Annexes
Output pour modèle 1a
Dependent Variable: LBTR Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/21/07 Time: 18:10 Sample: 2003:01 2005:12 Included
observations: 36
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
13.68605
|
0.349796 39.12579
|
0.0000
|
|
LTXINFL
|
0.501 084
|
0.142222 3.523248
|
0.0012
|
|
R-squared
|
0.267451
|
Mean dependent var
|
14.84441
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.245905
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.825201
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.716594
|
Akaike info criterion
|
2.225337
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
17.45921
|
Schwarz criterion
|
2.313310
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-38.05606
|
F-statistic
|
12.41327
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.876421
|
Prob (F-statistic)
|
0.001239
|
Output pour modèle 1b
Dependent Variable: LBTR
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/21/07 Time: 18:10
Sample (adjusted): 2003:02 2005:12
Included observations: 35 after adjusting endpoints Convergence
achieved after 6 iterations
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
14.23860
|
0.558425 25.49780
|
0.0000
|
|
LTXINFL
|
0.307379
|
0.197082 1.559650
|
0.1287
|
|
AR (1)
|
0.567290
|
0.147429 3.847890
|
0.0005
|
|
R-squared
|
0.430751
|
Mean dependent var
|
14.89772
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.395173
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.771789
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.600225
|
Akaike info criterion
|
1.898793
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
11.52865
|
Schwarz criterion
|
2.032108
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-30.22888
|
F-statistic
|
12.10720
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.633303
|
Prob (F-statistic)
|
0.000122
|
|
Inverted AR Roots
|
.57
|
|
|
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 1.378788 0.267388
Probability
Obs*R-squared 2.946347 0.229197
Probability
ARCH Test:
F-statistic 0.357631 0.554034
Probability
Obs*R-squared 0.375783 0.539869
Probability
Output pour modèle 2a
Dependent Variable: LBTR Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/21/07 Time: 18:11 Sample: 2003:01 2005:12 Included
observations: 36
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
13.00905
|
0.774918 16.78766
|
0.0000
|
|
LTXCHG
|
0.291015
|
0.121156 2.401986
|
0.0219
|
|
R-squared
|
0.145074
|
Mean dependent var
|
14.84441
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.119929
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.825201
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.7741 39
|
Akaike info criterion
|
2.379821
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
20.37588
|
Schwarz criterion
|
2.467794
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-40.83678
|
F-statistic
|
5.769534
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.806861
|
Prob (F-statistic)
|
0.021916
|
Output pour modèle 2b
Dependent Variable: LBTR
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/21/07 Time: 18:11
Sample (adjusted): 2003:02 2005:12
Included observations: 35 after adjusting endpoints Convergence
achieved after 5 iterations
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
13.87870
|
0.61 71 68 22.48772
|
0.0000
|
|
LTXCHG
|
0.173876
|
0.086898 2.000921
|
0.0539
|
|
AR (1)
|
0.559973
|
0.132061 4.240254
|
0.0002
|
|
R-squared
|
0.456106
|
Mean dependent var
|
14.89772
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.422113
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.771789
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.586705
|
Akaike info criterion
|
1.853229
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
11.01514
|
Schwarz criterion
|
1.986544
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-29.431 50
|
F-statistic
|
13.41 751
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.714231
|
Prob (F-statistic)
|
0.000059
|
|
Inverted AR Roots
|
.56
|
|
|
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 1.279544 0.292911
Probability
Obs*R-squared 2.750939 0.252721
Probability
ARCH Test:
F-statistic 0.241507 0.626473
Probability
Obs*R-squared 0.254680 0.613799
Probability
Output pour modèle 3a
Dependent Variable: LBTR Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/21/07 Time: 18:12 Sample: 2003:01 2005:12 Included
observations: 36
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
12.32522
|
0.71 21 00 17.30828
|
0.0000
|
|
LTXCHG
|
0.233286
|
0.107966 2.160744
|
0.0381
|
|
LTXINFL
|
0.453306
|
0.136916 3.31 0833
|
0.0023
|
|
R-squared
|
0.358246
|
Mean dependent var
|
14.84441
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.319352
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.825201
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.680803
|
Akaike info criterion
|
2.148567
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
15.29525
|
Schwarz criterion
|
2.280527
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-35.67421
|
F-statistic
|
9.210778
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
0.946509
|
Prob (F-statistic)
|
0.000663
|
Output pour modèle 3b
Dependent Variable: LBTR
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/21/07 Time: 18:12
Sample(adjusted): 2003:02 2005:12
Included observations: 35 after adjusting endpoints Convergence
achieved after 7 iterations
|
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
|
C
|
13.25236
|
0.753415 17.58973
|
0.0000
|
|
LTXCHG
|
0.163572
|
0.085761 1.907298
|
0.0658
|
|
LTXINFL
|
0.275639
|
0.189038 1.458114
|
0.1549
|
|
AR(1)
|
0.544373
|
0.150335 3.621 066
|
0.0010
|
|
R-squared
|
0.492684
|
Mean dependent var
|
14.89772
|
|
Adjusted R-squared
|
0.443589
|
S.D. dependent var
|
0.771789
|
|
S.E. of regression
|
0.575700
|
Akaike info criterion
|
1.840751
|
|
Sum squared resid
|
10.27435
|
Schwarz criterion
|
2.018505
|
|
Log likelihood
|
-28.21 314
|
F-statistic
|
10.03532
|
|
Durbin-Watson stat
|
1.646734
|
Prob (F-statistic)
|
0.000089
|
|
Inverted AR Roots
|
.54
|
|
|
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 1.601266 0.21 8961
Probability
Obs*R-squared 3.480739 0.175456
Probability
ARCH Test:
F-statistic 0.128201 0.722656
Probability
Obs*R-squared 0.135670 0.712624
Probability
Les données relatives au taux d'inflation taux
de change, taux d'intérêt, circulation fiduciaire hors banque,
dépôts en devises, et souscription au billet de
trésorerie
|
Période
|
I PC
|
Tx
Inf
|
TX Chg
|
Txint7
|
Txint14
|
TxInt/28
|
tx7reel
|
tx14reel
|
tx28reel
|
CFHB
|
DépD
|
BTR
|
|
janv-03
|
97536013
|
0,8
|
414,29
|
6
|
26
|
26
|
7,5
|
32,5
|
32,5
|
49925654
|
41591338
|
433000
|
|
févr-03
|
98648594
|
2
|
417,11
|
6
|
26
|
26
|
3
|
13
|
13
|
49982675
|
41812703
|
1163000
|
|
mars-03
|
100707090
|
4,1
|
417,13
|
6
|
26
|
26
|
1,46341463
|
6,34146341
|
6,34146341
|
51410202
|
391637713
|
2015000
|
|
avr-03
|
102445075
|
5,9
|
415,98
|
6
|
26
|
26
|
1,01694915
|
4,40677966
|
4,40677966
|
52533703
|
43897112
|
3820000
|
|
mai-03
|
102916165
|
6,4
|
417,84
|
20
|
22
|
25
|
3,125
|
3,4375
|
3,90625
|
54118902
|
47494322
|
5983000
|
|
juin-03
|
105153860
|
8,6
|
422,69
|
20
|
22
|
25
|
2,3255814
|
2,55813953
|
2,90697674
|
56906449
|
48403212
|
6138000
|
|
juil-03
|
108460466
|
12,1
|
431,91
|
15
|
18
|
20
|
1,23966942
|
1,48760331
|
1,65289256
|
54067058
|
56748622
|
8757000
|
|
août-03
|
110068071
|
13,8
|
423,65
|
15
|
18
|
20
|
1,08695652
|
1,30434783
|
1,44927536
|
57917886
|
56510333
|
2357000
|
|
sept-03
|
108346388
|
12
|
382,97
|
15
|
18
|
20
|
1,25
|
1,5
|
1,66666667
|
58289008
|
46027755
|
1252000
|
|
oct-03
|
103327048
|
6,8
|
375,33
|
11
|
13
|
15
|
1,61764706
|
1,91176471
|
2,20588235
|
56038123
|
49538327
|
560000
|
|
nov-03
|
105345643
|
8,9
|
373,6
|
11
|
13
|
15
|
1,23595506
|
1,46067416
|
1,68539326
|
55383121
|
49995009
|
568000
|
|
déc-03
|
106414505
|
10
|
371,72
|
4
|
6
|
8
|
0,4
|
0,6
|
0,8
|
63148445
|
48107585
|
1110000
|
|
janv-04
|
107446341
|
1
|
379,2
|
4
|
6
|
8
|
4
|
6
|
8
|
60941124
|
46403930
|
1410000
|
|
févr-04
|
110642670
|
4,3
|
380,81
|
4
|
6
|
8
|
0,93023256
|
1,39534884
|
1,86046512
|
64460125
|
56951572
|
2068000
|
|
mars-04
|
115083390
|
8,2
|
383,63
|
4
|
6
|
8
|
0,48780488
|
0,73170732
|
0,97560976
|
63407730
|
64915988
|
3826000
|
|
avr-04
|
118038538
|
10,9
|
385,56
|
4
|
6
|
8
|
0,36697248
|
0,55045872
|
0,73394495
|
69585375
|
64658031
|
1206000
|
|
mai-04
|
118991006
|
11,8
|
386,94
|
4
|
6
|
8
|
0,33898305
|
0,50847458
|
0,6779661
|
69842778
|
65955316
|
806000
|
|
juin-04
|
122040425
|
14,7
|
388,29
|
4
|
6
|
8
|
0,27210884
|
0,40816327
|
0,54421769
|
75004666
|
68533032
|
2708000
|
|
juil-04
|
124270086
|
16,8
|
390,33
|
4
|
6
|
8
|
0,23809524
|
0,35714286
|
0,47619048
|
73815861
|
69277810
|
6304000
|
|
août-04
|
126787026
|
19,1
|
392,43
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
0,20942408
|
0,2617801
|
0,31413613
|
81361553
|
65801735
|
4382500
|
|
sept-04
|
129842935
|
22
|
411,3
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
0,31818182
|
0,36363636
|
0,40909091
|
87785364
|
69073920
|
3474000
|
|
oct-04
|
136175711
|
28
|
425,84
|
11
|
13
|
14
|
0,39285714
|
0,46428571
|
0,5
|
84823579
|
81565935
|
2362000
|
|
nov-04
|
137546978
|
29,3
|
432
|
11
|
13
|
14
|
0,37542662
|
0,44368601
|
0,4778157
|
89362588
|
80683347
|
2472000
|
|
déc-04
|
140186761
|
32,7
|
443,39
|
11
|
13
|
14
|
0,33639144
|
0,39755352
|
0,42813456
|
101467260
|
91789767
|
6596000
|
|
janv-05
|
147437292
|
5,2
|
447,27
|
20
|
24
|
29
|
3,84615385
|
4,61538462
|
5,57692308
|
95048066
|
116873579
|
1910000
|
|
févr-05
|
149025070
|
6,3
|
472,74
|
20
|
24
|
29
|
3,17460317
|
3,80952381
|
4,6031746
|
99536062
|
122467695
|
2712000
|
|
mars-05
|
152169207
|
8,6
|
495,9
|
65
|
69
|
74
|
7,55813953
|
8,02325581
|
8,60465116
|
102341529
|
134524918
|
10028000
|
|
avr-05
|
160564383
|
14,5
|
510,89
|
65
|
69
|
74
|
4,48275862
|
4,75862069
|
5,10344828
|
105168384
|
131658298
|
4039500
|
|
mai-05
|
161635348
|
15,3
|
510,71
|
65
|
69
|
74
|
4,24836601
|
4,50980392
|
4,83660131
|
103965443
|
122697066
|
3383000
|
|
juin-05
|
161108177
|
14,9
|
449,85
|
50
|
54
|
59
|
3,3557047
|
3,62416107
|
3,95973154
|
109673386
|
112924257
|
8224000
|
|
juil-05
|
164533767
|
17,4
|
490,64
|
31,8
|
36
|
40
|
1,82758621
|
2,06896552
|
2,29885057
|
108476500
|
124529372
|
5141500
|
|
août-05
|
163763952
|
16,8
|
485,11
|
41
|
45,99
|
50,99
|
2,43988095
|
2,7375
|
3,03511905
|
106220221
|
113223323
|
3351000
|
|
sept-05
|
165712738
|
18,2
|
466,33
|
35,8
|
40,75
|
45,75
|
1,96428571
|
2,23901099
|
2,51373626
|
111449909
|
117162931
|
4167000
|
|
oct-05
|
167729482
|
19,7
|
460,98
|
28,5
|
31,5
|
33,5
|
1,44670051
|
1,59898477
|
1,70050761
|
110750426
|
132049083
|
4127500
|
|
nov-05
|
168329569
|
20,1
|
455,8
|
28,5
|
31,5
|
33,5
|
1,41791045
|
1,56716418
|
1,66666667
|
106295230
|
135552380
|
5855500
|
|
déc-05
|
170620518
|
21,7
|
438,52
|
24,8
|
26,75
|
28,75
|
1,140553
|
1,23271889
|
1,32488479
|
119754946
|
123452041
|
8545000
|
Source : condensées statistiques de la banque centrale du
congo.
Le Billet de trésorerie (BTR) exprimé en milliers
des francs congolais
La Circulation fiduciaire hors banque (CFHB) exprimé en
milliers des francs congolais Les Dépôts en devise (DépD)
exprime en francs congolais par unité de dollar américain
61
La structure du portefeuille
|
portefeuille
|
prop/ BTR
|
prop/CFHB
|
prop/DepD
|
vérification
|
|
91949992
|
0,47090814
|
54,2965289
|
45,2325629
|
100
|
|
92958378
|
1,25109756
|
53,768876
|
44,9800264
|
100
|
|
445062915
|
0,45274498
|
11,5512212
|
87,9960338
|
100
|
|
100250815
|
3,81044284
|
52,4022702
|
43,7872869
|
100
|
|
107596224
|
5,56060406
|
50,2981424
|
44,1412535
|
100
|
|
111447661
|
5,50751801
|
51,0611425
|
43,4313395
|
100
|
|
119572680
|
7,32357927
|
45,216899
|
47,4595217
|
100
|
|
116785219
|
2,01823486
|
49,5935072
|
48,3882579
|
100
|
|
105568763
|
1,18595687
|
55,2142569
|
43,5997862
|
100
|
|
106136450
|
0,5276227
|
52,7981886
|
46,6741887
|
100
|
|
105946130
|
0,53612152
|
52,2747938
|
47,1890847
|
100
|
|
112366030
|
0,98784303
|
56,1988752
|
42,8132817
|
100
|
|
108755054
|
1,29649147
|
56,035211
|
42,6682975
|
100
|
|
123479697
|
1,67476925
|
52,2030152
|
46,1222155
|
100
|
|
132149718
|
2,89520103
|
47,9817369
|
49,1230621
|
100
|
|
135449406
|
0,89036935
|
51,3737026
|
47,7359281
|
100
|
|
136604094
|
0,59002624
|
51,1278805
|
48,2820932
|
100
|
|
146245698
|
1,8516784
|
51,2867503
|
46,8615713
|
100
|
|
149397671
|
4,21961063
|
49,4089771
|
46,3714123
|
100
|
|
151545788
|
2,89186526
|
53,6877693
|
43,4203655
|
100
|
|
160333284
|
2,16673663
|
54,7518031
|
43,0814602
|
100
|
|
168751514
|
1,39969115
|
50,2653736
|
48,3349352
|
100
|
|
172517935
|
1,4328945
|
51,7990132
|
46,7680923
|
100
|
|
199853027
|
3,30042537
|
50,7709398
|
45,9286348
|
100
|
|
213831645
|
0,89322607
|
44,4499531
|
54,6568208
|
100
|
|
224715757
|
1,20685796
|
44,2942067
|
54,4989353
|
100
|
|
246894447
|
4,06165474
|
41,4515313
|
54,486814
|
100
|
|
240866182
|
1,67707229
|
43,6625778
|
54,66035
|
100
|
|
230045509
|
1,47057859
|
45,1934243
|
53,3359971
|
100
|
|
230821643
|
3,56292412
|
47,5143425
|
48,9227334
|
100
|
|
238147372
|
2,15895727
|
45,5501562
|
52,2908865
|
100
|
|
222794544
|
1,50407633
|
47,6763116
|
50,8196121
|
100
|
|
232779840
|
1,79010347
|
47,8778184
|
50,3320782
|
100
|
|
246927009
|
1,67154659
|
44,8514832
|
53,4769702
|
100
|
|
247703110
|
2,36391864
|
42,9123518
|
54,7237295
|
100
|
|
251751987
|
3,39421353
|
47,56862
|
49,0371665
|
100
|
Source : condensées statistiques de la banque centrale du
congo.
|
|
