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Impact du risque politique sur les investissements directs étrangers en Afrique subsaharienne

( Télécharger le fichier original )
par Didier Jol Kama N'GBESSO
Université d'Auvergne Clermont- Ferrand1, centre d'études et de recherches sur le développement international - Master 2 2010
  

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CONCLUSION

Notre étude a analysé l'impact du risque politique sur les flux nets d'entrées d'investissements directs étrangers dans 31 pays d'Afrique Subsaharienne sur la période 1984-2008. Nous avons utilisé l'indicateur agrégé du risque politique de l'International Country Risk Guide comme proxy du risque politique dans notre étude. Les résultats indiquent une relation significativement et hautement positive entre cet indicateur et les flux d'IDE. On a donc une relation négative entre le risque politique et les investissements directs étrangers en Afrique Subsaharienne. En effet, une augmentation d'une unité du risque politique en Afrique Subsaharienne diminue les influx d'investissements directs étrangers de 0.10 unité toutes choses égales par ailleurs. En plus, le résultat obtenu est robuste dans toutes les estimations de notre modèle. La plupart des études se sont focalisées sur des aspects particuliers du risque politique. L'avantage de notre modèle, c'est que le risque politique prend en compte tous les aspects essentiels (instabilité du gouvernement, conflits internes, corruption,.. ) qui impactent sur la décision d'investissement d'un étranger dans les pays d'Afrique Subsaharienne. Peu d'études ont traité l'impact du risque politique sur les IDE en Afrique Subsaharienne. Cette étude a donc permis d'avoir une idée précise de l'impact du risque politique globale sur les IDE exclusivement en Afrique Subsaharienne. Aussi les dirigeants Africains devraient prendre en compte tous les 12 composantes de cet indicateur du risque politique pour pouvoir diminuer son impact sur les influx d'IDE. Le résultat obtenu a donc l'avantage de ne négliger aucun aspect dur risque politique.

Cependant, ce même résultat n'intervient pas sur l'aspect microéconomique en Afrique Subsaharienne. D'autres études pourraient être réalisées dans certains secteurs particuliers de l'Afrique Subsaharienne tels que celui des mines et du pétrole, des manufactures ou même celui de l'agriculture. En plus, nous n'avons pu inclure certaines variables telles que celles relatives au capital humain fautes de données suffisantes. Certains pays d'Afrique Subsaharienne manquaient aussi de données suffisantes pour être inclues dans l'étude.

Toutes ces remarques, prises en compte, pourraient apporter d'autres informations sur le risque politique en Afrique Subsaharienne.

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