III- Conceptual and Methodological chapter
1) Theoretical approaches
First and foremost, I would like to highlight that the
theoretical framework underpinning this thesis is multidisciplinary. This
approach enables me to analyze the EU's energy diversification by integrating
perspectives that address both structural dynamics and agent-level
interactions, while combining technical, legal, theoretical, and practical
dimensions.
It is particularly relevant to examine the role of European
institutions in international cooperation and norm-setting within the context
of the energy market (Herranz-Surrallés & Fairbrass, 2021).
Neoliberal institutionalism offers a lens to analyze the functioning of
supranational bodies to mediate MS interests and to understand the interaction
between regulatory frameworks and the implementation of national policies
(Wigell, 2015).
In order to understand the pressures exerted on EU Member
State governments and the Union itself, it has been important to investigate
the role of businesses in shaping energy policies, which can be explored
through the lens of political economy (Fouquet, 2016; Van de Graaf &
Sovacool, 2020).
Finally, we must keep in mind that the energy transition is
primarily driven by climate change and environmental concerns. It was therefore
essential to examine the long-term commitments of the EU and MS to achieving
the Green Deal objectives and to explore how these commitments influence the
shift toward renewable energy, particularly through Green Transition and
Sustainability Theories (Zhang & Kong, 2022).
2) Operationalization of key concepts
To structure my analysis, I operationalize the three key
concepts guiding this thesis: energy security, energy equity and environmental
sustainability. Energy security, as defined previously, allows me to examine,
through European and national policies, how states and the EU have ensured a
stable energy supply for citizens and industries (Rodriguez-Fernandez et al.,
2022). I also sought to understand the implementation of energy policies,
specifically how EU legislative directives have been adapted to national
strategies, and vice versa. Energy equity
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refers the accessibility and affordability of energy supply
across the population, environmental sustainability is the process in which
nations decarbonize and manage other environmental issues (World Energy
Council, 2024). Next, energy diversification, the central concept of this
thesis, is the strategic broadening of energy supply sources in the context of
energy transition. This is analyzed through national investments in renewable
energy, LNG infrastructure, and other alternative energy sources (De Rosa et
al., 2022). Finally, geopolitical influences were also examined, particularly
at the EU's level, and the pressures that shaped energy policy decisions
(Kuzemko et al., 2024).
This thesis understands «implementation» as a causal
chain from EU-level inputs to national instruments and observable outputs.
· Inputs (EU): REPowerEU, RED III, the revised EED,
AggregateEU and joint purchasing, ACER guidance, and EU financing
instruments.
· Instruments (national): NECP updates, regulatory
frameworks, interconnection projects, FSRU/LNG procurement.
· Outputs (observable): changes in import dependency,
electricity carbon intensity, renewable energy share, interconnection capacity,
and indicators of affordability/security (price volatility, curtailments,
outages).
Methodologically, I use process tracing to link specific EU
inputs to national instruments, complemented by document analysis and
semi-structured interviews. This makes causal mechanisms explicit.
3) Methodological framework a) Choice of
Research Strategy
To effectively address my research question, this thesis
adopts a qualitative and comparative approach. This dual methodology is
particularly valuable for gaining a deep understanding of how MS have
implemented EU directives on energy diversification in the context of
heightened geopolitical tensions caused by the war. The qualitative approach is
well-suited for exploring complex and context-specific phenomena, as it enables
the identification of non-quantifiable factors such as political priorities,
internal dynamics, and external pressures that influence the implementation of
energy policy (Clark et al., 2021). By adopting an inductive method, I want to
ensure that conclusions emerge from the specific contexts of the selected case
studies.
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b) Comparative Case Study and Case Selection
Comparative approach
The design of the comparative case study adopted in this
research is grounded in the methodological principles outlined by Yin (2017)
and Gerring (2004). The comparative case study methodology provides a robust
framework for analyzing the nuanced implementation of energy diversification
policies across different national contexts ("Quick Start to Case Study
Research," 2010; Yin, 2017). It combines both descriptive and explanatory
elements, enabling a thorough understanding of the challenges and adaptations
specific to the case-study (France, Spain, and Germany), while maintaining
theoretical relevance for other EU Member States facing similar issues. This
methodology enables an exploration of how the EU balances its supranational
objectives with national interests, thereby identifying recurring patterns and
divergences in policy implementation (Yin, 2017). It also facilitates a deeper
examination of institutional dynamics, geopolitical pressures, and policy
responses in each case.
Case Study Selection
The comparative approach provides a better understanding of
the national implementation of EU energy diversification policies by
highlighting both similarities and differences. It thus ensures understanding
of how the EU reconciles its supranational objectives with the interests of MS,
and identifies recurring trends and divergences in policy implementation (Yin,
2017; Ivankova & Creswell, 2009). This approach also facilitates a closer
examination of institutional dynamics, geopolitical pressures and policy
responses in each case.
I have carefully chosen to focus on Spain, France and Germany
according to their distinct energy profiles, and their strategic importance in
the EU energy landscape. To begin with, Germany illustrates well the
difficulties faced by certain MS in adapting to the consequences of the
Russia-Ukraine conflict, being historically dependent on Russian gas. Germany's
transition to LNG and renewables as part of its «Energiewende»
initiative offers interesting prospects for balancing energy security and
sustainability (Scholten & Bosman, 2018). Secondly, I opted to investigate
the situation in France, a country with a strong commitment to nuclear power.
The French strategy offers a unique perspective on how traditional energy
sources coexist with the EU's decarbonization objectives
(Herranz-Surrallés, 2021). Last but not least, I found Spain of great
interest for its potential leadership in developing renewable
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energies, and its geographical position allows for an
exploration of how its growing dependence on North African gas imports
highlights the geopolitical dimensions of energy diversification evolves (Omar
& Grätz, 2022).
c) Sample Design
Regarding participant recruitment, I chose a combination of
two non-probability sampling methods to maximize the quality of the data
collected and address practical needs of availability, based on the work of
Clark and his collaborators (2021).
Firstly, convenience sampling facilitates the rapid
recruitment of accessible and relevant participants for the research, based on
their availability and connection to the topic. While this method limits the
generalization of findings to a broader population, it is pragmatic for gaining
access to energy policy experts. Adapted to the time and resource constraints
of a master thesis project, it ensures an efficient and targeted approach
(Clark et al., 2021). Secondly, the snowball sampling method is used to expand
the network of participants. This approach relies on an initial group of
identified respondents who will be invited to recommend other relevant experts
(Clark et al., 2021).
In this regard, candidates are recruited through the
professional online platform LinkedIn, by networking at events related to the
EU energy transition, such as the «January Energy Breakfast by SEA -
LNG» and «Nuclear Europe», and through my personal network.
LinkedIn facilitates the identification and contact of professionals with
specific expertise in energy policy, working within EU institutions and from
each of the targeted country. I have first targeted institutions and companies,
then looked at the positions and the employees. Additionally, I used my
personal and professional network already established, which includes contacts
in the energy policy field, developed through prior projects and lectures I
attended.
In France, the targeted institutions include the French
delegation of the S&D group in the European Parliament, the Ministry of
Energy Transition, the Energy Department of the French government, and the
Ministry of Environment. The Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER) of the
European Commission and NuclearEurope is also relevant. Key positions include
advisers and policymakers specializing in energy, climate diplomacy, carbon
markets, and sustainable strategies. In Germany, the targeted institutions
include the European Parliament,
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the Ecologic Institute, the Federal Ministry for Economic
Affairs and Climate Action, and Agora Energiewende. Positions range from energy
and climate policy advisers to Members of the European Parliament (MEPs),
accredited parliamentary assistants, and policy officers. Research-oriented
roles affiliated with think tanks underline Germany's analytical and
forward-looking approach to energy transition and climate justice. In Spain,
the targeted institutions include the European Parliament, the Ministry for
Ecological Transition, APPA (Association of Renewable Energy Companies),
think-thanks, and RWE Renewables Iberia.
The interviews were conducted with two experts from the
European Commission's DG ENER focusing on the EU and Germany, a representative
of NuclearEurope focusing on the EU, France and Germany, and a researcher from
the Elcano Royal Institute think tank focusing on Spain.
d) Interviews
For data collection, I opted for semi-structured interviews,
which are based on an interview guide organized around key themes, giving
interviewees the freedom to elaborate on their answers or introduce new
elements. As noted by Bernard (2006) and Horton et al. (2004), this approach is
particularly relevant for exploring motivations, behaviors, and institutional
dynamics. Semi-structured interviews enable a nuanced understanding of
participants' perceptions and experiences (Fontana & Frey, 2005). This
method is therefore ideal for examining the complex processes associated with
the implementation of energy policies, providing individual perspectives on
institutional challenges and international dynamics. The questions are
structured around four thematic: (1) Geopolitical matters, (2) EU Policies, (3)
Companies and market, (4) Energy transition, (5) Energy mix. It is through
these thematic that I then analyzed the concepts of energy diversification,
transition, equity, security, and environmental sustainability. This thesis
draws on three interviews conducted with four participants, each providing
input on the three national case studies and on the European level. The
questions addressed in the interviews were tailored to the expertise of the
participants.
e) Ethical Considerations
Ethical standards are an integral part of my work. Key
measures include informed consent, where participants were provided with
detailed consent forms outlining their rights and the
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purpose of the research. I made sure to ensure the anonymity
and confidentiality of the participants by anonymizing personal information and
securely storing the data in a password-protected folder, to which only I have
access. Additionally, all data are deleted upon submission of the thesis.
f) Limitations
First, the scope of the study is limited by the focus on three
countries, which restricts the generalizability of the results to the entire
EU. Moreover, biases in the data may arise, particularly because the responses
from the interviewees often reflect subjective viewpoints, influenced by the
roles and experiences of the participants. Comparative constraints also
represent an important limitation. The variability in data availability and the
contextual differences between the countries studied complicate the possibility
of making direct comparisons. Finally, as Gerring (2004) observes, while case
studies can shed light on similar phenomena in other contexts, their aim is not
to produce statistical generalizations. Comparative case studies, by nature,
present limitations, especially when it comes to generalizing results. In my
research, the results are context-specific, and cannot be generalized to all EU
Member States. While the findings are not statistically representative, my aim
is to provide in-depth, context-specific information for the countries studied.
These limitations are mitigated through the use of methodological triangulation
and the transparent presentation of results.
4) Methodology of Analysis
The aim of the analysis is to compare the responses to the
Russia-Ukraine war in terms of diversification of energy sources, and the EU's
policy strategic implementation in the three selected countries. For the
semi-structured interviews, I apply an inductive analysis of the collected data
to identify patterns and recurring ideas, allowing unexpected themes to emerge
(Caulfield, 2023). The thematic analysis provides a structured approach to
coding central themes, combining similar codes to create overarching
categories. This process is particularly relevant for identifying relationships
between themes (e.g., a correlation between energy independence and investments
in renewables).
The first step in the analysis is to code the interview
transcripts using NVivo, a software program specifically designed for
qualitative data analysis. NVivo facilitates systematic coding
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and subsequent thematic analysis, allowing for the
identification of recurring patterns in the texts and the construction of an
analytical framework, including the emergence of unexpected themes. This
process is particularly useful for this thesis, which aims to gather expert
opinions and highlight potential gaps in official reports. Thus, the following
themes were identified:
· EU strategy to reduce dependency:
· EU energy policies and legislation
· Nuclear and EU
· France strategy and energy mix
· Spain strategy and energy mix
· Germany strategy energy mix
Once the themes have been identified, each case are analyzed
independently to examine its specific initiatives. This includes the following
sub categories:
· EU: Historical break with Russia, REPowerEU plan,
AggregateEU, Sanctions, Renewable expansion, Nuclear Debate
· France: Nuclear, strategic autonomy, renewable
energies, hydrogen policy, EU positioning, Risks
· Germany: Pre-war dependency, renewable energies,
nuclear ambivalence, social backlash, EU positioning
· Spain: Renewable leadership, hydrogen hub, nuclear
phase-out, interconnexions, challenges
This intra-case analysis provides us to examine the recurrent
patterns identified for each case separately, considering their specific
context and the implementation of EU energy policies (Ayres et al., 2003).
The thematic analysis also aims to compare the coded data in
order to assess how each country integrates European directives into its
national policies and to identify any tensions or contradictions between
national approaches and EU objectives. This leads us to the final step of the
analysis: the comparative cross-case analysis, a research design that compares
different groups or cases at a single point in time to identify meaningful
differences or patterns between
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them (Ivankova & Creswell, 2009). To do this, the
identified themes are compared to pinpoint common challenges these countries
face, as well as the unique approaches they have adopted to address these
challenges. For instance, all three countries experienced difficulties
post-2022 related to energy dependence, but their responses likely differed.
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