and subsequent testing) on the dynamics of COVID-19. We
also provided predictions for active detectable and non-detectable cases for
different levels of control measures being implemented. Numerical simulations
of the model show that if at least 50% of the population complies with the
social distancing regulation with about 50% of the population effectively using
mask wearing in public, the disease will eventually die out in the population
and that if we can increase the case detection rate among infected individuals
to about 0.8 by day with about 50% of the population complying with the social
distancing rules, this will result in a sharp decrease in the disease incidence
and prevalence of COVID-19.
Therefore, to reduce the spread of COVID-19 at the community
level, this study urgently recommends very strict measures to be taken by
policy makers and authorities to identify new cases, through aggressive
screening and testing of the population and strict enforcement of the use of
face masks and distancing rules.
45
In our future work, we intend:
3.6. DISCUSSION 46
Master's thesis II * Molecular Atomic Physics and
Biophysics Laboratory-UYI * YAMENI STEINLEN DONAT D
(c)2021
* To study other forms modeling of control measures such as that
of COVID-19 vaccines. * To analyse the intra-hote dynamics of COVID-19.
47
Bibliographic references
[1] Sene N. SIR Epidemic model with Mittag-Leffler fractional
derivative. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2020;137:109833.
[2] Rothana H, Byrareddy S. The epidemiology and pathogenesis
of coronavirus disease ( COVID-19) outbreak. J Autoimmun 2020;109:102433.
[3] World Health Organisation et al. Coronavirus disease 2019
(covid-19): situation report, 72. 2020.
[4] Coronavirus nombre de cas au Cameroun.
https://
www.coronavirus-statistiques.com/stats-pays/coronavirus-nombre-de-cas-au-Cameroun;
(consulté le 06 Septembre 2021).
[5] Nkague N, Mann M, Manga T, Mbang J. Modeling analysis of
a SEIQR epidemic model to assess the impact of undetected case, and predict the
early peack of the COVID-19 outbreak in Cameroon. Research square, 2020.
[6] Nofe Al-Souad, Meir Shillor Departement of Mathemetics
and Statistics Oakland University Rochester, MI 48309-4401,USA.
[7] Coronavirus et covid-19. Inserm-La science pour santé
https://www.inserm.fr/actualites-et-evenements/actualites;
( consulté le 20 Juin 2021).
[8] Coronavirus-Bulletin of the Atomic scientists.
https://thebulletin.org/coronavirus;
( consulté le 13 Juin 2021).
[9] Image: rirborne transmission of covid-19.The BMJ.
https://image.app.goo.gl/HW5iTijgmYDPvSE68;
( consulté le 29 Mai 2021).
[10]
BIBLIOGRAPHIC REFERENCES 48
Master's thesis II * Molecular Atomic Physics and
Biophysics Laboratory-UYI * YAMENI STEINLEN DONAT D
(c)2021
Image: Les médecins camerounais déploient une
unité mobile de test covid-19
https://images.app.goo.gl/UeTs53KJsfBrWjAc8;
(consulté le 16 Juin 2021).
[11] COVID-19-Causes, Symtoptômes, Traitement,
Diagnostic-salutbonjour.ca.
https://resourcessante.salutbonjour.ca/condition/getcondition/covid-19;
( consulté le 29 Mai 2021).
[12] Impact du coronavirus sur l'économie: au Cameroun,
https://www.investiraucameroun.com;
11 Juin 2020.
[13] Human coronavirus 229E-wikipedia
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/human-coronavirus-229E
Août 2021.
[14] Coronavirus: Suivi en direct des cas en Afrique-BBC;
https://www.bbc.com/afrique/resources
(consulté le 20 Juin 2021 ).
[15] Covid-19: la létalité du virus augmente en
Afrique, continent jusqu'ici plutôt épidémiologie;
https://www.Ici.fr/international/covid-19-coronavirus-pandémie
(consulté le 20 juin 2021).
[16] Brauer F, Castillo-Chavez C, Mubayi A, Towers S. Some
models for epidemic of vector-transmitted diseases. Infect Dis Model
2016;1:78-9.
[17] Kermack W, Mckendrick A. A contribution to the mathematical
theory epidemics. proc R soc A 1927;115(772):700-21.
[18] Yousefpour A, Jahansbahi H, Bekiros S, Optimal of the
novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak. Chaos Solitons Fractals
2020;136:109883.
[19] Xue I, Jing S, Miller J, Sun W, Li H, Estrada-Franco J,
Hyman J, Zhu H. A data-driven network model for the emerging COVID-19 epidemics
in Wuhan, Toronto and Italy. Math Biosci 2020:108391.
[20] Hethcote H. The mathematic of infecious diseases. SIAM
Rev 2000;42(4):599-653.
[21] Tang B, Brangazzi N, Li Q, Tang S, Xiao Y, Wu J. An
updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the nouve coronavirus
(2019-nCoV). Infect Dis Model 2020;5:225-48.
[22]
BIBLIOGRAPHIC REFERENCES 49
Master's thesis II * Molecular Atomic Physics and
Biophysics Laboratory-UYI * YAMENI STEINLEN DONAT D
(c)2021
Crokidakis N. COVID-19 Spreading in Rio de janeiro, Brazil: do
the policies of social isolation really work? Chaos Solitons Fractals
2020;136:109930.
[23] Okuonghae D, Omame A. Analyses of a mathematical model
for COVID-19 population dynamics in Lagos, Nigeria. Chaos, Solitons and
Fractals 2020;139:110032.
[24] Van den Driessch P, Watmough J. Reproduction numbers and
sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartimental models of disease
transmission. Math Biosci 2002;180:29-48.
[25] Gashirai T, Musekwa-hove S, Lolika P, Mushayabassa S.
Global stability and optimal control analysis of a foot-and-mouth disease model
with vaccine failure and environmental transmission? Chaos Solitons Fractals
2020;132:109568.
[26] Okuonghae D. Lyapunov function and global properties of
some tuberculosis models. J Appel Math Comput 2015;48:421-43.
[27] La Salle J, Lefschetz S. The stability of dynamical
systems. Philadelphia: SIAM; 1976.
[28] McCall J. Genetic algorithms for modelling and
optimisation. J Comput Appl Math 2005;184:205-22.
[29] Remy P, Xutong W, Michaela P, Zhanwei D, Spencer J,
Michael P, Clay J, and Lauren A. Covid-19 healthcare demand projections:
Austin, texas, 2020.
[30] Coronavirus dans le monde et par pays. http://
coronavirus. politologue.com/ coronavirus-Cameroun.cm; accessed: May 2020.
[31] Coronavirus-ce-qu'il-faut-savoir;jun2021.
https://www.doctissimo.fr/sante/epidemie/coronavirus-chinois;
(consulte le 21 Juin 2021).
[32] Blower S, Dowlatabadi H. Sensitivity and uncertainty
analysis of complex models of disease transmission: an HIV model, as an
example, Int. Stat. Rev. 1994;2:229-243.
[33] Marino S, Hogue I, Ray C, and Kirschner D. A methodology
for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in systems biology.
Journal of Theoretical Biology. 2008;254:178-196.
[34] Covid-19.
https://www.futura-sciences.com/sante/definitions/coronavirus-covid-19-18585;(
consulté le 05 Juin 2021).
| 
