ANNEXE 1 : Carte de l'UEMOA
Source : UEMOA
ANNEXE 2: Données sur les variables du
modèle
|
PAYS
|
ANNEE
|
LMd
|
LPIBR
|
TIR
|
TINFL
|
LCRED
|
TCM
|
|
1
|
2000
|
7.33
|
7.01
|
9.886
|
2.531
|
2.055
|
737.452
|
|
1
|
2001
|
7.334
|
7.011
|
5.565
|
4.362
|
2.077
|
733.089
|
|
1
|
2002
|
7.431
|
7.004
|
6.120
|
3.077
|
2.082
|
695.934
|
|
1
|
2003
|
7.276
|
6.998
|
3.626
|
3.297
|
2.041
|
581.024
|
|
1
|
2004
|
7.298
|
7.003
|
11.733
|
1.458
|
2.067
|
527.933
|
|
1
|
2005
|
7.281
|
7.01
|
7.491
|
3.886
|
2.065
|
528.109
|
|
1
|
2006
|
7.336
|
7.017
|
5.726
|
2.467
|
2.094
|
522.898
|
|
1
|
2007
|
7.448
|
7.024
|
4.505
|
1.892
|
2.161
|
479.343
|
|
1
|
2008
|
7.447
|
7.035
|
-0.574
|
6.309
|
2.196
|
448.346
|
|
1
|
2009
|
7.527
|
7.049
|
6.101
|
1.02
|
2.221
|
471.612
|
|
1
|
2010
|
7.595
|
7.058
|
2.281
|
1.226
|
2.244
|
495.827
|
|
1
|
2011
|
7.614
|
7.038
|
6.302
|
4.912
|
2.274
|
471.777
|
|
1
|
2012
|
7.635
|
7.083
|
3.403
|
1.305
|
2.281
|
510.891
|
|
1
|
2013
|
7.671
|
7.121
|
2.743
|
2.581
|
2.331
|
494.089
|
|
1
|
2014
|
7.727
|
7.156
|
5.256
|
0.453
|
2.381
|
494.553
|
|
1
|
2015
|
7.793
|
7.196
|
4.428
|
1.237
|
2.454
|
591.605
|
|
2
|
2000
|
6.988
|
6.632
|
10.015
|
0.732
|
2.164
|
737.452
|
|
2
|
2001
|
6.936
|
6.651
|
9.635
|
3.074
|
2.165
|
733.089
|
|
2
|
2002
|
6.957
|
6.654
|
13.511
|
2.231
|
2.183
|
695.934
|
|
2
|
2003
|
7.081
|
6.682
|
10.616
|
-0.03
|
2.213
|
581.024
|
|
2
|
2004
|
7.135
|
6.707
|
7.581
|
0.508
|
2.226
|
527.933
|
Analyse économétrique de la demande de monnaie dans
l'Uemoa Page 69
Analyse économétrique de la demande de monnaie dans
l'Uemoa Page 70
2
|
2005
|
7.167
|
6.731
|
4.085
|
1.705
|
2.298
|
528.109
|
|
2
|
2006
|
7.208
|
6.741
|
4.066
|
2.113
|
2.305
|
522.898
|
|
2
|
2007
|
7.236
|
6.762
|
2.205
|
5.853
|
2.327
|
479.343
|
|
2
|
2008
|
7.251
|
6.778
|
1.248
|
5.77
|
2.38
|
448.346
|
|
2
|
2009
|
7.314
|
6.788
|
8.545
|
-2.248
|
2.386
|
471.612
|
|
2
|
2010
|
7.352
|
6.806
|
5.113
|
1.229
|
2.411
|
495.827
|
|
2
|
2011
|
7.365
|
6.814
|
2.500
|
3.403
|
2.477
|
471.777
|
|
2
|
2012
|
7.387
|
6.832
|
4.272
|
1.421
|
2.499
|
510.891
|
|
2
|
2013
|
7.419
|
6.848
|
9.559
|
0.699
|
2.535
|
494.089
|
|
2
|
2014
|
7.476
|
6.868
|
7.534
|
-1.08
|
2.542
|
494.553
|
|
2
|
2015
|
7.551
|
6.89
|
6.106
|
0.145
|
2.547
|
591.605
|
|
3
|
2000
|
6.796
|
6.358
|
10.506
|
4.165
|
1.93
|
737.452
|
|
3
|
2001
|
6.782
|
6.381
|
18.386
|
3.984
|
1.904
|
733.089
|
|
3
|
2002
|
6.72
|
6.401
|
8.797
|
2.489
|
1.946
|
695.934
|
|
3
|
2003
|
6.799
|
6.415
|
13.284
|
1.487
|
2.053
|
581.024
|
|
3
|
2004
|
6.743
|
6.434
|
13.459
|
0.874
|
2.06
|
527.933
|
|
3
|
2005
|
6.787
|
6.442
|
5.433
|
5.365
|
2.133
|
528.109
|
|
3
|
2006
|
6.876
|
6.458
|
6.022
|
3.782
|
2.161
|
522.898
|
|
3
|
2007
|
6.946
|
6.484
|
11.186
|
1.298
|
2.232
|
479.343
|
|
3
|
2008
|
7.011
|
6.504
|
5.041
|
7.947
|
2.291
|
448.346
|
|
3
|
2009
|
7.043
|
6.514
|
8.270
|
2.157
|
2.333
|
471.612
|
|
3
|
2010
|
7.075
|
6.523
|
10.430
|
2.307
|
2.356
|
495.827
|
|
3
|
2011
|
7.101
|
6.536
|
4.990
|
2.713
|
2.391
|
471.777
|
|
3
|
2012
|
7.104
|
6.556
|
0.762
|
6.753
|
2.41
|
510.891
|
|
3
|
2013
|
7.168
|
6.585
|
6.798
|
0.972
|
2.425
|
494.089
|
|
3
|
2014
|
7.247
|
6.612
|
8.158
|
-1.086
|
2.423
|
494.553
|
|
3
|
2015
|
7.272
|
6.634
|
7.839
|
0.32
|
2.393
|
591.605
|
|
4
|
2000
|
5.922
|
5.55
|
5.761
|
8.636
|
1.102
|
737.452
|
|
4
|
2001
|
5.845
|
5.551
|
14.971
|
3.348
|
1.096
|
733.089
|
|
4
|
2002
|
5.927
|
5.519
|
11.951
|
3.3
|
1.105
|
695.934
|
|
4
|
2003
|
5.56
|
5.52
|
13.777
|
-3.503
|
0.903
|
581.024
|
|
4
|
2004
|
5.709
|
5.532
|
8.179
|
0.883
|
0.821
|
527.933
|
|
4
|
2005
|
5.769
|
5.55
|
5.671
|
3.329
|
0.977
|
528.109
|
|
4
|
2006
|
5.779
|
5.56
|
14.606
|
1.955
|
1.241
|
522.898
|
|
4
|
2007
|
5.862
|
5.574
|
5.419
|
4.617
|
1.433
|
479.343
|
|
4
|
2008
|
5.942
|
5.588
|
-1.197
|
10.46
|
1.653
|
448.346
|
|
4
|
2009
|
5.984
|
5.602
|
12.733
|
-1.651
|
1.736
|
471.612
|
|
4
|
2010
|
6.052
|
5.621
|
6.749
|
2.518
|
1.79
|
495.827
|
|
4
|
2011
|
6.194
|
5.661
|
-3.324
|
5.046
|
2.072
|
471.777
|
|
4
|
2012
|
6.16
|
5.653
|
11.056
|
2.131
|
2.155
|
510.891
|
|
4
|
2013
|
6.176
|
5.657
|
9.487
|
1.207
|
2.166
|
494.089
|
|
4
|
2014
|
6.355
|
5.669
|
-5.145
|
-1.509
|
2.117
|
494.553
|
|
4
|
2015
|
6.453
|
5.689
|
0.915
|
1.405
|
2.107
|
591.605
|
|
5
|
2000
|
6.713
|
6.397
|
7.138
|
-0.678
|
2.06
|
737.452
|
|
5
|
2001
|
6.771
|
6.445
|
6.578
|
5.187
|
2.091
|
733.089
|
Analyse économétrique de la demande de monnaie dans
l'Uemoa Page 71
5
|
2002
|
6.849
|
6.463
|
4.894
|
5.033
|
2.151
|
695.934
|
|
5
|
2003
|
6.94
|
6.495
|
4.806
|
-1.347
|
2.188
|
581.024
|
|
5
|
2004
|
6.938
|
6.505
|
10.694
|
-3.1
|
2.207
|
527.933
|
|
5
|
2005
|
6.959
|
6.531
|
2.491
|
6.398
|
2.152
|
528.109
|
|
5
|
2006
|
6.993
|
6.553
|
4.418
|
1.544
|
2.207
|
522.898
|
|
5
|
2007
|
6.982
|
6.571
|
5.533
|
1.412
|
2.22
|
479.343
|
|
5
|
2008
|
6.883
|
6.592
|
2.715
|
9.171
|
2.234
|
448.346
|
|
5
|
2009
|
7.025
|
6.611
|
4.863
|
2.464
|
2.261
|
471.612
|
|
5
|
2010
|
7.086
|
6.636
|
3.911
|
1.109
|
2.289
|
495.827
|
|
5
|
2011
|
7.126
|
6.648
|
-3.320
|
2.856
|
2.373
|
471.777
|
|
5
|
2012
|
7.166
|
6.648
|
5.014
|
5.427
|
2.393
|
510.891
|
|
5
|
2013
|
7.203
|
6.655
|
11.284
|
-0.606
|
2.436
|
494.089
|
|
5
|
2014
|
7.223
|
6.685
|
6.225
|
0.895
|
2.478
|
494.553
|
|
5
|
2015
|
7.26
|
6.706
|
5.062
|
1.436
|
2.536
|
591.605
|
|
6
|
2000
|
6.121
|
6.21
|
1.556
|
2.9
|
1.626
|
737.452
|
|
6
|
2001
|
6.276
|
6.242
|
10.340
|
4.006
|
1.578
|
733.089
|
|
6
|
2002
|
6.176
|
6.264
|
10.431
|
2.629
|
1.616
|
695.934
|
|
6
|
2003
|
6.343
|
6.279
|
7.341
|
-1.614
|
1.641
|
581.024
|
|
6
|
2004
|
6.378
|
6.275
|
8.659
|
0.263
|
1.729
|
527.933
|
|
6
|
2005
|
6.366
|
6.306
|
6.559
|
7.797
|
1.777
|
528.109
|
|
6
|
2006
|
6.414
|
6.331
|
11.854
|
0.04
|
1.873
|
522.898
|
|
6
|
2007
|
6.578
|
6.344
|
5.375
|
0.054
|
1.939
|
479.343
|
|
6
|
2008
|
6.571
|
6.384
|
3.070
|
11.305
|
2.036
|
448.346
|
|
6
|
2009
|
6.65
|
6.381
|
5.544
|
0.583
|
2.112
|
471.612
|
|
6
|
2010
|
6.735
|
6.416
|
7.153
|
0.804
|
2.125
|
495.827
|
|
6
|
2011
|
6.751
|
6.425
|
6.184
|
2.942
|
2.18
|
471.777
|
|
6
|
2012
|
6.869
|
6.474
|
6.002
|
0.455
|
2.225
|
510.891
|
|
6
|
2013
|
6.9
|
6.493
|
7.340
|
2.299
|
2.222
|
494.089
|
|
6
|
2014
|
7
|
6.522
|
9.625
|
-0.925
|
2.236
|
494.553
|
|
6
|
2015
|
7.015
|
6.543
|
9.081
|
1.007
|
2.27
|
591.605
|
|
7
|
2000
|
11.594
|
6.371
|
8.370
|
-0.304
|
1.969
|
737.452
|
|
7
|
2001
|
11.58
|
6.399
|
9.875
|
5.007
|
1.998
|
733.089
|
|
7
|
2002
|
11.567
|
6.418
|
12.110
|
2.176
|
2.059
|
695.934
|
|
7
|
2003
|
11.795
|
6.45
|
10.367
|
2.035
|
2.082
|
581.024
|
|
7
|
2004
|
11.777
|
6.469
|
6.191
|
-0.4
|
2.113
|
527.933
|
|
7
|
2005
|
11.766
|
6.505
|
6.449
|
6.415
|
2.171
|
528.109
|
|
7
|
2006
|
11.809
|
6.532
|
9.776
|
2.333
|
2.202
|
522.898
|
|
7
|
2007
|
11.842
|
6.549
|
7.122
|
-0.231
|
2.188
|
479.343
|
|
7
|
2008
|
11.946
|
6.574
|
0.438
|
10.66
|
2.246
|
448.346
|
|
7
|
2009
|
12.036
|
6.586
|
7.329
|
2.608
|
2.241
|
471.612
|
|
7
|
2010
|
12.11
|
6.622
|
5.213
|
-0.764
|
2.265
|
495.827
|
|
7
|
2011
|
12.168
|
6.65
|
2.431
|
2.76
|
2.329
|
471.777
|
|
7
|
2012
|
12.231
|
6.677
|
3.474
|
3.818
|
2.396
|
510.891
|
|
7
|
2013
|
12.275
|
6.703
|
10.337
|
0.534
|
2.471
|
494.089
|
|
7
|
2014
|
12.321
|
6.72
|
9.215
|
-0.258
|
2.52
|
494.553
|
|
7
|
2015
|
12.397
|
6.738
|
8.401
|
0.955
|
2.54
|
591.605
|
|
8
|
2000
|
6.498
|
6.124
|
10.403
|
1.89
|
2.046
|
737.452
|
|
8
|
2001
|
6.44
|
6.128
|
14.726
|
3.91
|
2.012
|
733.089
|
|
8
|
2002
|
6.415
|
6.144
|
8.345
|
3.074
|
1.964
|
695.934
|
|
8
|
2003
|
6.473
|
6.172
|
8.939
|
-0.963
|
2.05
|
581.024
|
|
8
|
2004
|
6.548
|
6.168
|
10.380
|
0.392
|
2.073
|
527.933
|
|
8
|
2005
|
6.53
|
6.147
|
1.817
|
6.802
|
2.143
|
528.109
|
|
8
|
2006
|
6.613
|
6.159
|
10.291
|
2.227
|
2.134
|
522.898
|
|
8
|
2007
|
6.692
|
6.154
|
6.918
|
0.96
|
2.253
|
479.343
|
|
8
|
2008
|
6.713
|
6.171
|
-4.330
|
8.682
|
2.215
|
448.346
|
|
8
|
2009
|
6.756
|
6.194
|
7.800
|
3.313
|
2.275
|
471.612
|
|
8
|
2010
|
6.81
|
6.22
|
8.246
|
1.834
|
2.335
|
495.827
|
|
8
|
2011
|
6.865
|
6.126
|
1.795
|
3.572
|
2.578
|
471.777
|
|
8
|
2012
|
6.896
|
6.151
|
2.704
|
2.631
|
2.629
|
510.891
|
|
8
|
2013
|
6.957
|
6.173
|
10.743
|
1.767
|
2.666
|
494.089
|
|
8
|
2014
|
6.972
|
6.198
|
4.203
|
0.187
|
2.684
|
494.553
|
|
8
|
2015
|
7.045
|
6.223
|
4.075
|
1.79
|
2.725
|
591.605
|
Source : Calcul de l'auteur sur Excel
Note : Le taux d'intérêt réel (TIR) et le
taux d'inflation (TINFL) sont en %
|
ANNEXE 3 : Estimation
|
du modèle sans effets
SS df MS
|
|
Number of obs
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source
|
58.5887043
|
5 11.7177409
|
|
Prob > F
|
|
|
334.555838
|
122 2.74226097
|
|
F( 5, 122)
R-squared
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Model
|
|
|
|
Residual
|
393.144542
|
127 3.09562632
|
|
Root MSE
|
|
|
Total
|
|
|
P>|t|
|
|
|
|
LMd
|
Coef.
1.027305
|
Std. Err. t
.4644173 2.21
|
0.029
|
[95% Conf.
.107945
|
|
|
.0410645
|
.0449644 0.91
|
0.363
|
-.0479469
|
|
|
LPIBR
|
.0240181
|
.0604166 0.40
|
0.692
|
-.0955827
|
|
|
TIR
|
1.00866
|
.5907573 1.71
|
0.090
|
-.1608034
|
|
|
TINFL
|
-.0000562
|
.0018709 -0.03
|
0.976
|
-.0037598
|
|
|
LCRED
|
-1.585838
|
2.606705 -0.61
|
0.544
|
-6.746071
|
|
= 128
= 4.27
= 0.0013
= 0.1490
Adj R-squared = 0.1141
= 1.656
Interval]
1.946666 .1300759 .1436188
2.178123 .0036474 3.574395
Analyse économétrique de la demande de monnaie dans
l'Uemoa Page 72
| 
