Analyse economètrique de la demande de monnaie dans l'UEMOA

ANNEXE 4 : Estimation du modèle à effets fixes

^Fixed-effects (within) regression ^Group variable: PAYS
^R-sq: within = ^0.9075	^between = ^0.1235 ^overall = ^0.1346 ^1.615932 .1184879 ^-.0037606 .0020026 ^-.0050141 .002588 ^.3558061 .0383642 ^.0001432 .0000853 ^-3.726272 .7349022	^Number of obs = ^Number of groups = ^Obs per group: min = ^avg = ^max = ^13.64 0.000 1.38123 ^-1.88 0.063 -.0077274 ^-1.94 0.055 -.0101404 ^9.27 0.000 .2798141 ^1.68 0.096 -.0000258 ^-5.07 0.000 -5.181972
^corr(u_i, Xb) = ^-0.0674	^.99848863 (fraction	^F(5,115) = ^Prob > ^F =

^{128 8 16 16.0 16 225.72 0.0000 Livid}

^{Coef. Std. Err.}

^{t P>|t| [95% Conf.}

^Interval]

^LPIBR

^TIR

^TCivi

^1.850634

^.0002061

^.0001122

^.4317981

^.0003122

^-2.270572

^sigma_u

^sigma_e

^rho

^1.7455364

^.06791137

^{of variance due to u_i)}

^{F test that all u_i=0: F(7, 115)} = ^{10346.57 Prob} > ^F = ^0.0000

ANNEXE 5 : Estimation du modèle à effets aléatoires

^TINFL

^{Random-effects GLS regression Number of obs} = ¹²⁸

^LCRED

^{Group variable: PAYS Number of groups} = ⁸

^_cons

^{R-sq: within} = ^{0.9075 Obs per group: min} = ¹⁶

^between = ^{0.1235 avg} = ^16.0

^overall = ^{0.1346 max} = ¹⁶

^{Wald chi2(5)} = ^1164.94

^{corr(u_i, X)} = ^{0 (assumed) Prob} > ^chi2 = ^0.0000

			^z P>|z|
	^1.615012	^.1165137	^13.86 0.000		^1.38665
	^-.0037575	^.0019715	^-1.91 0.057		^-.0076215
^LMd	^Coef. ^-.0050142	^Std. Err. ^.0025478	^-1.97 0.049		^[95% Conf. ^-.0100078
	^.3560079	^.0377562	^9.43 0.000		^.2820071
^LPIBR	^.000143	^.000084	^1.70 0.089		^-.0000216
^TIR ^TINFL	^-3.720669	^1.148664	^-3.24 0.001		^-5.972009
^LCRED
^TCM
^_cons	^.99929963	^(fraction	^of variance due	^to

^{Interval] 1.843375 .0001066 -.0000207 .4300087 .0003076 -1.469328}

^2.5652333

^.06791137

^rho

^u_i)

Analyse économétrique de la demande de monnaie dans l'Uemoa Page 73

ANNEXE 6 : Statistiques descriptives des variables

^LMd			^1.759439	^5.56
			^1.859841	^5.980562
			^.2125112	^7.037234
		^6.445117	^.4136603	^5.519
			^.4321647	^5.5935
				^6.25593
		^6.755672	^4.059089	^-5.145
				^5.144125
			^3.913658	^-5.364891
			^2.731236	^-3.503
			^.3914748	^1.595313
			^2.706381	^-3.745039
		^2.129922	^.3532935	^.821
			^.270632	^1.529625
				^1.421297
		^549.0301	^91.38989	^448.346
			^0	^549.0301
			^91.38989	^448.346

^Variable

^Mean

^{Std. Dev.}

^Min

^Max

^Observations

^overall

^{7.48767 2}

^12.397

^N =

^between

^11.95088

ⁿ =

^7.960109

T=

^LPIBR

^overall

^7.196

^N =

^between

^7.050813

ⁿ =

^{.08004 72}

^6.62293

T=

^N =

^between

^1.146636

ⁿ =

^within

T=

^TINFL

^overall

^{2.39371 1}

^11.305

^N =

^between

^2.845437

ⁿ =

^within

^11.53965

T=

^N =

ⁿ =

T=

^N =

ⁿ =

T=

ANNEXE 7 : Estimation du modèle par Pays (Régression stepwise par pays)

^within

-Cote d'ivoire

^{begin with full model}

^within

^p < ^{0.2000 for all terms in model}

^TIR

^overall

^18.386

^{Linear regression Number of obs} = ¹⁶

^8.710062

^{F( 5, 10)} = ^476.86

^16.43161

^Prob > ^F = ^0.0000

^R-squared = ^0.9884

^{Root MSE} = .⁰²²⁴⁹

^LCRED		^overall				^2.725
		^between			^t P>|t|	^2.353625
		^within ^-1.622802		^.3501651	^.2454083 ^-4.63 0.001	^2.766297
^TCM		^overall ^-.003578		^.001358	^-2.63 0.025	^737.452
		^between ^-.0148343		^.0032842	^-4.52 0.001	^549.0301
		^within ^2.001119		^.1267835	^15.78 0.000	^737.452
		^.0003474		^.0001151	^3.02 0.013
		^14.41271		^2.182312	^6.60 0.000
-Sénégal
	^LMd ^Coef. ^Std. Err.
	^LPIBR
^TIR ^Linear regression
	^TINFL
^p =	^LCRED
^p =	^TCM
	^_cons
					^t
			^2.114425	^.0926542	^22.82
			^-.0060259	^.0017973	^-3.35
			^-.0113743	^.0030847	^-3.69
	^LMd		^Coef. ^-6.999458	^Std. Err. ^.6363397	^-11.00

¹²⁸

⁸

¹⁶

¹²⁸

⁸

¹⁶

¹²⁸

⁸

¹⁶

¹²⁸

⁸

¹⁶

¹²⁸

⁸

¹⁶

¹²⁸

⁸

¹⁶

^Robust

^{[95% Conf. Interval]}

^{-2.403019 -.8425859}

^{-.0066038 -.0005521}

^{-.0221519 -.0075166}

^{1.718627 2.28361}

^{.000091 .0006038}

^{9.550218 19.2752}

^0.9006 >= ^{0.2000 removing LCRED 0.8147} >= ^{0.2000 removing TCM}

^{Number of obs} = ¹⁶

^{F( 3, 12)} = ^270.17

^Prob > ^F = ^0.0000

^R-squared = ^0.9910

^{Root MSE} = .⁰¹⁹⁷⁷

^Robust

^{P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]}

^{0.000 1.912549 2.316301}

^{0.006 -.0099418 -.00211}

^{0.003 -.0180953 -.0046534}

^{0.000 -8.385923 -5.612993}

Analyse économétrique de la demande de monnaie dans l'Uemoa Page 74

-Bénin

^p = ^0.5769 >= ^{0.2000 removing TINFL p} = ^0.2256 >= ^{0.2000 removing LPIBR}

^{Linear regression Number of obs} = ¹⁶

^{F( 3, 12)} = ^163.94

^Prob > ^F = ^0.0000

^R-squared = ^0.9720

^{Root MSE} = .⁰³⁴⁵⁷

^t

^P>|t|

^1.38302

^.0897872

^15.40

^0.000

^1.18739

^.0066689

^.0028274

^2.36

^0.036

^.0005086

^.0009832

^.0001489

^6.60

^0.000

^.0006586

^3.305528

^.2776543

^11.91

^0.000

^2.700571

-Guinée Bissau

^Linear regression

^Number of

^Prob > ^F

^R-squared

^Root MSE

^LCRED ^TIR ^TCM

^p = ^0.5853 >= ^0.2000 removing

^t

^P>|t|

^_cons

^.4581573

^.0482606

^9.49

^0.000

^.3530065

^-.0099872

^.0027621

^-3.62

^0.004

^F( 3, ^-.0160052

^.0009594

^.0002267

^4.23

^0.001

^.0004654

^4.822667

^.184092

^26.20

^0.000

^4.421565

^p = ^0.2056 >= ^{0.2000 removing LPIBR}

-Mali

^Robust

^LMd

^Coef.

^{Std. Err.}

^TINFL

^LMd

^Coef.

^Robust

^{Std. Err.}

^LCRED

^TCM

^_cons

^p = ^0.9733 >= ^{0.2000 removing TCM}

^p = ^0.6849 >= ^{0.2000 removing TIR}

^{[95% Conf.}

^obs = ¹⁶

¹²⁾ = ^41.98

= ^0.0000 = ^0.9382 = .^{06659 [95% Conf.}

^Interval]

^.563308

^TIR

^-.0039692

^.0014535

^5.223769

^{Linear regression Number of obs} = ¹⁶

^{F( 3, 12)} = ^123.25

^Prob > ^F = ^0.0000

^R-squared = ^0.9517

^{Root MSE} = .⁰³⁹⁶¹

			^t	^P>|t|
	^.9473287	^.2366642	^4.00	^0.002	^.4316817
^LMd	^Coef. ^.5087937	^Std. Err. ^.1607008	^3.17	^0.008	^[95% Conf. ^.1586568
	^-.0065552	^.0046069	^-1.42	^0.180	^-.0165927
^LPIBR	^-.3562018	^1.227356	^-0.29	^0.777	^-3.030381

^Interval]

^{1.578649 .0128293 .0013077 3.910485}

^Robust

^Interval]

^{1.462976 .8589306 .0034824 2.317978}

Analyse économétrique de la demande de monnaie dans l'Uemoa Page 75

-Niger

^p = ^0.6540 >= ^{0.2000 removing TIR p} = ^0.4819 >= ^{0.2000 removing TCM}

^{Linear regression Number of obs} = ¹⁶

^{F( 3, 12)} = ^414.58

^Prob > ^F = ^0.0000

^R-squared = ^0.9800

^{Root MSE} = .⁰⁴⁵⁶¹

		^t	^P>|t|
	^2.041676 .3185081	^6.41	^0.000	^1.347707
	^.279889 .1573747	^1.78	^0.101	^-.0630012
	^-.0063083 .0020757	^-3.04	^0.010	^-.0108308
	^-6.961984 1.735442	^-4.01	^0.002	^-10.74319
-Burkina Fasso
^Linear regression				^Number of obs
				^Prob > ^F
				^R-squared
^LMd ^Coef. Std. Err.				^[95% Conf. ^Root MSE
^LPIBR ^LCRED
^TINFL		^t	^P>|t|
^_cons	^2.263045 .1048155	^21.59	^0.000	^2.036605
	^-.0054238 .0029933	^-1.81	^0.093	^-.0118904
	^-2.882467 .6990282	^-4.12	^0.001	^F( 2, 13) ^-4.392626

^p = ^0.6701 >= ^{0.2000 removing LCRED p} = ^0.2207 >= ^{0.2000 removing TIR p} = ^0.3701 >= ^{0.2000 removing TCM}

-Togo

^Robust

^Robust

^LMd

^{Coef. Std. Err.}

^LPIBR

^TINFL

^_cons

^p = ^0.3613 >= ^{0.2000 removing TIR}

^p = ^0.4784 >= ^{0.2000 removing TINFL}

^Interval]

^2.735646

^-.0017858

^-3.18078

= ¹⁶
= ^321.95 = ^0.0000 = ^0.9680 = .⁰⁵²⁷⁷

^{[95% Conf.}

^Interval]

^2.489486

^-1.372309

^{Linear regression Number of obs} = ¹⁶

^{F( 3, 12)} = ^248.62

^Prob > ^F = ^0.0000

^R-squared = ^0.9781

^{Root MSE} = .⁰³⁴¹⁶

			^t	^P>|t|
	^1.051487	^.2277631	^4.62	^0.001	^.5552338
^LMd	^Coef. ^-.0002008	^Std. Err. ^.0001044	^-1.92	^0.078	^[95% Conf. ^-.0004283
	^.6585858	^.034872	^18.89	^0.000	^.5826061
^LPIBR	^-1.185514	^1.378253	^-0.86	^0.407	^-4.18847

^.6227791

^.0010428

^Robust

^Interval]

^{1.54774 .0000266 .7345654 1.817442}

Analyse économétrique de la demande de monnaie dans l'Uemoa Page 76

Analyse économétrique de la demande de monnaie dans l'Uemoa Page 77

Table des matières

DEDICACES ET REMERCIEMENTS i

SOMMAIRE ii

LISTES DES ANNEXE, GRAPHIQUES ET TABLEAUX iii

LISTES DES SIGLES ET ABRÉVIATIONS v

INTRODUCTION GENERALE 1