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Analyse comparative des déterminants macro-économiques du risque financier: un essai d'investigation empirique

( Télécharger le fichier original )
par Didier Jol Kama N'GBESSO
Université d'Auvergne Clermont- Ferrand1, centre d'études et de recherches sur le développement international - Master 2 économie et développement international 2011
  

précédent sommaire suivant

3.3.2. Graphiques de corrélation entre l'indicateur ICRG du risque financier et les différentes variables macroéconomiques utilisées dans notre étude.

Commentaires :

a) On constate une relation linéaire positive entre le taux de croissance de PIE par tête et l'indicateur ICRG du risque financier dans les 2 catégories de pays mais cette relation est plus forte dans les pays à hauts revenus. Ce qui permet de conclure à une relation linéaire négative entre le taux de croissance de PIE par tête et le risque dans les 2 catégories de pays.

b) On constate une relation linéaire positive entre le PIE réel par tête et l'indicateur ICRG du risque financier dans les 2 catégories de pays mais cette relation est plus forte dans les pays à hauts revenus. Ce qui permet de conclure à une relation linéaire négative entre le taux de croissance de PIE par tête et le risque financier dans les 2 catégories de pays, la relation étant négativement plus forte dans les pays à moyens et faibles revenus.

c) Aucune relation linéaire entre l'inflation et le risque financier dans les pays à moyens et faibles revenus.

Relation linéairement négative entre l'inflation et l'indicateur du risque financier dans les pays à hauts revenus, d'où relation linéairement positive entre l'inflation et le risque financier dans les pays à hauts revenus.

d) Il n'y a pas de relation linéaire entre le taux d'intérêt et le risque financier aussi bien dans les pays à hauts revenus que dans les pays à moyens et faibles revenus.

e) Aucune relation linéaire entre le crédit domestique au privé et le risque financier dans les pays à hauts revenus.

Relation positive entre le crédit domestique au secteur privé et l'indicateur ICRG du risque financier dans les pays à moyens et faibles revenus, d'où on a une relation linéaire négative entre le crédit domestique au secteur privé et le risque financier dans les pays à moyens et faibles revenus.

f) Relation linéairement positive entre le taux de croissance du crédit et l'indicateur ICRG du risque financier dans les pays à moyens et faibles revenus. On a donc une relation linéairement négative entre le taux de croissance du crédit et le risque financier dans les pays à moyens et faibles revenus.

Aucune relation linéaire entre le taux de croissance du crédit et le risque financier dans les pays à hauts revenus.

g) On a une relation linéaire positive assez forte entre la balance courante et l'indicateur ICRG du risque financier dans les pays à moyens et faibles revenus, donc on a une relation négative assez forte entre la balance courante et le risque financier dans les pays à moyens et faibles revenus. Cette relation est aussi négative entre les pays à hauts revenus et le risque financier mais la relation est moins forte.

h) Relation linéaire négative entre la masse monétaire rapportée aux réserves internationales et l'indicateur ICRG du risque financier dans les pays à hauts revenus, donc on a une relation linéaire positive entre la masse monétaire rapportée aux réserves internationales et l'indicateur ICRG du risque financier dans les pays à hauts revenus.

Aucune relation linéaire entre la masse monétaire rapportée aux réserves internationales et l'indicateur ICRG du risque financier dans les pays à moyens et faibles revenus.

i) Les termes de l'échange ajustés n'ont aucun effet linéaire sur le risque financier dans les 2 catégories de pays.

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Phlipps Indo c R. ArEgy.

Egyp. Domw BvB Indos e Isl Egyt

Eypt. y LibyLy

yyy p y

0 10000 20000 30000

0 10 20 30 40 50

riskfin

infl

Fitted values

Taux de croissance du PIB - risque financier dans les PHR PIB réel par tête - risque financier dans les PHR Inflation - risque financier dans les PMFR

Liberia

Iraq

Lebanon

Sierra Leone

Iraq

Liberia Liberia

Sierra Leone Mozambique

Malwi

Papua New Guinea

Botswana

Sudan Iran. Islamic Rep I. slc

Liberia Jordan

Ht Domn l

Pr BlChna China

Angola Angola Angola

AlAnl

Angoa Togo

Papa Nw Gna

Agn Argtin

Venezuela. RB

Ethiopia n o o Rb Rulc

PP Angola

Mynmar

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MymrMyM Domia Rbi

gria

l Mli Ci Ch

Uruguy

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had

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tl

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xco xo

xc

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co ico Ms

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Mw MMalsia

Ira Ismc Rp.

Irn. Islamic Rep.

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li

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mb mib mi

kn

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m n ii

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g e Ppa N Guinea

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Congo. Dem. Rep.

Hai Jordn

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Mlaysia

Mexico

Mexic

Morocco

Morocc

Nigr

Nmibia

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p Nw Ginea

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y R Fratio deration

ls u Rssian Russin Russian Russin

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g y

y y guay

ggu rgy

s

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PrguyPraguay

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Fderation Fdration Federation Fedration

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Federation

Sie o y
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omami

b Ri mandn on

Romnia Paguay

Nig

Nicaragu

Peru Peru

PhiipinsPhilipines

Mal Zimbabw

Russian Federation

Romania us Fderation

na ut g ff ca

k nk nk a Venezuela. RB RB

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Sudn

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Syian Arab Republic yi Ab epublic

u da

inme

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Sn Arb epubc

puic

rab eubic ubic

n rb rb rab Arab Syrin Ar public

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pubic Rpublic epublic

Z Tand

d alnd

guay

R

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Sierra Leone

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Sierra Lone yi Aab Republi

Sudn Sudan

Surinam

g abweZa

Tn T g Sya Arab Republic

Syian Arab Rplic Rssin Federation

Syrian Arab Republic

ibwe

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go urky

Tgo

g gay ugy uuay Urguay

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Z Zmba ambi Vneula. RB

Tukey

amb Trky Turky

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m p. p n. en. men. Rep. Rep. Rep

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ussia Federtion

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Venezuela. RB RB

Zambia

Suriname Panama Russian Feeration

Lithuani

Mada

Liberia Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone Togo Gabon

Angola

Liberia

Guinea-Bissau

Lebanon

Liberia

0 10 20 30 40 50

riskfin

pibgrwth Fitted values

-50 0 50 100

Iraq

Lebanon

Liberia

Liberia

Iraq

-200 0 200 400 600 800

 
 
 
 

Israel Israel

Polnd

Israel PolndPolandPoandPolan Brune

HungayHHa

u ca Huga H H Iceland

elndccln
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lad I Sud Sa d Arab rb

gy Bhrin Bhr r gpgpgpo

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p y g Uit

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Saudi Saud Arabia Arbi Sudi Ari Be D

United Aab Emirates KKwat a

Qatar Saudi Arbia

Kuwait Oman Saud Abia

Brunei Daru

10 20 30 40 50

riskfin

infl Fitted values

 
 

Gabon Lithuania

Gabon Lithuania

Gabon

Gabon Gabon Lithuania Libya LibyaLibya LibyaLibya

Lithuai

Gabon nGabon abon Gabon

Gabon Lithuania Russian Federa

Russian Fed

Gabon Gabon n Russian Federatio
GabonGabonGabnGbon Gabon Gabon

Argenti Argt

Chile Mico exic Mexic Russian Fe

Lithua

Gabon Chile alysia Malaysia Malaysi Botswan

Argnina Botswa
Mexico

Romni ChilhileChileChleCheCil

Lebano Mexco Mexici exico MexicoMexicoMexico

Malaysa otsan

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Libya LbyLbyLibya Lbya

Panama Panam Russin Feder

Venezuela. RB RB RB Bugria Bulgaria Botswana Tkey e Turke

ugy Uruguay

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la

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rgentina LbanonLboArgentina ArgentinaArgentinArgentia Lebao Lebon n Ira

Rs n s C ota t osta R ic ca i R Rc Rca Botswna

nia Romania Romania RomaniaRmani Agti B Ba a Peru Pru Malaysia

oania

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n n BwBswana

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tan uli
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lmbia oobia C b obob ob Coobia

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y y y yyKya y y

t tt HtHitHiHit

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scr s dc Mlaw

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. . . . .

 
 

-10000 0 10000 20000 30000

eration tion a deration a on ation ep. Rep. Rep.

ep.ep. Rep. ic

a

lic

0 10 20 30 40 50

riskfin

pib Fitted values

Taux de croissance du PIB - risque financier dans les PMFR PIB réel par tête - risque financier dans les PMFR Inflation - risque financier dans les PHR

-100 0 100 200 300 400

 
 
 

Israel

Israel

Kuwait

Oman Kuwait Trinidad a

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ths

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pblc

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KuwaitKuwai lta Nehds M M hrl

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man Omn Brnei Bru

Iceland Kuat KuaitKui

it uit

Oman Unted Arab Emirte
Slovak Republic

Qatar Oman

New New Zelnd Zealan Brunei

10 20 30 40 50

riskfin

txint

Fitted values

-200 0 200 400 600 800

 

Nicaragua

 
 

Peru Uruguay

Bulgaria

Rusian Rusn Fderation Federation

Per Iraq

Congo. Rep. Ecadr Ecor

Monga

Brazl BraziBai Brazil Brazil Brazil Bl

Cong. Re

Ecuador Ecuadoru EcadEuadoEcdrEcuador

Ar Ecuador Ecudor A Angola Libya

Gbon

oo Re

Malawi BrlBrzilBralBrazi

C Cgo Cno D Gabon Uruguay

BB B i i olivi li oa ivi

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am Ni

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M Ct

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C C C R R

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Sierra Leone Bulgaria

Guyna

Zimbabwe

Angola Angola Suriname

Bulgaria

AnolaAngola Suriname

Liberia

Bolivia Bolivia Nicaragua Nicaragua Nicaragua

0 10 20 30 40 50

riskfin

txint Fitted values

0 50000 100000 150000

10 20 30 40 50

riskfin

PolaPolanP

Poland Polad Kuwait

United United United

Unite

Un S A S

crdipvé Fitted values

PortugalPortugalPortugalPortug Portugal orua

Portugal

Spain SpainSpain Spain Spin pain pain Spain Spain

Portugal

orua Portugal Portugal Portugal Portugal

Lxm

Lux

Bl

Bl

Bl A B i i eg

B gim Bl Be A i L B i

ItalyItalyItaly Italy

Italy
Italy Italy

ItalyItaly Italy

Italy

Italy
Italy
Italy

Taux d'intérêt - risque financier dans les PHR Taux d'intérêt - risque financier dans les PMFR Crédit domestique - risque financier dans les PHR

Guyana

Sri Lanka

Zambia

Nicaragua

Malaysia

Costa Rica

Liberia Morocco

Sudan Guinea-Bissau Suriname South Africa

Sierr Leone Ghana

Gune-Bssau

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Paraguay

Myanma

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Nigeri

Nmibia

Iraq

Malaysia

Bolivia Botswana

Algeria ea lic

crdigrwth Fitted values

-2000 -1000 0 1000 2000

0 10 20 30 40 50

riskfin

olivia Bolivia Boliv Age Boliv Argt BArgntiB BAg lh

Av A A At

Al l Al A A razl l

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s

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Fedrtion Islamic

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edation Fedtion Algria Fedration

Federation

crdipvé Fitted values

-2 0 2 4 6 8

 

Tanzania

 
 
 
 

0 10 20 30 40 50

riskfin

n

0 500 1000 1500

10 20 30 40 50

riskfin

crdigrwth Fitted values

PolaPolandPolnd

Poland United

United United United Unite Arb Saudi Saudi Arab Arb Saudi Aab QatQt Unite Saud Arabi N Emits Arab Emt

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Crédit domestique au privé - risque financier dans les PMFR Taux de croissance du crédit - risque financier dans les PMFR Taux de croissance du crédit - risque financier dans les PHR

-300 -200 -100 0 100

10 20 30 40 50

riskfin

Kuwait Kwait Ku

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Kuwait

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i

-50 0 50

0 10 20 30 40 50

riskfin

Angola

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Botswana Iraq Nigeria Libya

Sierra Leone Iraq Nigeria

Gabon Angola

Congo. Rep. Nigeria

Suriname Venezuel. RB

Gabon Botswan

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Jordan Papua New uinea

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Guinea Bissau

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Balance courante - risque financier dans les PHR Balance courante - risque financier dans les PMFR M2/réserves - risque financier dans

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0 10 20 30 40 50

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Indonesia

Indonesia

Indonesia

Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia

Indonesia Indoesia

Indonesia

Iran. Iran. Islamic Ilamic Rep. Rep.

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Indonesia

Iran. Islamic Rep.

Iran. Islamic Rep. Iran. Islamic Rep.

Iran. Islamic Rep.

Iran. Islamic Rep.

les PMFR

-50 0 50 100 150 200

10 20 30 40 50

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Poland Poland

Poland

PolandPoland

Poland

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Kuwait

United United Unied Uited Unite Arb rb A

Saudi Saud Sa

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Bhri

Bhrin Cyprps

Cypr Cc Cc Cec Czch c Cys Czc Cz y Cz Rpuic RR b R y Bhr D D h B D

.

a uwi

Ku

aIel

r cln to re Kua Rp Kre. Rp. K K p p p

y gry ng Hgy gy

Hgy

ra HungryHungry

Hunry

Estosti

Hunary

un

Hun gy gy gy Hnay Hy

Esti En

Esnia

s Hugry

Hry

Ho g g H g g

y l

I K

Kuwait Omn Omn Om Omn

Mlta MltaMalta Malt l a Mt Mt Mt N M lt Mlt

tQ Sa va Sk lovak loak Sve

P d ld P d

lovei p lovelk p ove l lvni Rbli

Singapore Singor Om Om Om a Om Sv Pla oa Polan Pn epuc Republ

Sigpor a ol epic Sve SgorSin Republc Slov

Slovn Rpublc Oman Oa Oma Om Om

Trindad

Trad ad n Toba g go

Tr g Trinidad

U Trinidad Ue n Ue

Triid

A

United States

United States

Canada

United United Sats States United States

Canada

United United Staes States

United States

United United State States

United Sttes United

anaCanada

Canada Australia Australia Canada Canada

Canada

Canad anaa

Australia

Trinida and Tobgo

B Austali

Australia
Australi

Slovak Repub Australi Austrl

B Bh h Te T Bahms

ew Nw New Zl Nw Zealnd l

dad Tobg

cead clan Ic

Hngay

Kor Kore. R Korea R

New a eldIaIend

riid o Bah

Zean Zed

Ie Pol Q S wd

h Q B a S B

ada lic

ep d am Aus h a A Ba a a

nds h T N t e

Japan

Japan

Japan

Japan Japan Japan

Japan Japan Japan

Japan

Japan Japan Japan Japan States

anada Canada Canad

Caada Canaa Canaa United Sates

aan

Japan United United United Staes States States

ma

e h T The hs Th The Th

li Austrlia

ustrl

alia Austi

Austali

Japan Jp

w Zealand

st s us Ausrlia

CanadCanada Canada anaa

Canada

Bi Bu Brunei Bruei runi

h i Bu Daussalam

Dslm

Brunei

Duslm

Brunei

Darusslam Darussalm

nmk nk

a k p wwrussl

Darusalam

u S a i Aora Re

ago b b an

l e d Szd irld d Siz

. . . . g. g. C hn g. Ch ng ChChn Chn ChiChin

Jn Jap n . . . . oe. a Jp . Rp. Rp. . ep. Rep. Rp. Darussalam Om y y y y y

e N N

ys lc us c Znd Z Dmark

p . e.

ln

w Kuk mrk emrk Kuwit

Zal

SinpoSngp

i Singpre

poegpoa nd g Trid TSingp

ud Tni a Trd go o Trinid nd Tgo d nd nd Tg Tobgo Tobgo

i ngpoe Saudi

Singpoe Sudi

a d b ab Arb

Arbi Su

Sweden b rts Arb Emirats mirates Saudi Arabi d Eirtes

rl

Swzerland

at mirtes and erland Singpor

tzeland

Emirats

d Switzelnd

ir
Emires

ArabArabi Arabi

irt

itzerland Emirates Switzerland Emirates

Emirates

Tobago Tobago

-5.00e,13 0 5.00e+13

 
 
 

Korea. Rep.

Korea. Rep. Korea. Rep.

Korea. Rep. Korea. Rep

Korea. Rep Korea. Rep Korea. Rep Korea. Korea. Re R

Korea. Rep. Korea. Rep.

Korea. Rep.

Korea. Korea. Rep. Rep.

Korea. Rep.

Korea. Rep. Korea. Rep.

Korea. Rep.

Japan an Japa

Japan JapnJpn Jp Sd

Arb

Ara

Iceland

Repc Ch B. GJap

ory oy

A Bu Kuwt ZealaSwz D G Ch g. B Dk

New Zealand Rplic Unit

Gec Kuwt Zealan
H
ung

Slov and Tbag Slk

Icl clCypCys

Esi HGC Gc N Netherls

GGreIclclIc .

AsrTh Th AsEsHuGCzch

Portug

FiFAuHy

Slovk

HAsAi TrinidRubc and Untd a Slovi

Gc HEsAl Aui Bm. Luxmboug

Ic Fi Swiz d Un Aab

Ice Huy Gec Esi Iy IyIy ly I

Dmk

Zealand

F HEGcG

Swed ni ts lovk Units lvk Tri wed Unlk p lvk Stas p d rid UiPoln Potugl

FcFGm

Poand Om P PTrinid lvi

E Fn GCzch E AIIc CzF E Czh

NethrlasN

Iss Luxmr

IThbBhHCzBm.

s Spai

Fc CFizc C . n I GrI Porugal Omn

Iy I IsAG. F CyFrc Luxmburg

Dk Zeal Luxbg

HRbIcI Swd tts

Bh. ZealaKi

Zealand GC Is Is Il Is To Em T S
Bhs.

Zeald ZeaNehrs

Poug C yFz

Ic z

paiSpp Swedw

B.

PoalaPPrug

Gm H Ko.

Slvi UnRepubc ts ovk wd tas Uk ts Repulic

cl H Gm t

KigdSlvk lov

Al

Swe

C Hg Hg Gm ABh.

ebla Stas Republc

Hy IyII AuA T BGFC

King

Cd

NtlLuxmRpbc Spai DGy Tbo Cy Dk Luxmug

Ir Dk

Kore. Rp.

At

Tobgo

Dk

Luxembg

Ic zRpH Cys

Kai Zald N N Netherlans
IrRpc
Emir

Ast As h Em UniArb

rd KZeal

Dk Kingdo Unt r d ArEmirt

Em Sw

Fh Ic zGy LuxeNthel

. Dr

Zea MalZeland Irl Kingd
PolndPP CyHDk

PortuglPoug rlI F AsT ATh Bh.

Portug Dk

Portug Fc

Slve Ir h Dk Stat

SpaiS King wi

Tobg UniSlvk we IFiRpSi

Trind Asi

NthlNethrls Sw

Nethl CwUTb b Km U UTgm

Polad Ild IIlIeIy Iy Slvlv FFc Rpubcv

H l T h AsAs

SlovenKingm UtPol Om Pold Pl OmO Omm

Trinai Sz

taes KingTri Cd zh FDk

Swdn IFGy

SwUnie Cd c C iH Dk

obag ASwzFiH Dk sT s sAAT s

Ca

ehrls

Kg. Cys Rpc Cy H Fc K Ch Rpc HCSwizl

Nethes s

Kigdo Utwizl Pgl Om Om Omn Uii

Reblc Ui Reblc pin pin Si Tbo UniSw and Kingdo Sin and Rplc Sd

Ab

Lmb Luxmbrg

Lux T b

Dk Prtual

Sd AUTUJpJ Jp . g. B . Bu C

New MaltaMalNe Kwait Unit A Tb Ab A Fc

Slovenia United Fc K. Ch Ch Bi

Portg GDmk

Bhm. AAi Porugl y Portgl owyw

Arb Unitd SwdTrinid Switzerl Kin

GreGc Lux Kui

Switzld

Luxem

NtrZeaan Emr

NehlSwzl

Luxe

NorwyNwy

Emira

NthKngo Emis ad Ue Emrs Bu ethl

Bahi Gm n

Du

Bhm. Auli wtzl

Poland Pola Om Potugl Oman Porugl Om Porug Swtzl

New New Nw New Zel Nw New Zel Nw l uxeb
Icelcld Grc Eso

Trinida i D D C D D

Trinida Trindad Trindd UnitUniTrind ad TridUnitd d Unit d UniUnied Sp Uite Sts Tbg Ses nd T b Triipi n Tba vk es SwSwe Tb as Ui Slvk Kigdo

PolndPortugPrtu Unitd

GmD BCh C . BCh Kigdo Du Tob

C Bu Unied

MaltaMaltMt Ch

HugyGec Cy LxmKuiKr ory owy r oy

Dk K. CyUDk h . Hyps

Hungy ICypy

Ice Greec rec GreeceGecGHugry Hugry gy

Japan Japan

Japan Japan

Korea. Rep.

Japn

Japan

Korea. Rep.

Japan

Japan

Korea. Rep.

Korea. Rep.

10 20 30 40 50

riskfin

tech Fitted values

.

.

.

M2/réserves - risque financier dansles PHR Termes de l'échange ajustés - risque financier dans les PHR Termes de l'échange ajustés - risque financier dans les PMFR

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