Appendix E
MDG calculations
The following tables were used to calculate how much money would
be needed in order
to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in
Cap-Haitien.
E.1 Population and coverage estimates
Using the division in zones performed in Section 5.1 and the
coverage data from Section
5.2.1, it is possible to derive estimates regarding
achievement of the MDGs. Population data was obtained from one of the few
sources available, from 20031; the city centre and two peripheral
areas were voluntarily ignored, given their higher wealth level. The population
figures group all similar areas together; population is extrapolated forward
and backwards with an assumed growth rate of 4 % (suggested by GTIH staff).
The MDG 7 states «Halve the proportion of people without access to safe
sanitation by
2015»; this proportion has to be calculated using 1990
figures, from which the MDGs were set.
«Coverage» is an indication of the coverage of
«improved sanitation» as defined by the
Water and Sanitation Programme; figures differ slightly from the
survey results to reflect
the variety of the zones: in particular, Petite-Anse
comprises many medium-income houses which have sanitation, like the
Cités. «Access» indicates the number of persons with access to
improved sanitation. The coverage in 1990 was estimated given the
researcher's knowledge of the sanitation situation at this time, using
indications from the MSPP staff; the coverage was lower given the lack of
previous sanitation programmes and some emerging zones, except in the
Cités where the communal latrines were in much better state than now.
It appears that the current coverage in those areas is around
28 %, coincidentally the same as in 1990, which means that the number of
families with improved sanitation has progressed (due to sanitation programmes
and private acquisition), their proportion has remained stagnant. In order to
achieve the MDGs, the 72 % proportion without
1 Estimates of population data by zones and by gender,
done by Oxfam within the DIPECHO project in
2003.
Rémi Kaupp E. MDG calculations
Table E.1: Population and latrine coverage estimates
|
Area
|
A
|
B
|
C
|
D
|
E
|
Total
|
|
Population in 2003
|
70,000
|
75,000
|
40,000
|
40,000
|
100,000
|
325,000
|
|
Coverage in 2003
|
3 %
|
40 %
|
10 %
|
10 %
|
50 %
|
28 %
|
|
Access in 2003
|
2,100
|
30,000
|
4,000
|
4,000
|
50,000
|
90,100
|
|
Population in 1990
|
41,174
|
44,115
|
23,528
|
23,528
|
58,820
|
191,165
|
|
Coverage in 1990
|
0 %
|
24 %
|
0 %
|
5 %
|
70 %
|
28 %
|
|
Access in 1990
|
0
|
10,588
|
0
|
1,176
|
41,174
|
52,938
|
|
Population in 2015
|
112,072
|
120,077
|
64,041
|
64,041
|
160,103
|
520,335
|
|
Access target by 2015
|
71,726
|
76,850
|
40,986
|
40,986
|
102,466
|
333,015
|
|
Additional access by 2015
|
69,626
|
46,850
|
36,986
|
36,986
|
52,466
|
242,915
|
|
Additional families
|
8,703
|
5,856
|
4,623
|
4,623
|
6,558
|
30,364
|
Areas type A are similar to Shada, B to Petite-Anse, C to Mansui,
D to Bas-Ravine,
and E to the Cités.
sanitation has to be halved by 2015, i.e. there must be only 36 %
without sanitation or
64 % of the 2015 population with improved sanitation. This is
reflected by the «Access target by 2015» line, with the
«additional access» line representing the difference with
the current situation.
By assuming an average family size of 8, the number of families
to provide with sanitation can be obtained, which is also the number of private
latrines. Finally, about
30,000 latrines have to be built in the next 8 years.
E.2 Cost of a latrine
Table E.2 below shows details of the cost of a latrine,
according to various sources. Main sources were local masons who were
interviewed during the survey, and engineers working for GTIH in sanitation who
had experience of construction projects; secondary sources are estimates by
inhabitants, and indications by latrine owners. Some prices are standard over
the whole city, such as bags of cement, but other prices seem to vary more
consequently with the zones and the person interviewed.
A price of around US$ 300 was most often quoted, with a maximum
at US$ 375. It should be noted that labour cost, while originally calculated
per day, is often paid «for
the work done» independently of the length of time it might
take; this is particularly the case for subsidised programmes.
Rémi Kaupp E. MDG calculations
|
Element
|
Price (US$)
|
|
Standard
|
Minimum
|
Maximum
|
|
Digging a 2 m deep pit
|
37
|
15
|
60
|
|
1 bag of cement
|
5.9
|
|
|
|
1 load of sand
|
37.5
|
|
|
|
1 load of gravel
|
37.5
|
|
|
|
140 cement blocks (pit)
|
52.5
|
|
|
|
120 cement blocks (superstructure)
|
45
|
|
|
|
3 sheets of corrugated iron (roof)
|
6
|
5
|
10
|
|
1 seat
|
12.5
|
7.5
|
|
|
1 PVC ventilation pipe
|
6
|
5
|
|
|
Overall cost of materials
|
203
|
80
|
270
|
|
Labour (per day)
|
12
|
7.5
|
22
|
|
Total cost
|
312.5
|
170
|
375
|
Table E.2: Cost of some elements of a «standard»
latrine
E.3 Total cost to achieve the
MDGs
Using the prices and the number of families to serve as shown
above, it is possible
to calculate how much subsidy is needed if those latrines are to
be fully funded by a project, in order to achieve the MDGs.
Table E.3: Total cost to achieve the MDGS in Cap-Haitien
|
Cost of one latrine
|
Total cost
|
|
US$ 150
|
US$ 4,554,600
|
|
US$ 200
|
US$ 6,072,800
|
|
US$ 250
|
US$ 7,591,000
|
|
US$ 300
|
US$ 9,109,200
|
|
US$ 350
|
US$ 10,627,400
|
It should be noted that even by providing this, it would still
leave 36% of the popula-
tion without latrines, i.e. more than 187,000 people.
Rémi Kaupp
|
|
