BIBLIOGRAPHIE
OUVRAGES GENERAUX
- BEAUD Michel, l'art de la thèse, la
découverte, Paris 1980.
- BOURRINET. J, les échanges internationaux,
PUF, Paris 1992.
- SAMUESON. Alain : économie internationale
contemporaine, PUG, Grenoble, septembre 2003.
- GUILLAUMONT Patrick, économie du
développement : dynamique internationale du
développement, PUF, Paris, 1985.
ARTICLES
- Arlène Alpha, Benoît Faucheux, Vincent Fautrel,
Bénédicte Hermlin : les négociations OMC et APE
sur l'agriculture pour une nouvelle coordination des positions ACP,
Eclairage, vol 4, No 6, 2005.
- ICTSD : négociation de l'OMC
préalablement à Hong Kong, priorités et défis pour
les ACP, Eclairage, vol 4, No 5.
- Anwarul Hoda : stratégies pour les pays en
développement dans les négociations sur l'agriculture
à l'OMC, passerelles, VOL 6, No 1, 2005.
- Bhagirath lal Das : négociations sur
l'agriculture et les services de l'OMC : propositions pour les pays
en développement, passerelles, vol 2, No 3, 2000.
MEMOIRE
- IBRAHIM Mahaboubou : contribution des exportations
agricoles à la croissance économique : cas du
Niger, mémoire de maîtrise en économie
générale à l'université Abdou Moumouni de Niamey,
année 2003-2004.
- SORGHO Zakaria : l'impact des subventions sur les
recettes d'exportation du Burkina Faso : la recette
cotonnière, mémoire de maîtrise, 2003-2004, Burkina
Faso.
- OUMAROU DIALLO Abdoul Karim ; impact du commerce
extérieur sur la croissance économique : cas du
Niger, mémoire de maîtrise en économie
générale à l'université Abdou Moumouni de Niamey,
année 2002-2003.
AUTRES DOCUMENTS
- PNUD : Rapport mondial sur le développement
humain 2005 : la coopération internationale à la
croisée des chemins ; l'aide, le commerce et la
sécurité dans un monde marqué par des
inégalités, Economica, paris, 2005.
SITES WEB UTILISES
- www.uemoa.int
- www.ictsd.org/africodev
Liste des tableaux
Tableau 1 : Produit brut
régional (84 milliards de dollars)
Tableau 2 : Poids du secteur dans
l'économie des Etats de l'Afrique de l'Ouest en 1999
Tableau 3 : Evolution de la
production céréalière au Burkina Faso (en milliers de
tonnes)
Tableau 4 : Evolution de la
production céréalière (en tonnes) du Niger
Tableau 5 : Principales productions
en milliers de tonnes au Burkina Faso
Tableau 6 : Evolution des
productions des principales cultures de rente au Niger (1995 à 2004) en
tonnes
Tableau 7 : Progression des
composantes des taux de change réels Niger-Nigeria
Tableau 8 : Secteur agricole
global
Tableau 9 : Les variables et leurs
signes attendus
Tableau 10 : Résultat du test
de normalité
Tableau 11 : Résultat du test
de stationnarité
Tableau 12 : Résultat du
modèle de long terme
Tableau 13 : Résultat du
modèle à correction d'erreur
Tableau 14 : Test de Breush
Goldfrey
Liste des graphiques
Graphique 1 : Subventions à
l'exportation
Graphique 2 : Importations et
exportations agricoles totales
Graphique 3 : Taux de change nominal
parallèle du FCFA/Naira et déflateur agricole du Nigeria
Graphique 4 :
Compétitivité des produits agricoles vis-à-vis du
Nigeria
Graphique 5 : Composantes du taux de
change réel pour le secteur agricole
Graphique 6 : Evolution de la
balance commerciale agricole du Niger
Graphique 7 : Effets des subventions
du Nord
Annexes
Annexe 1 : Normalité des
séries
|
LPIBR
|
LEXPAGRI
|
LINV
|
LPOP
|
|
Mean
|
1705.634
|
827.7561
|
1030.512
|
841.9512
|
|
Median
|
1766.000
|
823.0000
|
1114.000
|
859.0000
|
|
Maximum
|
1841.000
|
991.0000
|
1250.000
|
925.0000
|
|
Minimum
|
1524.000
|
669.0000
|
0.000000
|
0.000000
|
|
Std. Dev.
|
104.7391
|
73.71526
|
210.4353
|
139.1797
|
|
Skewness
|
-0.362848
|
0.273891
|
-2.920108
|
-5.568929
|
|
1.461271
|
2.841433
|
14.96961
|
34.33461
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jarque-Bera
|
4.944466
|
0.555565
|
303.0237
|
1889.263
|
|
Probability
|
0.084396
|
0.757462
|
0.000000
|
0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Observations
|
41
|
41
|
41
|
41
|
|
|
|
|
|
Annexe 2 : Racine unitaire ADF LPIBr
en différnce seconde
|
ADF Test Statistic
|
-6.481552
|
1% Critical Value*
|
-3.6171
|
|
|
5% Critical Value
|
-2.9422
|
|
|
10% Critical Value
|
-2.6092
|
|
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit
root.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LPIBR,3)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 09/17/06 Time: 23:31
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1964 2000
|
|
Included observations: 37 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
D(LPIBR(-1),2)
|
-1.761614
|
0.271789
|
-6.481552
|
0.0000
|
|
D(LPIBR(-1),3)
|
0.269822
|
0.162246
|
1.663044
|
0.1055
|
|
C
|
-0.019758
|
2.118724
|
-0.009325
|
0.9926
|
|
R-squared
|
0.716122
|
Mean dependent var
|
-0.108108
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.699423
|
S.D. dependent var
|
23.50270
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
12.88533
|
Akaike info criterion
|
8.027661
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
5645.082
|
Schwarz criterion
|
8.158276
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-145.5117
|
F-statistic
|
42.88481
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.097458
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000000
|
Annexe 3 : Racine unitaire ADF LINV
en différence première
|
ADF Test Statistic
|
-1.202761
|
1% Critical Value*
|
-3.6117
|
|
|
5% Critical Value
|
-2.9399
|
|
|
10% Critical Value
|
-2.6080
|
|
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit
root.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LINV,2)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 09/17/06 Time: 23:36
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1963 2000
|
|
Included observations: 38 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
D(LINV(-1))
|
-1.178055
|
0.979459
|
-1.202761
|
0.2371
|
|
D(LINV(-1),2)
|
0.330293
|
0.614467
|
0.537528
|
0.5943
|
|
C
|
-21.93267
|
35.03349
|
-0.626049
|
0.5353
|
|
R-squared
|
0.053115
|
Mean dependent var
|
-31.68421
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
-0.000992
|
S.D. dependent var
|
209.2031
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
209.3069
|
Akaike info criterion
|
13.60114
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
1533328.
|
Schwarz criterion
|
13.73042
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-255.4216
|
F-statistic
|
0.981661
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.132918
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.384767
|
Annexe 4 : Racine unitaire ADF
LEXPAGRI en différence première
|
ADF Test Statistic
|
-5.930928
|
1% Critical Value*
|
-3.6117
|
|
|
5% Critical Value
|
-2.9399
|
|
|
10% Critical Value
|
-2.6080
|
|
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit
root.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LEXPAGRI,2)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 09/17/06 Time: 23:39
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1963 2000
|
|
Included observations: 38 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
D(LEXPAGRI(-1))
|
-1.768585
|
0.298197
|
-5.930928
|
0.0000
|
|
D(LEXPAGRI(-1),2)
|
0.114884
|
0.167338
|
0.686537
|
0.4969
|
|
C
|
8.908500
|
10.19392
|
0.873903
|
0.3881
|
|
R-squared
|
0.795958
|
Mean dependent var
|
-0.026316
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.784298
|
S.D. dependent var
|
133.7132
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
62.10136
|
Akaike info criterion
|
11.17107
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
134980.3
|
Schwarz criterion
|
11.30035
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-209.2503
|
F-statistic
|
68.26656
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.062990
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000000
|
Annexe 5 : Racine unitaire ADF LPOP
à niveau
|
ADF Test Statistic
|
-1.061885
|
1% Critical Value*
|
-3.6067
|
|
|
5% Critical Value
|
-2.9378
|
|
|
10% Critical Value
|
-2.6069
|
|
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit
root.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
|
|
Dependent Variable: D(LPOP)
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 09/17/06 Time: 23:42
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1962 2000
|
|
Included observations: 39 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
LPOP(-1)
|
-0.857560
|
0.807582
|
-1.061885
|
0.2954
|
|
D(LPOP(-1))
|
-40.20157
|
45.85345
|
-0.876740
|
0.3864
|
|
C
|
841.1190
|
635.3039
|
1.323963
|
0.1939
|
|
R-squared
|
0.101601
|
Mean dependent var
|
-20.76923
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.051690
|
S.D. dependent var
|
148.6043
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
144.7127
|
Akaike info criterion
|
12.86118
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
753903.2
|
Schwarz criterion
|
12.98915
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-247.7930
|
F-statistic
|
2.035639
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.097639
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.145361
|
Annexe 6 : Test de
cointégration entre les variables
|
Date: 09/17/06 Time: 23:44
|
|
Sample: 1960 2000
|
|
Included observations: 39
|
|
Test assumption: Linear deterministic trend in the data
|
|
|
|
|
|
Series: LPIBR LEXPAGRI LINV LPOP
|
|
Lags interval: 1 to 1
|
|
Likelihood
|
5 Percent
|
1 Percent
|
Hypothesized
|
|
Eigenvalue
|
Ratio
|
Critical Value
|
Critical Value
|
No. of CE(s)
|
|
0.472213
|
51.80321
|
47.21
|
54.46
|
None *
|
|
0.380059
|
26.87977
|
29.68
|
35.65
|
At most 1
|
|
0.187114
|
8.232652
|
15.41
|
20.04
|
At most 2
|
|
0.003921
|
0.153235
|
3.76
|
6.65
|
At most 3
|
|
*(**) denotes rejection of the hypothesis at 5%(1%)
significance level
|
|
|
|
|
|
L.R. test indicates 1 cointegrating equation(s) at 5%
significance level
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unnormalized Cointegrating Coefficients:
|
|
LPIBR
|
LEXPAGRI
|
LINV
|
LPOP
|
|
|
-0.008524
|
-0.002784
|
0.002895
|
0.016722
|
|
|
-0.002900
|
0.000573
|
0.003258
|
-0.005340
|
|
|
-0.003567
|
0.002147
|
0.001212
|
0.006204
|
|
|
-0.000450
|
-0.000273
|
0.001777
|
0.000911
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Normalized Cointegrating Coefficients: 1 Cointegrating
Equation(s)
|
|
|
|
|
|
LPIBR
|
LEXPAGRI
|
LINV
|
LPOP
|
C
|
|
1.000000
|
0.326583
|
-0.339612
|
-1.961734
|
79.61827
|
|
(0.07242)
|
(0.05549)
|
(0.21960)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-793.0747
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Normalized Cointegrating Coefficients: 2 Cointegrating
Equation(s)
|
|
|
|
|
|
LPIBR
|
LEXPAGRI
|
LINV
|
LPOP
|
C
|
|
1.000000
|
0.000000
|
-0.828232
|
0.408483
|
-1181.227
|
|
|
(0.23525)
|
(1.03719)
|
|
|
0.000000
|
1.000000
|
1.496156
|
-7.257616
|
3860.714
|
|
|
(0.73773)
|
(3.25261)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-783.7511
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Normalized Cointegrating Coefficients: 3 Cointegrating
Equation(s)
|
|
|
|
|
|
LPIBR
|
LEXPAGRI
|
LINV
|
LPOP
|
C
|
|
1.000000
|
0.000000
|
0.000000
|
-3.476842
|
1298.598
|
|
|
|
(0.50070)
|
|
|
0.000000
|
1.000000
|
0.000000
|
-0.238990
|
-618.9528
|
|
|
|
(0.78459)
|
|
|
0.000000
|
0.000000
|
1.000000
|
-4.691107
|
2994.118
|
|
|
|
(0.86003)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-779.7114
|
|
|
|
Annexe 7 : Equation de long terme
|
Dependent Variable: LPIBR
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 09/17/06 Time: 23:49
|
|
Sample: 1960 2000
|
|
Included observations: 41
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
LEXPAGRI
|
0.278712
|
0.141225
|
1.973527
|
0.0559
|
|
LINV
|
0.817765
|
0.102929
|
7.944928
|
0.0000
|
|
LPOP
|
-1.034803
|
0.159233
|
-6.498672
|
0.0000
|
|
C
|
1503.466
|
148.2300
|
10.14279
|
0.0000
|
|
R-squared
|
0.668999
|
Mean dependent var
|
1705.634
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.642161
|
S.D. dependent var
|
104.7391
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
62.65457
|
Akaike info criterion
|
11.20562
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
145247.0
|
Schwarz criterion
|
11.37280
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-225.7152
|
F-statistic
|
24.92739
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.652405
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000000
|
Annexe 8 : Test d'autocorrelation
des erreurs de long terme
|
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
|
|
F-statistic
|
18.39860
|
Probability
|
0.000003
|
|
Obs*R-squared
|
21.01315
|
Probability
|
0.000027
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Test Equation:
|
|
Dependent Variable: RESID
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 09/18/06 Time: 00:10
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
LEXPAGRI
|
-0.030711
|
0.102881
|
-0.298511
|
0.7671
|
|
LINV
|
-0.073692
|
0.074944
|
-0.983301
|
0.3322
|
|
LPOP
|
0.054081
|
0.114669
|
0.471627
|
0.6401
|
|
C
|
57.34653
|
107.2221
|
0.534839
|
0.5961
|
|
RESID(-1)
|
0.459261
|
0.160458
|
2.862179
|
0.0071
|
|
RESID(-2)
|
0.359763
|
0.162870
|
2.208897
|
0.0338
|
|
R-squared
|
0.512516
|
Mean dependent var
|
-1.89E-13
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.442875
|
S.D. dependent var
|
60.25923
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
44.97797
|
Akaike info criterion
|
10.58468
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
70805.61
|
Schwarz criterion
|
10.83545
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-210.9860
|
F-statistic
|
7.359440
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.659593
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000084
|
Annexe 9 : Modèle des MCE
|
Dependent Variable: DIFLPIBR2
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 09/18/06 Time: 00:01
|
|
Sample(adjusted): 1962 2000
|
|
Included observations: 39 after adjusting endpoints
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
DIFLEXPAGRI
|
0.045239
|
0.021315
|
2.122383
|
0.0414
|
|
LPOP
|
-0.120974
|
0.038022
|
-3.181675
|
0.0032
|
|
LPIBR2
|
0.700440
|
0.128673
|
5.443582
|
0.0000
|
|
LIPBR1
|
-0.676314
|
0.131462
|
-5.144575
|
0.0000
|
|
DIFLINV
|
0.092592
|
0.027537
|
3.362421
|
0.0020
|
|
C
|
68.02844
|
29.60514
|
2.297859
|
0.0280
|
|
R-squared
|
0.590415
|
Mean dependent var
|
-0.384615
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.528356
|
S.D. dependent var
|
13.95220
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
9.581859
|
Akaike info criterion
|
7.498259
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
3029.797
|
Schwarz criterion
|
7.754191
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-140.2160
|
F-statistic
|
9.513860
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
2.116238
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.000011
|
Annexe 10 : Test d'autocorrelation
des erreurs du MCE
|
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
|
|
F-statistic
|
1.298710
|
Probability
|
0.287319
|
|
Obs*R-squared
|
3.015093
|
Probability
|
0.221453
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Test Equation:
|
|
Dependent Variable: RESID
|
|
Method: Least Squares
|
|
Date: 09/18/06 Time: 00:03
|
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
DIFLEXPAGRI
|
0.013339
|
0.024866
|
0.536428
|
0.5955
|
|
LPOP
|
-0.032721
|
0.043066
|
-0.759775
|
0.4531
|
|
LPIBR2
|
-0.444373
|
0.307799
|
-1.443710
|
0.1589
|
|
LIPBR1
|
0.466509
|
0.321533
|
1.450892
|
0.1569
|
|
DIFLINV
|
0.020951
|
0.030348
|
0.690357
|
0.4951
|
|
C
|
-13.41853
|
30.51003
|
-0.439807
|
0.6631
|
|
RESID(-1)
|
-0.639902
|
0.427399
|
-1.497202
|
0.1445
|
|
RESID(-2)
|
-0.361269
|
0.256597
|
-1.407921
|
0.1691
|
|
R-squared
|
0.077310
|
Mean dependent var
|
-1.04E-13
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
-0.131039
|
S.D. dependent var
|
8.929250
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
9.496286
|
Akaike info criterion
|
7.520361
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
2795.563
|
Schwarz criterion
|
7.861604
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-138.6470
|
F-statistic
|
0.371060
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.914406
|
Prob(F-statistic)
|
0.912155
|
Annexe 11 : Données
|
obs
|
LPIBR
|
LEXPAGRI
|
LINV
|
LPOP
|
|
1960
|
1524
|
751
|
875
|
808
|
|
1961
|
1544
|
790
|
911
|
810
|
|
1962
|
1549
|
801
|
913
|
813
|
|
1963
|
1554
|
811
|
920
|
816
|
|
1964
|
1557
|
788
|
917
|
818
|
|
1965
|
1568
|
813
|
901
|
821
|
|
1966
|
1594
|
870
|
904
|
824
|
|
1967
|
1596
|
878
|
908
|
826
|
|
1968
|
1594
|
858
|
916
|
829
|
|
1969
|
1596
|
835
|
874
|
831
|
|
1970
|
1599
|
865
|
943
|
834
|
|
1971
|
1601
|
835
|
886
|
837
|
|
1972
|
1602
|
851
|
781
|
839
|
|
1973
|
1603
|
762
|
919
|
842
|
|
1974
|
1599
|
696
|
895
|
845
|
|
1975
|
1657
|
785
|
1067
|
847
|
|
1976
|
1685
|
825
|
1104
|
850
|
|
1977
|
1704
|
835
|
1133
|
852
|
|
1978
|
1726
|
766
|
1164
|
856
|
|
1979
|
1747
|
772
|
1185
|
859
|
|
1980
|
1766
|
869
|
1203
|
862
|
|
1981
|
1778
|
817
|
1203
|
865
|
|
1982
|
1787
|
718
|
1204
|
869
|
|
1983
|
1791
|
873
|
1151
|
872
|
|
1984
|
1784
|
754
|
1010
|
875
|
|
1985
|
1785
|
823
|
1147
|
878
|
|
1986
|
1785
|
669
|
1134
|
882
|
|
1987
|
1785
|
810
|
1110
|
885
|
|
1988
|
1788
|
759
|
1157
|
888
|
|
1989
|
1788
|
818
|
1140
|
891
|
|
1990
|
1787
|
824
|
1144
|
895
|
|
1991
|
1787
|
775
|
1152
|
898
|
|
1992
|
1786
|
859
|
1121
|
901
|
|
1993
|
1786
|
745
|
1114
|
905
|
|
1994
|
1808
|
928
|
1172
|
908
|
|
1995
|
1807
|
916
|
1148
|
911
|
|
1996
|
1813
|
949
|
1180
|
914
|
|
1997
|
1817
|
916
|
1193
|
918
|
|
1998
|
1827
|
957
|
1250
|
921
|
|
1999
|
1836
|
981
|
1202
|
925
|
|
2000
|
1841
|
991
|
0
|
0
|
| 
