4.2.1.1.3 Evolution of some weighty
indicators of the external debt from 1980 to 2008
4.2.1.1.3.1 Evolution of the outstanding external debt / GDP
The approach by this ratio shows that over 100% of the GDP was
needed to repay the debt if it became due in 2000. Chart N°1 in Appendix 1
shows that the debt-equity ratio was greater than 50% (critical threshold) over
the period from 1980 to 2008. We deduce that the level of external debt is very
high because beyond 50%.
However, from 2001, this ratio decreased gradually. This
improvement was due to the depreciation of the dollar against the euro.
4.2.1.1.3.2 2. Evolution of the ratio of external debt
service /exports
The evolution of this ratio (chart 2, appendix 1) shows a saw
tooth evolution. A cyclical phenomenon can also be deduced from this. Its
improvement over time can be explained by the depreciation of the currencies in
which the loans granted to Togo are denominated.
Prior to 1997, this ratio was above the critical threshold of
20%.Then, the trend has reversed. Thus the burden of debt service has not
resulted in reduced consumption possibilities and productive investment in the
nation since 1997.
4.2.1.1.3.3 Evolution of the external debt / exports
ratio
The external debt / exports ratio was almost always higher
than the threshold of 200% (chart N°3, appendix 2).The graphical analysis
of this ratio enables to notice that the weight on the national economy was
almost always heavy. Below the threshold before 1989, this ratio has evolved
and reached its highest level at about 500% in 1993.This ratio shows a downward
trend. Since 2004, this ratio has been below critical level.
4.2.1.1.3.4 Evolution of external public debt to GDP
Graph N°4 in appendix 2 shows the curve of service debt
to GDP. It shows a good performance of our repayments capacity from 2000 to
2006.This can be explained by the increase in GDP over the period. Given this
graph, it appears that the payment of debt service in Togo has not dramatically
worsened the already precarious situation of the economy and the population.
The ratio is very low between 2000 and 2006. It did not capture the large share
of government revenues.
4.2.1.1.3.5 Evolution of the degree of openness
The degree of openness is calculated by the following formula
(exports + imports) /GDP). The observation of the trend (graph 5, Appendix 2)
between 1980 and 2008 reveals a downward trend. This trend reflects the
difficulties of the country to acquire foreign currencies that can allow it to
facilitate the repayment of the debt charges. The highest openness degree was
reached in 1982 and the lowest was observed in 1993.Since 2006, the trend went
downward again. As reasons, we can mention among others, the increase in oil
prices, floods and their consequences (broken bridges, soaring of foodstuffs
prices).
4.2.1.1.3.6 Evolution of export in relation to GDP
Chart N°6 in appendix 3 shows the release of foreign
currencies in relation to the resource base of a downtrend. Between 1980 and
2008, an average of 50.4% of GDP was allocated to imports. Given that imports
deteriorate the trade balance with a significant decrease in the ratio of
reserves to imports, national income should find itself reduced by the game of
the multiplier effect of foreign trade; this has resulted in an increase of
external debt for their financing.
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