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Flood vulnerability assessment of donstream area in Mono basin in Yoto district, south-eastern Togo


par Abravi Essenam KISSI
University of Lome - Master 2014
  

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Dedication

To

The Living God Almighty

who by his grace has seen and guided me in my entire life and through my academic course of study to this level, the glory be to him.

To

My father Kissi Kodjo, my uncle Houngbedji Clement and my aunt

Houngbedji Clotilde, brothers and sisters

Thank you for inspiring me always to look higher

May the Lord reward you

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would like to start by thanking to WASCAL ( West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use) for offering me a scholarship, which made it possible for me to participate in the Master Programme in Climate Change and Human Security (MRP CCHS) at University of Lomé.

My special thanks go to my committee chair, Dr. Georges Abbevi ABBEY, and my committee members, Prof Amadou Thierno GAYE, and Dr. Komi AGBOKA, for his patience, unceasing and tireless efforts, his guidance and mentorship, and for his encouragement, constructive comments, remarks, suggestions and support during the writing process of this thesis.

I would like to thank our former Director Professor Adote Blim Blivi for his constructive comments and advices to give us the will and strength to be best.

I would also like to express my gratitude to my lecturers and colleagues who helped me and kept me during the two years of this Master.

I would like to sincerely thank our current Director Professor Kokou Kouami and our coordinator Dr Aklesso Egbendewe-Mondzodzo for their encouragement and support.

I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Togo Red Cross Society, Mr André Akpadja , to the team of research assistants for their effort during the process of collecting data for this study and to all the communities and households where the questionnaires were administered without whom this research would not have been possible.

I am grateful to all those who have helped directly or indirectly in the production of this thesis . I render my special thanks to my entire family especially, to my young sister, Ms Kissi Esther, to all my friends, especially, Mr Batadjaga Magloire, Mr Adjaho Iréné, Mr Kpotor Edguard, Mr Wilson-Bahun Noah, Mr Bruce Michel, Mr Etoh Kudzo Sena who listened to my complains, gave me advice and the will to go on, and made me laugh when I needed to. To you, all I owe my gratitude.

May the Almighty Bless You.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT III

RESUME IV

DEDICATION V

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS VI

TABLE OF CONTENTS VII

LIST OF FIGURES X

LIST OF TABLES XI

LIST OF MAPS XII

LIST OF PHOTO XII

CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION 1

1.1. PROBLEM STATEMENT 1

1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 4

1.3. RESEARCH QUESTIONS 4

1.4. RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS 5

1.5. THESIS STRUCTURE 5

CHAPTER II: LITERATURE REVIEW 6

2.1. HAZARDS, DISASTERS, AND VULNERABILITY 6

2.2. FLOOD VULNERABILITY FACTORS 8

2.3. METHODOLOGY FOR MEASUREMENT OF VULNERABILITY TO NATURAL HAZARDS 10

2.3.1. Theoretical and Conceptual Frameworks of Vulnerability 10

2.3.2 Indicators for Measuring Vulnerability 11

2.4. THE INDEX APPROACH TO STUDY VULNERABILITY 15

2.4.1.Existing Flood Vulnerability Index 16

CHAPTER III: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 18

3.1 THE AREA OF STUDY 18

3.1.1 Localisation 18

3.1.2. Landscape, soil and vegetation 18

3.1.3. Climate and Hydrology 21

3.1.4. Population and Economic Activities 21

3.2. METHODS 21

3.2.1. Study Population and sampling 22

3.2.2. Selected Vulnerability Conceptual Frameworks 22

3.2.3. Flood Vulnerability Indicator Development 23

3.3. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS 25

3.3.1. Primary Data Collection 25

3.3.2. Secondary Data 25

3.3.3. Data Analysis 26

3.3.3.1. Trend Analysis of Rainfall And River Discharge to Assess Climate Change. 26

3.3.3.2. Analysis of the determinants of communities' vulnerability to flood 27

3.3.3.3 Analysis of human-environmental condition 29

3.3.3.4 Computation of Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) 29

CHAPTER IV: PRESENTATION AND DISCUSSION OF RESULTS 33

4.1. EMPIRICAL FINDING ON TREND AND VARIABILITY ANALYSIS 33

4.1.1. Precipitation Time Series Analysis 33

4.1.2. Discharge Time Series Analysis 35

4.2. DETERMINANTS OF COMMUNITIES' VULNERABILITY TO FLOODS 38

4.2.1. Flood Frequency and Magnitude Analysis 38

4.2.4. Assessment of communities' vulnerability : Human-environmental conditions 42

4.2.4.1. Socio-Demographic Characteristics of Households 42

4.2.4.2 Location of settlement and type of construction 43

4.2.4.3. Livelihood patterns of respondents 44

4.2.4.4. Awareness and impacts of flood 44

4.2.4.5 Environmental conditions 45

4.2.4.6. Household coping mechanisms 46

4.2.4.7. Anticipative measures of flood occurrence 46

4.2.4.8. Training on flood hazard management 47

4.2.4.9. Household recovery time and positive effects of flood on household 47

4.2.5 Household adaptation options 48

4.2.5.1 Household's perception of Government and NGOs role in flood management 48

4.2.5.2. Household `s perception of communities role in flood management 48

4.3 COMPUTATION OF FLOOD VULNERABILITY INDEX 49

4.3.1 Identifying key indicators of developed FVI 49

4.3.2. Normalised Scores and Weight Values of Indicators 49

4.3.4. Composite vulnerability index of vulnerability factors 50

4.3.4.1. Exposure factor 50

4.3.4.2 Susceptibility Factor 51

4.3.4.3 Resilience Factor 53

CHAPTER V: CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATION 56

REFERENCES 58

ANNEXE 1 : Statistical summary of annual and monthly precipitation for Tabligbo - 1 -

ANNEXE 2: Mann-Kendall test results of annual, monthly and seasonal precipitation - 2 -

ANNEXE 3 : Statistical summary of annual and monthly flow for Athieme - 3 -

ANNEXE 4: Mann-Kendall results of annual , monthly and seasonal flow for the study area - 5 -

ANNEXE 5: Calculation for return period of 2010 flood, Mono river - 6 -

ANNEXE 6:Normalised scores of flood vulnerability indicators of each village - 7 -

ANNEXE 7: Calculated weights of flood vulnerability indicators 8

ANNEXE 8: Questionnaire for household interview 9

ANNEXE 9: Key informants interview guide. 15

VITA . 16

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