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The role of supply and use/input output tables in the perspective analysis of economic development of Rwanda with example

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par Jean Baptiste HABYARIMANA
National University of Rwanda - Bachelors degree in Applied Statistics  2010
  

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4.5.5. Human Development Index Analysis

HDI trend decreased from 1985 to 1994 due to war. This decrease was explained by the low GDP per capital, decrease in life expectance and low literacy level, Low investment, Low Export and high Import, Low productivity in Agricultural sector, and this period was characterized by Gini coefficient of 28.9 (1980) which shows how the income was highly unequally distributed among pupation.

HDI has increased from 1995 with the economic rehabilitation and reorientation, from since economic activities were boosted and the production begins to increase. These policies caused an increase in GDP per capita and the recent figures show that GDP per capita was 213.9 current $ in 2000 and 258.8 Current $ in 2005 to reach 458.5 current $ in 2008. The Gini coefficient increase from 28.9 in 1980 to 46.8 in 2007, with the life expectance at birth of 51 years in 2009, and in Education data of 2005-2008 show a Primary-Secondary gross enrolment ratio of women and men per 100 of 89.7 and 98.6 respectively. But, even though HDI experienced improvement, Rwanda is steal classified in Low Developed Countries at Rank 167 in 2006 with HDI lower than 0.5 (Republic of Rwanda, NISR: Statistical Yearbook 2009: 5-121; Human Development Report 2009).

Figure 4.2. Human Development Index Trend (1980-2005)

The Urban population growth from 2005 to 2009 was estimated to 4.2% against 2.4% in rural areas. These figures show that many person in Rwanda are concentrating in town where they are expecting good life (Sanitation and Hygiene), and due to those factors in 2007, 18% of population of Rwanda lived in urban areas. And the large wage gap between rural and urban population, especially for unskilled and semiskilled labour, is the main cause of that dramatic increase in number of people living in urban areas in Rwanda.

Consequently, this movement has an important contribution in redressing rural development, because flow of formal transfers from people living in urban areas back to their rural region of origin has been increased rapidly and has become the larges source of capital for many rural areas in Rwanda.

Figure 4.3. Evolution of Human Development Index

If the HDI in Rwanda continue to increase as it was increasing last 30 years, the HDI of Rwanda can exceed value of 0.5 in 30 years beyond the period of the study.

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