Marchés boursiers et croissance économique. Une analyse comparative entre l'Afrique subsaharienne et l'Asie du sud-est.

ABSTRACT

This study aims to determine the relationship between stock market development and economic growth in developing countries through: Panel analysis technics, in a model relating to the rate of economic growth and three stock market indicators: Market capitalization, market liquidity in terms of economy and the stock market in terms of liquidity. Methods Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS) and the Ordinary Least Frames (OLS) are used to estimate our panel model. Our sample consists of two groups of developing countries: Four Sub-Saharan African countries (South Africa, Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria) and four Southeast-Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand). The period of analysis covers 23 years, from 1988 to 2010. The SSA's results indicate the absence of a significant relationship between stock market development and economic activity. A unidirectional relationship between market capitalization and economic growth is identified in SA, ranging from finance to growth. Still in SA, there is a bidirectional relationship between the turnover ratio and growth. Finally both, SSA and SA, have no significant relationship between their market liquidity ratio, in terms of economy and real sector. In general these results indicate that the stock market development exerts an ambiguous effect on economic growth, which differs according to the stock market development index used between the different groups of countries. The lack of a significant relationship between finance and growth in SSA is due to the presence of threshold effects, linked both in the stock development in terms of economic growth achievement. These results suggest that, proactive policies, incentives from the state and additional efforts on the part of the financial markets' authorities, must be enforced to increase the supply and demand for financial securities, in order to strengthen the link between stock markets and economic growth, in these developing countries.

Keywords: Stocks Markets, Economic Growth, Panel data, direction of the relationship, threshold effects, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Southeast Asia (SA).

LISTE DES ABREVIATIONS

AFD : Agence Française de Développement

ASEA : African Securities Exchanges Association

ASEAN : Association des nations de l'Asie du Sud-Est

ASS : Afrique Sub-saharienne

ASE : Asie du Sud-Est

BRVM : Bourse Régionale des Valeurs mobilières

BVMAC : Bourse des Valeurs Mobilières d'Afrique Centrale

CEMAC : Communauté Economique et Monétaire d'Afrique Centrale

DA : Dragons Asiatiques

DSX : Douala Stock Exchange

EGX : Egyptian Exchange

FCFA : Franc de la Coopération Financière d'Afrique

FSEG : Faculté des Sciences Economique et de Gestion

ISE: Indonesia Stock Exchange

IDE: Investissement Direct Etranger

IPO: Initial Public Offering

JSE: Johannesburg Stock Exchange

GSE: Ghana Stock Exchange

MCGF : Moindres Carrés Généralisés Faisables

MCO: Moindres Carrés Ordinaires

MENA: Middle East and North Africa

NSE: Nairobi Stock Exchange

NSE: Nigeria Stock Exchange

NPI: Nouveau Pays Industrialisés

OCDE : Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economique

PIB: Produit Intérieur Brut

PED: Pays en Développement

PVD: Pays en voie de Développement

PSE: Philippine Stock Exchange

SEM: Stock Exchange of Mauritius

SET: Stock Exchange of Thailand

S&P: Standard and Poor's

TA : Tigres Asiatiques

UEMOA : Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest-Africaine

VAR: Vectors Autoregressive

WDI: World Development Indicators

WFE: World Federation Exchanges