La biomasse, activité alternative au développement des zones rurales

3- The role of energy diversification

These last years, the demand for electricity increased more quickly than all the other forms of energy. The prospects for growth of the applicant countries are still higher than those of the Member States. Electricity should increase by 3% per annum^44(*) from here 2020. In the applicant countries, the rate of replacement or the modernization of the outputs electric, difficult to evaluate, should be important in reasons of the obscôlenscence of a great part of the park. In theory, the park of power stations, whose capacity is for the time being surplus, should be largely modernized and part of the fed power stations with solid fuels is likely to be replaced by power stations with gas. However, an increase in the prices of gas on the international market could slow down the decisions of investment and to support maintains it on the one hand solid fuels and nuclear power in these countries.

The development of the nuclear power is conditioned by the efforts authorized as regards safety in the countries concerned. It is observed that in the applicant countries, the share of the nuclear power decreases in mix energetics and would currently pass from 15% to 8,1% about 2020^45(*).

Renewable energies as the firewood or the hydroelectricity occupies a modest place in our economies. They represent a more significant share in the applicant countries.

* ⁴⁴ European Energy Outlook to 2020: figures on the basis of 7 Central European country other than Bulgaria, the Slovak Republic and Romania

* ⁴⁵ This rate takes account at the same time of the growth of the request and of the forecasts of closing and modernization of the nuclear thermal power stations, Livre green  for a Community strategy, «  Energy for the future  : renewable sources of energy  », p31