2.1. Countries' political, demographic
and economic profile
The following table summarize political risks and some key
socio economic indicators of West African countries (15 Ecowas member states).
Political risks are mainly the type outside government control risks.
Table 2: Countries' political, demographic and
economic profile
|
Countries
|
Political risks *
|
Level of political risk
|
Population (2006)
|
GDP per capita
|
Growth rate (%)
|
HDI
|
|
Benin
|
· Revolution (1980)
· Coup d'etat (1980)
|
Highest
|
8 700 000
|
510
|
4
|
0.428
|
|
Burkina Faso
|
· Revolution (1983)
· Coup d'etat (1986)
· Nationalization
|
Highest
|
13 600 000
|
400
|
5
|
0.342
|
|
Capo Verde
|
· Revolution
|
Highest
|
500 000
|
1 870
|
5
|
0.722
|
|
Cote d'Ivoire
|
· Coup d'etat (1999)
· Civil war (2002)
· Public violence
|
Highest
|
20 000 000
|
840
|
0
|
0.421
|
|
Gambia
|
· Human right issues
|
Highest
|
1 500 000
|
290
|
5
|
0.479
|
|
Ghana
|
· Coup d'etat (1980s)
· Revolution
|
High
|
22 600 000
|
450
|
6
|
0.532
|
|
Guinea
|
· Revolution (1960)
· Strikes (2007)
|
Highest
|
9 800 000
|
370
|
3
|
0.445
|
|
Guinea Bissau
|
· Coup d'etat (2000)
· Wars
|
Highest
|
1 400 000
|
180
|
4
|
0.349
|
|
Liberia
|
· Coup d'etat (1985)
· Wars (1995)
· Terrorism
|
Highest
|
3 400 000
|
130
|
5
|
n.a
|
|
Mali
|
· Secessionism
· Coup d'etat (1992)
|
Highest
|
13 900 000
|
380
|
5
|
0.338
|
|
Niger
|
· Coup d'etat (2000)
|
Highest
|
14 400 000
|
240
|
5
|
0.311
|
|
Nigeria
|
· Coup d'etat (1980s)
· Wars (Biafra)
· Religious faction
|
Highest
|
134 500 000
|
560
|
7
|
0.448
|
|
Senegal
|
· Secessionism
|
High
|
11 900 000
|
710
|
6
|
0.460
|
|
Sierra Leone
|
· Coup d'etat (1999)
· Terrorism (2000)
· Wars ( prior 2002)
|
Highest
|
5 700 000
|
220
|
8
|
0.335
|
|
Togo
|
· Political crisis
· One year long strikes (1992)
|
Highest
|
6 300 000
|
350
|
3
|
0.495
|
|
AVERAGE
|
|
|
17 880 000
|
503.75
|
5
|
0.439
|
|
TOTAL
|
|
|
268 200 000
|
8 060
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
United States
|
|
Lowest
|
300 000 000
|
43 740
|
4
|
0.948
|
HDI = Human development Index (United Nations, UNDP),
* year of occurrence of the risks, other are 2006-2007 data.
Any West African nation has experienced at least one «out
of government control political risks». A part from Senegal which has
been never confronted with coup d'etat, all other countries suffered from
coups. 5 in 15 countries (33%) have been at wars in their history. The most
recent civil wars in the region are that of Sierra Leone ended in 2002, and
Cote d'Ivoire started the same year, which is currently under post war
recovery. Liberia has drastically been destroyed by more ten years war
(1985-1995), followed by political instability. We know that civil wars per se,
are responsible of destruction of property, lost sales, disruption of
production, increased security costs, and lower productivity, to name a few.
Political upheavals are generally protracted. They may occur decades ago and
still have harmful impact on the socioeconomic situation and on foreign firms
willingness to invest.
It is true that the table did not take into account other
political risks such as ownership, and transfer risks. However, the results
point out the country's political riskiness based on the Euromoney's survey
[14]. This evaluation considered all types of political risks. Our analysis
demonstrated that 100% of West African countries are classified «high
risk», and among them 80% are classified «highest risk». There
are no countries with medium, low or lowest risks like the United States. In
that condition it is truly difficult to find an international marketer pushing
his firm to invest in West Africa, because it is a risky area.
With the population data, we show that these 15 countries
represent a market of 260 millions potential customers. But all of them cannot
even assess to new products because of the lack of foreign investments due to
the fearful situation surrounding the market. Though some countries enjoy
economic growth (average = 5%) at U.S level, the GDP per capita remains low
(average = 503.75), and the Human Development Index (HDI, encompasses
education, life expectancy and income), is one of the lowest (average = 0.439)
far behind U.S.'s figures.
Speculation about population growth is a critical issue for
future international marketing. The number of people in a particular market
provides one of the most basic indicators of market size. In the coming year,
the world population will change with Africa having the highest growth rate
(above 3%), whereas U.S. and Western Europe will remains less than 1%. Of the
World 8.47 billions people, by 2025, more than 1.2 billions will be African
[15-16]. On market size basis, market opportunities will grow in Africa. Yet,
peace is needed.
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